Asean to soul search in Singapore

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  Editorial & Opinion 


Asean to soul search in Singapore

AFTER two years of economic turbulence that rocked the region and shattered
the
philosophy that has united the Association of Southeast Asian Nations for so
long, the annual ministerial meeting in Singapore will provide an opportunity
for member countries to do some serious soul searching. 

And in spite of signs of economic recovery, few can get over the fact that
over
the past two years they had to sit back and watch their currencies plummet and
foreign investors pack their bags. Nevertheless, Asean is determined to regain
the clout it once had. 

But managing difficulties amid diversity will not be as easy as in the past.
With Burma, Laos and Cambodia joining the Asean family, new problems will have
to be addressed. Democratic countries like the Philippines and Thailand
have in
the recent past called for more political openness, arguing that this is the
best way to cope with new challenges in the fast-changing world. Others,
meanwhile, reject the so-called flexible engagement approach, holding dear to
the long-held tradition of not washing one's dirty laundry in public. 

At the last annual meeting in Manila, Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan had
irked
a number of Asean ministers when he publicly called for ''flexible
engagement''. That statement was directed at Burma, whose long and rugged
border infested with illicit drugs and armed rebel groups, has long served
as a
source of tension between the two countries. 

Asean secretary general Rodolfo Severino appeared to strut the middle ground
when he suggested recently that the regional grouping should speak with a
unified voice in international fora such as the International Monetary Fund,
World Trade Organisation and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation.
Essentially, this gives the bloc the appearance of unity and political clout
when dealing with the international community. 

A period of consolidation and rebuilding has, indeed, emerged. The big
question
is how to consolidate and to what extent. 

As for Thailand, Foreign Minister Surin -- who saw his Social Safety Net
Caucus
and ''flexible engagement'' shot down by fellow ministers in the past year --
will once again try to steer the bloc into a more social-oriented one.

Singapore has a different approach in mind -- something less structured --
thus, the one-day retreat to allow all the Asean ministers to reflect among
themselves before they meet their dialogue partners the following day. Soul
searching will likely be their main activity as they stroll around the golf
course contemplating the direction of the regional grouping amid new and
emerging social, political and economic challenges as the next century
approaches. 

Though the one-day retreat may not change the course of the annual meeting
significantly, the time-out will nevertheless be welcomed as the 10 ministers
use the day to make any last minute adjustments before meeting their dialogue
partners the following day. 

But convincing their partners that the 32-year-old regional body is still
relevant amid declining influence will not be easy. Pride may have to be set
aside when they ask for more economic help. During the week-long meeting
starting today, Asean ministers will reiterate their commitment to the
measures
adopted by their leaders at the Hanoi Summit last December and to remain open
in spite of the economic crisis. 

The Hanoi Action Plan, deemed as a turning point in the recovery process, was
designed to speed up regional economic integration, deal with transnational
problems such as the environment and to lessen the social impact of the
financial crisis brought on by mismanagement and weak economic fundamentals.
But because the ''Asean way'' means going along with the lowest common
denominator, the Plan may not achieve its real intentions. 

Like in the previous Post-ministerial Conference, Western countries are likely
to come down hard on certain Asean members who have little respect for the
human rights of their citizens. Burma usually comes to mind but it is not
clear
whether the topic will steal the show at this annual meeting. 
Long-time friend China, meanwhile, is likely to test Asean sincerity amid
growing tension between Beijing and Taipei. Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui has
recently urged the international community to give his island state, which
Beijing considers a renegade, equal standing with mainland China. The regional
grouping is likely to reiterate their one-China policy when they face Beijing
at the Asean Regional Forum, a platform for discussing security issues.
Anything less then a firm commitment to the sacred policy is likely to invite
Beijing's wrath. 

On the issue of the disputed territory claims in the South China Sea, Beijing
will insist, as always, that ARF is not the proper place to discuss the
matter.
China has consistently said it would like to see claimants sit with them and
discuss the dispute bilaterally. The Spratlys, situated on vital sea lanes,
are
claimed in whole or in part by Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Taiwan
and Vietnam. 

With the Philippines and Vietnam at loggerheads with Malaysia in recent weeks
over the oil-rich Spratly, in which fellow Asean members were accused of
violating their countries' sovereignty, a prickly debate on this issue in the
ARF is unavoidable. Hanoi and Manila are expected to present a joint-prepared
paper outlining the principles and concept of preventive diplomacy to be

applied for all claimants of the Spratlys. 

During the ARF meeting, Asean will likely reiterate its determination to
continue to be the key forum for security dialogue and cooperation in the
region and making Asean the main driving force for the security body.
Discussions between Asean members and the dialogue partners over the extent of
how far ARF should be institutionalised is likely to continue. 

Western partners, who see themselves as equal participants instead of guests,
would like to see the nature of the forum go beyond being a talk-shop and
adopt
a more meaningful mandate aimed at resolving conflict rather than managing it.
As the next century approaches, Asean ministers know that outstanding disputes
of the previous decade have yet to go away and these problems may require some
political will from their leaders if the grouping is to move forward. 

All have acknowledged that the economic crisis, one of the worst in decades,
has affected the grouping's reputation and that great efforts will be
needed in
order to restore the confidence to attract the much needed foreign investment
as prescribed in the framework agreement on the Asean Investment Area. An
early-warning system for potential problems has been established to monitor
sudden shift in economic indicators. 

And by the middle of next week, all should become clear as to what pace and
direction the three-decade old regional bloc will take as it enters the next
millennium. 

BY DON PATHAN 

The Nation