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Reuters-ANALYSIS-Myanmar political



Subject: Reuters-ANALYSIS-Myanmar political reconciliation set back

ANALYSIS-Myanmar political reconciliation set back
01:33 a.m. Feb 28, 1999 Eastern
By Rajan Moses

YANGON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Myanmar's opposition and military rulers are
unlikely to be reconciled while demands by pro-democracy forces for the
convening of a People's Parliament remain on the table, Yangon-based experts
said.

In harsh response to that demand from Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for
Democracy (NLD), the military has now launched a more damaging offensive,
striking at the heart of the NLD's membership and core organisational
structure, they said.

``Since the NLD floated the People's Parliament proposal, the regime has
stepped up its pressure on the NLD...forcing members to resign and
dismantling township NLD bodies,'' a diplomat from a Western country told
Reuters.

``This has been quite effective. It has made it increasingly difficult for
the NLD to operate as a political party. There is a lot of pessimism. It is
hard to envisage the regime will at this point agree to uphold results of
the 1990 elections,'' he said.

Suu Kyi says about 150 of NLD members of parliament elected in the 1990
general election, which the party swept but the military has refused to
recognise, are in detention.

The military was coercing members daily, offering them bribes and using
emotional blackmail to leave the party. About 17 MPs had quit, she told
visiting correspondents last Friday.

A government spokesman said 101 NLD MPs were under detention for national
security reasons -- to stop them from adhering to NLD demands for assembling
of a parallel government via the Peoples' Parliament, a proposal flatly
rejected by the ruling State Peace and Development Council.

``This call for a parliament may have been a tactical error. Now Suu Kyi and
NLD have incurred the wrath of the military and are further away from
dialogue or reconciliation than ever before. The military just won't have
it,'' said an Asian diplomat.

``From what I have heard, even some of the Western supporters of the NLD are
concerned about this impasse caused by the parliament call and about where
all this is heading,'' he said.

Other analysts said the latest military offensive against Suu Kyi and her
party was unlikely to lead to her re-arrest or deportation in the near
future as widely rumoured.

``The NLD will remain a symbolic expression of popular dissatisfaction...of
popular desire for change. In that respect even if the NLD is destroyed
organisationally, as long as you have Suu Kyi in place, she will play that
(symbolic) role,'' said the western diplomat.

The Asian diplomat said that at some time in the future, when the military
was confident enough and ready to share power, it could hold dialogue with
Suu Kyi and her party. That is why it needed the Nobel laureate and
grand-daughter of independence hero Aung San to remain as a symbolic
necessity for now.

Despite setbacks, Suu Kyi vows to see through the People's Parliament
despite heavier military pressure. The military must honour the results of
the 1990 polls and the people's choice.

Suu Kyi also believes there will be dialogue between the two sides, sometime
in the future, although the political test of wills and stalemate was being
painfully prolonged.

Government spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Hla Min said the People's Parliament
card held out by the NLD was unacceptable as it meant a parallel government
would be set up. That proposal must be dropped before any reconciliation can
re-start.

Diplomats project a grim political future ahead.

One factor that could change the political landscape would be a crack in the
ruling military's ranks, they said. While not excluding any military split
or coup at any time, they noted the ruling generals have been and remain a
tightly knit group.

Contagion from the Asian economic crisis on Myanmar, which some foreign
critics believe could sow the seeds of mass unrest or uprisings, was seen
unlikely.

``Poverty has been here for centuries. Food is still available and that is
what sets Myanmar apart from some other Asian countries (where there has
been mass social unrest) like in Indonesia,'' said another Asian diplomat.

Experts said Myanmar's Buddhist culture, which espouses tolerance, could
also lead to political stagnation lasting a while as the gulf between the
military and the NLD widens.