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>Subject: The Nation -Fortune fails



Subject: >Subject: The Nation -Fortune fails to favour displaced  Burmese 

>
>From: "TIN KYI" <tinkyi@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <burmanet2-l@xxxxxxxx>
>Subject: The Nation -Fortune fails to favour displaced Burmese 
>Date: Wed, 8 Sep 1999 01:42:10 +0900
>
>The Nation - Sep 8, 1999.
>Editorial & Opinion
>
>Fortune fails to favour displaced Burmese
>
>Outspoken British minister Robin Cook's cancellation of his trip to Thailand
>has robbed Burmese refugees of a valuable opportunity to further highlight
>their plight at a critical time, writes Yindee Lertcharoenchok.
>
>It came as no surprise that some Thai government agencies, particularly the
>Interior Ministry, showed hesitancy about granting British Foreign Secretary
>Robin Cook's request to visit a Burmese border refugee camp for his
>scheduled visit to Thailand this week.
>
>Cook, who yesterday cancelled his two-day trip at the last minute due to an
>emergency meeting on East Timor in New Zealand, initially planned to arrive
>here later today. He had made it known that a tour of a refugee camp would
>be part of his itinerary and Burma would be one of his talking points with
>Thai government officials.
>
>He had requested a visit to a border camp for tomorrow, Sept 9, 1999, and
>that had surprised most Thai government agencies as they are quite uneasy
>about any happening on that auspicious date.
>
>Before he cancelled his trip, he was offered a compromise -- a tour of Tham
>Hin, a border camp sheltering about 8,000 Karen refugees in Ratchaburi
>province. That was arranged for Friday instead of the requested ''9999'' --
>the jinx date which has sent jitters down the Burmese junta's spine for the
>past two months.
>
>As the 9999 ''cursed date'' closes in, the unease seems to have spread
>across the common frontier and Thai security agencies are now also bracing
>themselves in reaction to widespread rumour, prediction and speculation that
>a mass uprising will take place across Burma.
>
>In Bangkok as well as in border provinces, Thai authorities are on alert to
>prevent potential Burmese unrest or untoward violence that might occur
>simultaneously. Surveillance is in effect on major urban and border hubs of
>Burmese living in exile, and on their movements. Security along the 2,500-km
>Thai-Burmese frontier has also been beefed up, especially after the Burmese
>decision to close down major crossings with Thailand last week.
>
>As one Thai security official put it, ''the situation along the border from
>the North down to southern Ranong province has been very tense in recent
>weeks, and both sides have placed their troops on alert''.
>
>Whether the Burmese military regime truly believes a popular uprising will
>take place tomorrow remains questionable, but it certainly has left no room
>in terms of precautionary actions to weed out any sign of political unrest.
>
>In fact, some Thai and western Burma watchers have cast strong doubt that
>anything at all will happen.
>
>According to a western diplomat, Burma's 1988 pro-democracy uprising was
>spontaneous and the result of decades of suppressed popular discontent with
>the intolerable political, economic and social situation. This time all
>those factors have not ripened to encourage the people to revolt, he noted.
>Another western Burma watcher put it more clearly: ''You can't plan an
>uprising.''
>
>Interestingly, some Burma watchers agree global speculation and campaign
>provocation of a 9999 upheaval might, unfortunately, play into the junta's
>hands and provide it with a good pretext for a nationwide crackdown on
>democratic politicians and activists of the National League for Democracy.
>
>Some Thai government and security officers suspect Cook's border trip -- the
>initial requested date being on 9-9-99 -- was deliberately timed to coincide
>with the 9999 event. To them, Cook's presence at the border would have been
>''a blessing in disguise'' to the democratic Burmese movement in and outside
>of Burma, as well as ''sending a wrong signal'' to Burmese advocates of a
>9999 upheaval. The British foreign secretary is known as one of the
>strongest critics of the Burmese ruling generals and a strong supporter of
>tougher sanctions against the military regime.
>
>Cook's request to visit the camp on Sept 9 had provided Thai officials with
>further concern in that the 9999 date has raised worries the world over
>because computer software could have difficulty reading and interpreting
>information on that particular date -- the same technical problem as the Y2K
>bug. Many commercial and official flights, including those of Cook's Thai
>hosts, have been cancelled for that day to avoid potential or unexpected
>difficulties arising from a wrong computer reading of the 9999 figure.
>
>For Cook and his team, their visit to the border camp could have gone beyond
>giving mere moral and material support to the refugees. The Burmese
>fugitives themselves would get the chance to explain their plight, the cause
>of their flight across the border and their future as they see it,
>particularly on being repatriated to Burma.
>
>Moreover, Cook would have had a good opportunity to learn more about another
>potential ''human crisis'' arising inside Burma. As several ethnic refugee
>organisations have stated in recent situation reports, a more pressing
>problem that requires urgent global attention and action is assistance for
>hundreds of thousands of internally displaced Burmese.
>
>These ethnic relief groups have in recent months called for assistance to
>alleviate the suffering and severe food and medical shortages confronting
>displaced ethnic groups uprooted from their villages and forced into hiding
>along the rugged Thai-Burmese border as a consequence of the junta's
>systematic relocation and forced labour policy.
>
>Their most recent rough estimate of the displaced -- in 1996-1997 -- was
>300,000 Shan in Burma's northeastern Shan State, 80,000 Karenni, 300,000
>Karen, and 50,000 Mon. The figures are said to have increased in the past
>two years.
>
>If Cook had been able to visit the camp, no matter how briefly, it would
>have provided him with a full picture of the overall condition of the
>estimated 100,000 Burmese refugees and nearly a million internally displaced
>Burmese, and offered a window to learn first-hand of the real deteriorating
>situation in Burma and why the refugees do not want to go home to all manner
>of official harassment against their own family members and relatives.
>
>
>
>