MY ANALYSIS ON THE BURMESE SITUATIO (r)

[Rangoonp@xxxxxxx]

Subject: MY ANALYSIS ON THE BURMESE SITUATION

MY ANALYSIS ON THE BURMESE SITUATION
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By  Julien Moe
13 August 1999

Once Burma was totally shut down to the outside world during the Ne Win
era.
Burma was like a caged bird in terms of politics and economy. In terms
of
education, students including myself had no choice but had to take
political
science, the brainwasher course of the BSPP [ Burmese Socialist
Programme
Party]. What was in the course? The course was largely based on how Ne
Win's
army prevented the nation from drowning and disintegrating. Students
were
forced to become members of the party and so were civil servants.  Ne
Win ,
the most megalomaniac person ever known decided to demonetise the
Burmese
currencies on his own will for the purpose of  deterring high inflation
rates while printing more paper money notes. The whole nation uprose
against
his government with the leadership of the students. The only remedy to
defuse such a political upheaval was using force. Puppet civilian
President
Mg Mg was appointedby Ne Win. The Burmese students and the people were
not
as stupid as he might have thought. The uprising led by the students
raged
on despite Ne Win's abdication and appointment of a new civilian puppet
during the coup. The international media reported that there were coups
but
in fact the coups staged were intended against the people, not agaist
the
civilian government led by Ne Win or the government led by Mg Mg.
Because it
was Ne Win's poker game. Only the Burmese observers would know it
better.

After killing thousands of students during the uprising and detaining
numerous student activists and dissidents, SLORC led by General Saw Mg 
came
to power. As Saw Mg was incompetent, he was forced to resign and General
Than Shwe replaced him. Yet the international community and many Burmese
believe Ne Win is still behind the scene. Lt. General Khin Nyunt who was
an escort to Ne Win became an influential figure. His control and
direction of the intelligence services rendered him  more power,
legitimacy
and  authority to expand his intelligence services by forming OSS [
Office
of Strategic Services] , the most sophisticated intelligence branch that
is
composed of army officers and educated intellects. OSS have become a
pivotal
branch in the government even in nominations and appointing officials in
the
government and diplomats abroad. To exercise freedom of press only in
the
government's name became an indispensable  responsibility for OSS to
wage a
propaganda war against  Aung San Suu Kyi and NLD,her party,  and
dissident
groups who are trying to influence the Burmese situation. In 1996, SLORC
under the guidance of Lt. General Khin Nyunt, released Aung San Suu Kyi
from
under house arrest with a view to  have international sanctions lifted.
Yet
due to continuous human rights abuses by the regime, sanctions stayed on
and
the regime used ASEAN as a shield against international criticism. 

Until today the regime is determined to hang on to power despite harsh
international criticism and actual sanctions imposed on it. This is the
regime that will change when it reckons that the right time has come.
The
regime will not change due to international criticism or the impact
imposed
by the dissident groups. Confrontations won't work with this regime but
confontation is the only solution so far for the opposition to resolve
the
political gridlock because the regime is not listening to th
opposition's
request to start a dialogue.

Today the regime is enjoying the favourble status granted by ASEAN and
China. The reason for the regime to find to hand over power to NLD is
none
to be found because this is the regime that has realised what it is like
to
be in power. The revolution carrired out by the students and the Burmese
people  so as to bring change to Burma won't be as easy as planners of
the
9/9/99 reckon. No wonder many observers and dissident groups who have
never
believed in the armed struggle now have initiatives in what seems
impossible. Yet who is going to fund them is a serious question to be
asked
and is it the world that is irresponsible to see Burma in chaos or is it
all
just the the fate of the Burmese people to suffer under such a regime
that
thinks of nothing but to be in power. I believe that half of everything
is
luck and the other half is "work".. That's Burma today.