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THE ARMY DIGS IN(FEER)
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Burma
THE ARMY DIGS IN
Rangoon's neighbours hoped its junta would yield to 'constructive engagement.'
Instead it's gearing up for more repression.
By Bertil Lintner in Bangkok
Far Eastern Economic REVIEW (online edition), cover dated September 2, 1999
Burmese dissidents in exile are predicting that
September 9--the numerologically significant
9-9-99--will be the day the masses in Burma again rise
up against the junta. They base their hopes on a
similarly auspicious date 11 years ago--August 8,
1988--when massive pro-democracy demonstrations
began in Rangoon and spread across the country, until
they were brutally crushed by the army a month later.
Most political analysts, however, see more tangible
signs that precisely the opposite will happen: The
Burmese opposition has no chance of organizing any
protests because the rulers in Rangoon have set their
face against dialogue with their opponents and are
tightening their grip on the impoverished country.
Already, the government has rounded up 120
pro-democracy activists all over the country in the
run-up to September 9, according to a statement issued
by the underground All-Burma Students' Democratic
Front.
But the most unmistakable sign of the junta's intentions
is the expansion of the armed forces, especially the
powerful military-intelligence apparatus. In the late
1980s, before the August 8 uprising, Burma's armed
forces totalled about 195,000 men. Today, the number
is 450,000, according to Maung Aung Myoe, a
Burmese researcher completing his doctoral thesis on
Burma's military at the Australian National University in
Canberra.
The army alone now has 422 infantry battalions
supported by three artillery divisions and one armoured
division--more than twice as many as 11 years ago.
The number of military-intelligence battalions,
meanwhile, has increased to 33 from 23 in 1988. The
military-intelligence apparatus also includes nine special
departments, based in Rangoon, that look after such
areas as foreign relations, information coordination,
counter-terrorism and strategic planning. In the past
decade, the government has bought vast quantities of
military hardware--jet fighters, tanks, anti-aircraft guns,
artillery pieces, naval patrol boats--mainly from China.
The build-up of all this military muscle contrasts sharply
with the belief of many governments and multilateral
agencies that conciliation and mediation will persuade
Burma's generals to negotiate with its democrats. The
European Union and the United States insist that
diplomatic and economic pressure will push the
generals to the negotiating table. The Association of
Southeast Asian Nations argues that "constructive
engagement" with the junta will work better than
sanctions and condemnation. On an August visit to
Rangoon, Australia's human-rights commissioner, Chris
Sidoti, even proposed that the Burmese government set
up its own human-rights body, modelled after a
commission established in Indonesia in 1993 when the
Suharto regime was still solidly entrenched.
Diplomats and Burma-watchers in Southeast Asia
dismiss these hopes as pious. Rangoon's leaders are
military men, says an Asian diplomat based in Bangkok.
"As far as they are concerned, they have won the battle
against the democracy movement and they see no
reason why they should give that up by accepting some
kind of compromise with the opposition. And if there's
a dialogue, it's a dialogue of the deaf, because only the
opposition, and foreigners, are doing the talking. The
generals talk only to themselves."
The junta has acquired increasingly sophisticated means
to maintain its grip on power. A vital part of its
military-intelligence apparatus is the information
department, dubbed the "cyber-warfare centre" by
Burma-watchers. Western intelligence sources say the
centre, located in the Defence Ministry's compound in
Rangoon, is the largest computer facility in Burma.
According to Desmond Ball, a professor at the ANU
and an expert on signals intelligence, the centre can
intercept all sorts of telephone and fax messages as well
as e-mail and radio communications.
International telecommunications with Burma pass
through two satellite ground stations in Syriam, a town
across the river from Rangoon. Robert Karniol,
Asia-Pacific editor of Jane's Defence Weekly, says:
"Perhaps two years ago, a new capability was
introduced, allowing Burma's military intelligence to
monitor even satellite phones . . . by using Inmarsat and
similar direct satellite-telecommunication systems." The
equipment, intelligence sources say, was supplied by a
Singapore-based company, which is also providing
on-site training. Adds an Asian diplomat in Rangoon:
"Since Burma has no external enemies, this build-up is
meant for only one purpose: to make sure that the
military remains in power and that it would never again
have to face the kind of massive, popular outburst of
anti-government sentiment it did in 1988."
Significantly, many of the 33 military-intelligence
battalions are stationed in towns and cities in the
Burmese heartland, the centre of opposition to the
regime, rather than in the frontier areas, where ethnic
insurgents were active for many years but now have
been largely defeated or marginalized. "Moreover, there
are informers in every neighbourhood, every school
compound and every Buddhist monastery in the
country," says a Western intelligence source. "This
makes it almost impossible even to organize any kind of
political movement, even underground cells."
