Reuters-ANALYSIS-Little alarm over

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Subject: Reuters-ANALYSIS-Little alarm over Myanmar 9-9-99 call 

ANALYSIS-Little alarm over Myanmar 9-9-99 call
04:22 a.m. Aug 17, 1999 Eastern
By David Brunnstrom

BANGKOK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Myanmar dissidents in exile have picked
September 9, 1999 for a repeat of a ``people power'' uprising 11 years ago
that shook the foundations of authoritarian rule but was ultimately crushed
at the cost of thousands of lives.

Their call to arms on the so-called ``four nines day'' looks like a triumph
of hope over long and bitter experience.

The Myanmar military's whole raison d'etre since it seized direct power on
September 18, 1988, has been to prevent a return to ``anarchy'' it says
ruled that year, when millions took to the streets to demand an end to
decades of authoritarian rule.

It crushed the revolt with bullets and bayonets and has since detained
thousands of dissidents, shut colleges and universities, ignored an election
result and endured consequent pariah status overseas rather than surrender
power.

Historians say the trigger for the 1988 uprising was a call by underground
students for a general strike that August 8 -- the so-called ``four eights
day'' -- via a report carried by the British Broadcasting Corporation.

A similar call has again been carried in recent weeks by foreign radio
stations many in the country rely on for independent news beyond the tightly
controlled state media.

Diplomats, dissidents and other Myanmar watchers say the message has once
again hit home and caught the popular imagination, but the military is far
better prepared this time.

In the past decade it has not only doubled the size of the armed forces to
an estimated 450,000 personnel, but greatly increased the pervasive
surveillance activity of its intelligence arm -- the Directorate of Defence
Services Intelligence.

This has involved infiltration of dissident groups and sophisticated
monitoring of phone and e-mail links, analysts say.

``In 1988, the government was surprised and that will never happen again,''
said a diplomat in the Myanmar capital Yangon.


  ``The government has got pretty good links into all underground groups and
anti-government groups both here and
abroad. It has tabs on everything it has to have tabs on.''

Myanmar scholar and journalist Bertil Lintner, author of an acclaimed
account of the 1988 uprising, said he could envisage some minor scattered
incidents of protest next month.

``What is likely to happen is a few things here and there that will be
crushed. I can't see anything that remotely resembles the situation in 1988.

``I don't think the public will risk taking part in anything that will get
them shot unless they are sure to win,'' he said.

``And they could only win if a considerable part of the army decided to side
with them and there's no indication of that.''

Even so, the government is clearly concerned enough to take preemptive
action, including detentions of activists, a tightening of provincial
security and even the broadcast of loudspeaker warnings to people not to
join any protests.

Dissident groups say more than 150 people have been detained for
anti-government activity in the past two weeks.

The government said last week it had arrested four people in uncovering a
plot to instigate unrest next month and had detained others for questioning.
It said investigations were continuing.

Earlier this month it warned the main opposition party, the National League
for Democracy (NLD), not to get involved in any unrest.

A state media commentary accused its leader Aung San Suu Kyi of sowing
discord and reiterated a call for legal action against the 1991 Nobel Peace
laureate, who it kept under house arrest for six years until 1995.

The NLD has distanced itself from calls for civil unrest, and the
government, in a tacit recognition of the party's popular clout, said
publicly last week that the NLD leadership had told its members not to take
part.

The All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF), among the exiles pushing
the 9-9-99 campaign, said the aim was to push the military into dialogue
with the NLD, which it has long resisted.

``We need various kinds of pressure and that pressure may be street
demonstrations and that pressure may be a shut down strike,'' said ABSDF
general secretary Aung Thu Nyein. ``We call on the people to do whatever
they can.

``I think the situation is ripe now -- the economic, political and social
situation -- this is the time that the military to think about changing
things in the country.''

He did not believe there was a risk of a repeat of the 1998 bloodshed. ``If
the authorities order the soldiers to shoot the demonstrators again I don't
think they will.''

Others aren't so sure.

While the authorities demonstrated more sophisticated techniques in dealing
with the last big round of student protests in 1996 -- employing water
cannon instead of live ammunition, this moderation might be tested by larger
protests.

``If it were to turn out to be a repetition of what happened in 1988, I
think they might feel they had no choice but to shoot,'' said one Myanmar
exile.