Asia week - Who Rules on the Ground

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Subject: Asia week - Who Rules on the Ground?

Asia Week
SEPTEMBER 3, 1999 VOL. 25 NO. 35

Who Rules on the Ground?
The power of Myanmar's area commanders

By ROGER MITTON Yangon

THEY ARE TOUGH TO dialogue with, but they are not dinosaurs and they wield
extraordinary power." The Yangon-based ambassador is talking about a
low-profile but high-powered group who look after Myanmar's large,
disparate, resource-rich - and often rebellious - regions: the area
commanders. Together with seven better-known leaders like Than Shwe, Maung
Aye and Khin Nyunt, the 12 regional generals sit on the ruling State Peace
and Development Council. Their influence on national policy pales beside
that of the Yangon hierarchy, but in the regions they rule.

"The commanders really govern the country," says a Yangon businessman. "The
cabinet is just an assembly of figureheads, perhaps with the exception of
Foreign Minister Win Aung." And the post of area commander can be a stepping
stone to greater things; junta head Than Shwe was the Pathein-based
South-West commander in 1980-1985. Says a diplomat: "Area command is the
route to power."

The 12 commanders take a low profile in the capital - they rarely go there
and some avoid it as much as possible. Myeik-based Sit Maung of the Coastal
Region Command complains of too many directives from Yangon and is apt to
give them short shrift. With this independent streak, coupled with the
distance from the capital and the loyalty they receive from their men, area
commanders get respect from Yangon. They tend to be left alone, as long as
their region is stable and corruption contained. Commanders vet business
contracts, resource extraction, property development, schools, markets, and
road- and bridge-building. They control police, security and intelligence
operations; no one moves in their area without their nod. This power offers
gains - military, political and material.

In the decade since ex-dictator Ne Win's barmy socialism gave way to
deal-making, junta leaders have watched their upcountry colleagues grow
wealthy and in some cases very antsy. Things came to a head in late 1997;
several commanders were "demoted" to cabinet posts in Yangon, like Kyi Aung
and Saw Lwin (now ministers for information and tourism). Their commands
went to younger men who showed more rectitude and fidelity. As well, some
commanders brought into the cabinet before 1997 were sacked for rampant
corruption. Most, like Tun Kyi and Kyaw Ba, who ran the Commerce and Tourism
ministries, had already got rich as regional commanders.

"Both Tun Kyi and Kyaw Ba often refused requests from the center when they
were commanders," recalls a government official. Timber, for instance, is a
big state revenue earner - and a lucrative spin-off for area commanders, who
decide how much wood goes out of any region. "As the economy languishes,
area commanders are cutting deals in logging," says a diplomat. But Forestry
Minister Aung Phone told Asiaweek: "We have no difficulties with the area
commanders. We tell them how much can be cut. They work with us."

U.S.-based academic Mary Callahan, who has studied the Myanmar military,
believes: "Ongoing tensions between the junta leaders and the upcountry
commanders may not be resolvable by cabinet and command reshuffles. If the
center wants greater control over resources and the commanders balk, the
regime will have to find some kind of compensation for commanders to give up
their power and wealth." Some think the armed forces may revert to the
pre-1988 practice of moving the commanders around every three years.

The ultimate junta nightmare is secret collusion among commanders. Adds
another Yangon professional: "Myanmar politics has not progressed beyond the
raw power dimension. While the commanders may not have the intention, they
do have the capability to produce political change." To forestall this, the
top leaders brought all the commanders into the nation's ruling council in
late 1997.

A local editor notes: "The commanders are mostly educated, in their fifties.
They are inaccessible to media - but not to businessmen. Their priority is
security." Many are closer to army boss Maung Aye than other junta
stalwarts, especially in the skirmish-prone border areas. The "white-collar"
Khin Nyunt makes regular visits, but, says a businessman, "Maung Aye
appointed the commanders and relies on them as his powerbase." Under him,
the military has expanded over the past decade to around 430,000 men,
deploying large regional garrisons rather than relying on a rapid reaction
force from the center.

Most of the commanders speak English, but are cautious with outsiders. Those
who are effective but prickly are consigned to less rewarding areas. The
uncompromising, long-serving Western commander Aung Htwe is in Sittwe, "the
equivalent of being posted to Kosovo," as a diplomat puts it. There are
endemic troubles in this largely Muslim region.

Other generals are viewed as future national leaders. Ye Myint, the
Mandalay-based Central commander, is said to be in line to replace
Secretary-2 Tin Oo. In the South-East, Mawlamyine-based Myint Aung, the
youngest commander and a former top cadet, could be the next Khin Nyunt.
Indeed, for Myanmar's future leaders, the place to look is the regional
commands. However, this dominant dozen won't talk much and seems quite happy
to stay out of the limelight - for now.