Even a collapsing economy is not denting the junta's
hard line. Contracted foreign investment in Burma has
fallen to $29.5 million so far this year from $774 million
last year, according to a recent report from a Western
embassy in Rangoon. Inflation is running at 40%, with
the consumer price index for rice--the key staple--up
an annualized 60% in February. According to the
embassy's report, plans for Burmese gas exports to
generate foreign exchange are foundering: Burma and
Thailand can't agree on payment terms for supplies
from a giant gas project that is being developed off the
Burmese coast by Total of France and Unocal of the
U.S.
But the junta has an answer to the collapse of its
experiment with free-market economics: It's now
putting more emphasis on raising agricultural output than
meeting the concerns of foreign investors, the embassy
report says. Foreign businessmen say visas for Burma
are now harder to get.
The new focus on agriculture seems to be aimed at
boosting paddy output and achieving self-sufficiency in
rice. The generals seem to believe that food security,
massive intelligence gathering, intense surveillance of the
population, intimidation and arrests will enable them to
remain in power indefinitely. Meanwhile, they pay lip
service to outsiders' overtures--agreeing to "consider"
Australia's proposal for a human-rights commission, for
example--while wishful thinkers continue to look for
signs of change.
__________________________
Far Eastern Economic Review Interactive Edition
http://www.feer.com/
All Rights Reserved. Copyright, Review Publishing Company Ltd,
Hong Kong, 1999. A wholly-owned subsidiary of Dow Jones and
Company Incorporated.
Internet ProLink PC User
--=====================_15279664==_.ALT
Content-Type: text/html; charset="us-ascii"
<html>
Burma<br>
THE ARMY DIGS IN<br>
<br>
Rangoon's neighbours hoped its junta would yield to 'constructive
engagement.' Instead it's gearing up for more repression. <br>
<br>
By Bertil Lintner in Bangkok<br>
<br>
Far Eastern Economic REVIEW (online edition), cover dated September 2,
1999 <br>
<br>
Burmese dissidents in exile are predicting that<br>
September 9--the numerologically significant<br>
9-9-99--will be the day the masses in Burma again rise<br>
up against the junta. They base their hopes on a<br>
similarly auspicious date 11 years ago--August 8,<br>
1988--when massive pro-democracy demonstrations<br>
began in Rangoon and spread across the country, until<br>
they were brutally crushed by the army a month later. <br>
<br>
Most political analysts, however, see more tangible<br>
signs that precisely the opposite will happen: The<br>
Burmese opposition has no chance of organizing any<br>
protests because the rulers in Rangoon have set their<br>
face against dialogue with their opponents and are<br>
tightening their grip on the impoverished country.<br>
Already, the government has rounded up 120<br>
pro-democracy activists all over the country in the<br>
run-up to September 9, according to a statement issued<br>
by the underground All-Burma Students' Democratic<br>
Front. <br>
<br>
But the most unmistakable sign of the junta's intentions<br>
is the expansion of the armed forces, especially the<br>
powerful military-intelligence apparatus. In the late<br>
1980s, before the August 8 uprising, Burma's armed<br>
forces totalled about 195,000 men. Today, the number<br>
is 450,000, according to Maung Aung Myoe, a<br>
Burmese researcher completing his doctoral thesis on<br>
Burma's military at the Australian National University in<br>
Canberra.<br>
<br>
The army alone now has 422 infantry battalions<br>
supported by three artillery divisions and one armoured<br>
division--more than twice as many as 11 years ago.<br>
The number of military-intelligence battalions,<br>
meanwhile, has increased to 33 from 23 in 1988. The<br>
military-intelligence apparatus also includes nine special<br>
departments, based in Rangoon, that look after such<br>
areas as foreign relations, information coordination,<br>
counter-terrorism and strategic planning. In the past<br>
decade, the government has bought vast quantities of<br>
military hardware--jet fighters, tanks, anti-aircraft guns,<br>
artillery pieces, naval patrol boats--mainly from China.<br>
<br>
The build-up of all this military muscle contrasts sharply<br>
with the belief of many governments and multilateral<br>
agencies that conciliation and mediation will persuade<br>
Burma's generals to negotiate with its democrats. The<br>
European Union and the United States insist that<br>
diplomatic and economic pressure will push the<br>
generals to the negotiating table. The Association of<br>
Southeast Asian Nations argues that "constructive<br>
engagement" with the junta will work better than<br>
sanctions and condemnation. On an August visit to<br>
Rangoon, Australia's human-rights commissioner, Chris<br>
Sidoti, even proposed that the Burmese government set<br>
