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MAILBAG:FRIENDS & ENEMIES OF THE DE



Subject: MAILBAG:FRIENDS & ENEMIES OF THE DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT

Dear Julien,

Dont be tempted to oversimplify the situation.   Obviously, there are
supporters of Burmese democracy among the Indian government officials (eg,
George Fernandez), as well as in Thailand (MP Supatra), etc., just as there
are its enemies in the US and Europe (eg, Tony Hall-US, and many in Europe
who do business with the SPDC).  We must cultivate individuals.

However, you are correct about the failure of the democratic forces to court
the Thai politicians.  The SPDC has a much bigger lobby.  I am now trying to
translate the MOJO into Thai for distribution to government and military and
academics.

Thanks for your news stories and comments.

John  

At 05:03 PM 7/14/99 -0400, you wrote:
>International Affairs: Burma & its Allies
>14th July 1999
>                                                                            
>                       When we talk  about the international relations
>related to Burma, we cannot sideline China at all. China has been quite a
>supporter of Burma receiving technological transfer and interest-free loans
>and technical assistance and intelligence trainings. China and Burma do
>share intelligence with each other.Burma , in the national interest of the
>United States , is a strategic zone for the United States , the adversary of
>PRC. On the other hand ASEAN does not have good relations with China.  You
>all have noticed how the CIA agents approached Khun Sa before he turned
>himself  in to the Burmese government. If you would like to play well on the
>international stage in revolting against  the Burmese military  regime, you
>have got to know the international  relations like your pocket. Thailand can
>be the Chair of the ASEAN for the next round. Why the democratically elected
>Burmese  opposition and the international community have not tried anything
>effective to influence the Thai government is a question left unanswered. 
>
>Thailand plays a more pivotal role in the ASEAN/Burma game more than any
>other member nation. Thailand is always cautious in its policy toward Burma.
>Thailand has always been cautious about the provokings of the military
>junata in Burma. The more cautious it is, the more favourable the policy
>becomes. For the democratic Burmese opposition it is a bad omen. As a matter
>of fact, Thailand is rather a democratic country in Southeast Asia despite
>frequent coups that interrupt the growing economy. Very favourably for the

>Burmese opposition , the role of the military in Thai politics is fading.
>Recent political  upheaval in Indonesia made the Burmese  military brasshats
>think twice about its copycat  economic reforms a la militaire. India on the
>other hand was in favour of the democratic Burmese opposition. After second
>thoughts on trade and security concerns, Indian leadership seems to have
>changed their mind to prescribe a favourable policy towards the military
>government in Burma. Nowadays the two governments exchange intelligence.
>Bangladesh has never examined its policy toward Burma. Burma does not seem
>to be concerned about Bangladesh either save  the Rohinja problem. Laos does
>not seem to count for the Burmese authorities. 
>
>On the whole China, ASEAN nations [ Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia,
>Laos, Malaysia,
>Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam], and India seem to be quite a
>combined force deterring the Burmese democratic process commenced by the
>1988 student generation. There is no doubt that these are the nation states
>that are enemies of the democratic forces trying to bring freedom and
>democracy in Burma. On the other hand the democratic forces have allies like
>the United States, EU and the UN. Whose strategy  should be enhanced is so
>obvious. Knowledge is power but to act is an auspicious step toward a
>volatile politcal climate.
>
>
>By Julien Moe
>