Fwd: USINDO Forum with Laksamana Su

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Subject: Fwd: USINDO Forum with Laksamana Sukardi

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>Subject: USINDO Forum with Laksamana Sukardi
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>The United States-Indonesia Society Brief: We are pleased to send you the
>following report of the most recent in our Open Forum Series, periodic
>meetings with prominent Indonesian speakers to discuss current events in
their
>country.  
>
>USINDO OPEN FORUM
>with Laksamana Sukardi, advisor to political leader Megawati Sukarnoputri
>January 11, 1999, Washington, D.C.
>
>Laksamana Sukardi, a key advisor to Megawati Sukarnoputri, a leading
contender
>as Indonesia's next president, painted a grim picture of the state of
>Indonesia's economy and society after 32 years of Soeharto rule, and asserted
>that the President Habibie government is incapable of establishing
legitimacy.
>Nevertheless, he strongly defended the decision of the major opposition
>leaders in accepting Habibie as a transitional figure in order to achieve a
>peaceful transfer of power.  His description of a potential Megawati
>government was a rousing campaign speech on her behalf, and he repeatedly
>assured his audience that this government would regard international
investors
>as its "first constituency" and would honor all contracts that were signed by
>the Soeharto regime.
>
>He said that current political trends show that sentiment in Indonesia is
>dividing along the lines of pluralists and sectarians, and that political
>groupings in the future will fall within one category or the other.  In the
>pluralist camp - those who favor an inclusive party and a multiethnic and
>secular society - are Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI),
>Abdurrahman Wahid's  Nationalist Awakening Party (PKB), some smaller parties
>and  individuals within Golkar (the major political vehicle of the Soeharto
>regime).  
>
>The sectarians, more Islam-oriented and exclusivist, are in various political
>groups but all derive their ideology and inspiration from the Association of
>Muslim Intellectuals (ICMI), the group formed in 1990 to provide a prestige
>organization for 'modernist' educated Muslims who had long felt themselves
>underrepresented in government.  He accused the Habibie government of
>promoting sectarian politics in Indonesia, for the "first time." 

>
>Where is Amien Rais and his National Mandate Party (PAN) going, he asked
>rhetorically.  There are mixtures of sectarians and pluralists within his
>party.  Which leaders will dominate?  Amien's own view is pluralist but his
>"natural habitat" is Islamic, Mr. Laksamana said.
>
>The armed forces (ABRI) is a special case, he said.  They are now caught in
>the middle and torn between the two ideologies.  ABRI was traditionally
>pluralist, but now there are shifts. He cited the recent reshuffle in ABRI
and
>the promotion of a Christian as an encouraging indication that pluralists are
>still influential, however.  He asserted that Golkar would follow ABRI,
>whatever its course.
>
>He predicted that the vote in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) for
the
>next president would be decided by whether the candidates are pluralist or
>sectarian.
>
>He stressed that the opposition leaders who met on the eve of the MPR meeting
>last November (Abdurrahman Wahid, the Sultan of Yogyakarta, Amien Rais and
>Megawati Sukarnoputri) all favor a peaceful and legal transition to a
>democratic government.  In the interests of a peaceful transition they
pledged
>support for a Habibie government as the instrument of transition.
>
>He said the first priority of a Megawati government would be to restore
>confidence in the integrity of government and its appointees.  He asserted
>that once confidence in the leaders was restored, Indonesian money would
>return.  He estimated that $20 billion of Indonesian money is now offshore,
>and that at least $3 billion would return very quickly.  He listed other
>priorities of the "first hundred days": to create an independent judiciary
>system, to install a system of scrutiny of judicial appointments by
>parliament, to empower democratic institutions, to create a "clean"
government
>by regulations such as requiring officials to declare their wealth, to
>implement an economy based on market principles rather than favoring any
>sector or group.  He said there would be encouragement of small business
>enterprises but with minimal or no distortion of the economy.  He stressed
>that the PDI is not against big business or the conglomerates.  The fifth
>priority he named was to create stability in the business environment by
>honoring all contracts of the previous government. "Whether it is mining or
>oil, every contract made by the previous government must be honored," he
said.
>
>Previous to his remarks about a Megawati administration he analyzed the New
>Order years of President Soeharto in the most categorical terms.   He said
>that an understanding of the crony capital government, as he described it,
was
>necessary in order to understand how the system worked and how much must be
>overcome to change modes of operation.  He said that the country was run by a
>"systematic commerce of power, supported by the military and the bureaucracy.
>  
>In this patronage system, power was converted into money and the government
>was the "power franchiser."  The privileges of franchise included legal
>immunity, tax exemption, access to bank loans and political power such as the
>ability to nominate their proteges for government appointments.

>
>In this system of government, Mr. Laksamana said, there was no democracy in
>any sense and no peaceful system for the transfer of power.  There was no
>independent judiciary, no empowerment of democratic institutions, no
>transparency or competition.  Stability in Indonesia was based on a
culture of
>fear and military suppression.  There was no institutionalized
decision-making
>process and the government was characterized by endemic corruption.  High
>ranking government officials were on the payroll of business tycoons.  Since
>political power and economic power were one, he said, when the economy
>collapsed the political regime collapsed as well.
>
>There was no way to participate in this economy, he said, except through this
>system.  Mr. Laksamana said that he did not blame international investors
>since they had no choice, but asserted nevertheless that investors were
>confused, and ignored or misjudged the risks in Indonesia. 
>
>The system left the country vulnerable to external shock, said Mr. Laksamana.
>It also created a vast social gap between the privileged and the outsiders
and
>deep hatred by a public that was victimized by preemptive deals such as the
>confiscating of land without adequate compensation.
>
>Questioners from the audience asked whether the sweeping reforms Mr.
Laksamana
>described could be enacted swiftly or whether the fundamental changes in the
>political and social culture described would be a "process" rather than an
>action.  He was asked also whether a credible government would necessarily
>create an economic recovery. 
>
>In answering, he offered assurance that once credibility was restored to
>government change could follow quickly.  Megawati will pick the best
brains in
>Indonesia, he asserted, from all sources: Golkar, academia, and other
parties.
>It will be a "new Indonesian government, not just a PDI government," he said.
>
>