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U.S. pulls away from NLD in move to
- Subject: U.S. pulls away from NLD in move to
- From: bcn@xxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 22 Jan 1999 22:25:00
Subject: U.S. pulls away from NLD in move to shore up stability in Myanmar
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STRATFOR, "Among the firms making
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of open source intelligence.
Time magazine, January 25, page 48
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Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
January 22, 1999
U.S. pulls away from NLD in move to shore up stability in Myanmar
Summary
U.S. Representative Tony Hall, following a visit to Myanmar, said
that Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition National League
for Democracy (NLD), should not be able to veto humanitarian aid
to Myanmar. Hall, a Democrat from Ohio, made the statement in
Thailand on January 17 after his visit to Myanmar where he met
separately with both the ruling State Peace and Development
Council (SPDC) secretary general Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt
and Suu Kyi. Hall's statements, which marginalizes Suu Kyi's role
in influencing Myanmar's international relations, signal a United
States foreign policy initiative to avoid further conflict in the
region. In Myanmar, it would appear that, at least for now, the
U.S. is supporting stability over democracy.
Analysis
U.S. Representative Tony Hall visited Myanmar from January 11-14,
and met with both Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the opposition
National League for Democracy (NLD), and Lieutenant General Khin
Nyunt, secretary general of the ruling State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC). Following the visit, Hall spoke in
Bangkok, where he called for increased worldwide humanitarian aid
to Myanmar. Hall also spoke of his meetings with Suu Kyi and Khin
Nyunt. He said Suu Kyi's opposition to foreign aid to Myanmar,
which she says is just serving to prop up the military junta,
should not stop NGOs and other humanitarian aid suppliers from
operating in Myanmar. He further said that Khin Nyunt had assured
him that the SPDC was dealing gently with the opposition. Hall's
comments seem to indicate a shift in U.S. policy. The U.S., while
not actually endorsing the SPDC, is backing further away from Suu
Kyi and the NLD. While this seems contrary to U.S. foreign policy
elsewhere, a closer examination reveals the overriding reason for
the shift, a desire for stability in the area.
During the past year, tension between the NLD and the SPDC has
been heating up. The SPDC has charged that the NLD is closely
tied to ethnic rebels. Hundreds of NLD members in the past few
months have resigned, having been pressured to do so by the
ruling junta. In response, the NLD has filed suit against the
SPDC for having allegedly coerced its members to resign. Hall's
visit to Myanmar is a second attempt by the U.S. to broker
negotiations between the two parties. It comes just a few months
after a failed U.S.-backed UN initiative to settle the dispute
between the SPDC and the NLD in Myanmar by offering World Bank
funding in exchange for talks between the two groups. The
initiative was rejected soundly by Suu Kyi, who opposes all forms
of foreign aid to Myanmar until the SPDC hands over power to the
NLD.
Well known for his support of humanitarian aid and human rights,
Representative Hall, a Democrat from Ohio, favors such
initiatives in such troubled countries as Sudan, North Korea, and
Indonesia. During the last year, he has visited both Sudan and
North Korea to promote humanitarian aid and constructive
engagement. Hall is also close to President Bill Clinton,
spiritually counseling the President in recent months and joining
him at a Washington D.C. soup kitchen in the President's first
public appearance after his impeachment in December 1998. His
past pro-human rights and humanitarian record make Hall a prime
tool for the U.S. to announce such a startling change in policy.
Before going to Myanmar, Hall was already giving ground to the
SPDC, saying, "We will be talking not only about human rights,
but I also want to give the government of Burma a chance to talk
about their concerns." He also downplayed the effectiveness of
sanctions in dealing with non-democratic regimes, claiming that
sanctions almost always end up hurting the people they are trying
to protect. Of his meeting with Khin Nyunt, Hall quoted the
general as saying, "We are gentle and lenient with the
opposition."
Hall had fewer kind words describing his meeting with Suu Kyi. He
said her isolation had caused her to be out of touch with the
real problems facing Myanmar. In reference to her call for all
humanitarian aid agencies to deal with the NLD instead of the
SPDC, he indicated that her demand had caused many NGOs to leave
the country rather that get mired in political turmoil.
Hall remarked that Suu Kyi should not have control over aid. He
said, "I would not say that she should have veto power at all,
because once you start to do that and you start to have a
precedent then you are going to have problems in other countries
and that precedent should not be started in Burma."
While it may seem surprising that the U.S. would be supporting
the military junta in Myanmar over the oppressed, democratically
elected opposition party, democracy is not the only issue on the
table. There are hotspots and potential conflicts flaring up
throughout Asia. China and the Philippines, North Korea,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia and Thailand are just a few. The
U.S. is already overextended militarily around the world, and has
been dialing back its involvement in Asian disputes. It does not
want to see the situation in Myanmar get worse. Geographically,
Myanmar controls the entrance to the Andaman Sea, at the mouth of
the Straits of Malacca. Myanmar also shares long borders with
Thailand, China, and the India. It is the buffer between South
Asia and the Indian subcontinent. As the back door to Asia, it
must remain, if not an ally of the U.S., then at least a stable
nation.
It is interesting to contrast this with the U.S. policy toward
Malaysia, where the U.S. backing of the reform movement is not
politically but rather economically motivated. With Malaysia
trying to lead South Asia on an economic path contrary to U.S.
views, Vice President Al Gore stepped in and added fuel to the
reformasi fire. Myanmar, on the other hand, has little economic
significance for the U.S., and the current regime would never let
the U.S. use its country as a rear entrance into China,
nevertheless it can serve as a buffer between nations deemed more
important to U.S. interests.
The U.S. has looked at the situation in Myanmar and has seen the
regime rapidly dismantle the NLD. With the possible deportation
of Suu Kyi not far away, the U.S. must make a move. In the past,
the U.S. offered moral condemnation of the junta with little more
than sanctions to reinforce its position. The U.S. realizes that
it cannot handle - let alone produce - any more destabilizing
factors in the region at this time, and with its confidence in
Suu Kyi waning, it has now made this overture to the SPDC. Should
Myanmar decide to deport Suu Kyi, the U.S. would quickly offer
her asylum; but for now, we believe that the U.S. will back off
of Myanmar, so long as the country remains relatively stable.
Note
Following yesterday's report, a number of our readers noted, and
rightly so, that the P-3 Orion does not have in-air refueling
capacity, but does have the range to carry out the presumed
mission. We regret the error. However, this does not alter our
depiction of the ongoing struggle between the U.S. and Bin Laden.
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