up its own human-rights body, modelled after a<br>
commission established in Indonesia in 1993 when the<br>
Suharto regime was still solidly entrenched. <br>
<br>
Diplomats and Burma-watchers in Southeast Asia<br>
dismiss these hopes as pious. Rangoon's leaders are<br>
military men, says an Asian diplomat based in Bangkok.<br>
"As far as they are concerned, they have won the battle<br>
against the democracy movement and they see no<br>
reason why they should give that up by accepting some<br>
kind of compromise with the opposition. And if there's<br>
a dialogue, it's a dialogue of the deaf, because only the<br>
opposition, and foreigners, are doing the talking. The<br>
generals talk only to themselves." <br>
<br>
The junta has acquired increasingly sophisticated means<br>
to maintain its grip on power. A vital part of its<br>
military-intelligence apparatus is the information<br>
department, dubbed the "cyber-warfare centre" by<br>
Burma-watchers. Western intelligence sources say the<br>
centre, located in the Defence Ministry's compound in<br>
Rangoon, is the largest computer facility in Burma.<br>
According to Desmond Ball, a professor at the ANU<br>
and an expert on signals intelligence, the centre can<br>
intercept all sorts of telephone and fax messages as well<br>
as e-mail and radio communications.<br>
<br>
International telecommunications with Burma pass<br>
through two satellite ground stations in Syriam, a town<br>
across the river from Rangoon. Robert Karniol,<br>
Asia-Pacific editor of Jane's Defence Weekly, says:<br>
"Perhaps two years ago, a new capability was<br>
introduced, allowing Burma's military intelligence to<br>
monitor even satellite phones . . . by using Inmarsat and<br>
similar direct satellite-telecommunication systems." The<br>
equipment, intelligence sources say, was supplied by a<br>
Singapore-based company, which is also providing<br>
on-site training. Adds an Asian diplomat in Rangoon:<br>
"Since Burma has no external enemies, this build-up is<br>
meant for only one purpose: to make sure that the<br>
military remains in power and that it would never again<br>
have to face the kind of massive, popular outburst of<br>
anti-government sentiment it did in 1988."<br>
<br>
Significantly, many of the 33 military-intelligence<br>
battalions are stationed in towns and cities in the<br>
Burmese heartland, the centre of opposition to the<br>
regime, rather than in the frontier areas, where ethnic<br>
insurgents were active for many years but now have<br>
been largely defeated or marginalized. "Moreover, there<br>
are informers in every neighbourhood, every school<br>
compound and every Buddhist monastery in the<br>
country," says a Western intelligence source. "This<br>
makes it almost impossible even to organize any kind of<br>
political movement, even underground cells." <br>
<br>
Even a collapsing economy is not denting the junta's<br>
hard line. Contracted foreign investment in Burma has<br>
fallen to $29.5 million so far this year from $774 million<br>
last year, according to a recent report from a Western<br>
embassy in Rangoon. Inflation is running at 40%, with<br>
the consumer price index for rice--the key staple--up<br>
an annualized 60% in February. According to the<br>
embassy's report, plans for Burmese gas exports to<br>
generate foreign exchange are foundering: Burma and<br>
Thailand can't agree on payment terms for supplies<br>
from a giant gas project that is being developed off the<br>
Burmese coast by Total of France and Unocal of the<br>
U.S.<br>
<br>
But the junta has an answer to the collapse of its<br>
experiment with free-market economics: It's now<br>
putting more emphasis on raising agricultural output than<br>
meeting the concerns of foreign investors, the embassy<br>
report says. Foreign businessmen say visas for Burma<br>
are now harder to get. <br>
<br>
The new focus on agriculture seems to be aimed at<br>
boosting paddy output and achieving self-sufficiency in<br>
rice. The generals seem to believe that food security,<br>
massive intelligence gathering, intense surveillance of the<br>
population, intimidation and arrests will enable them to<br>
remain in power indefinitely. Meanwhile, they pay lip<br>
service to outsiders' overtures--agreeing to "consider"<br>
Australia's proposal for a human-rights commission, for<br>
example--while wishful thinkers continue to look for<br>
signs of change.<br>
<br>
__________________________<br>
<br>
Far Eastern Economic Review Interactive Edition <br>
<br>
<font color="#0000FF"><u><a href="http://www.feer.com/" eudora="autourl">http://www.feer.com/<br>
</a></font></u>All Rights Reserved. Copyright, Review Publishing Company
Ltd, <br>
Hong Kong, 1999. A wholly-owned subsidiary of Dow Jones and <br>
Company Incorporated.<br>
<br>
<div>Internet ProLink PC User</div>
</html>
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