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Notification 1/99
     THE SITUATION IN BURMA IN BRIEF: SPDC IS SOWING THE WHIRLWIND

   Below is a report from a very reliable source, a person with close 
connection to major groups, armed and political, and people at the 
grassroots in Burma:   
   "....Inside the xxxx, they (PEOPLE...??) are not static, the 
undercurrent is very strong. By now they would be doing the meetings and 
a series of activities preparing for the worst. It seems (based on 
informations from various quarters) that every sector of society is 
polarizing against the SPDC contrary to the news in the media that the 
SPDC had effectively decimated the so- termed opposition. The anger of 
the people is so great that the international media/outsider could not 
fathom"....
   Contrary to the impression given in media reports that the people are 
demoralized by the "smashing" of the NLD by the regime, and the implied 
"marginalization" of Daw Aung San Suukyi, people everywhere -- even the 
Shans -- are very angry. Hatred for the regime is as high as ever, if not 
higher. 
   Media reports are, well, media reports. The ignorance of media people, 
or the short attention span built into media structures and modus 
operandi, works to bolster what is fashionable in elite circles (and the 
diplomatic cocktail circuit). The latest fashion, vis-a-vis Burma, is to 

portray the SPDC's crackdown on the NLD as a "costless", complete 
success. 
   The reports received from the source mentioned above, and from other 
close-to-the-ground sources indicate that SPDC is sowing a whirlwind. 
There are even rumors which says that military hardliners are hatching a 
plot to get the ailing, befuddled ex-dictator Ne Win on their side in an 
attempt to depose L/Gen. Khin Nyunt. 
   Therefore, rather than the SPDC riding the high tide of success, it is 
in reality sitting atop a very volatile brew, hemmed in on one side by 
military hardliners (mentored by Sein Lwin), and on the other, by growing 
public anger and outrage. 

ANALYTICA BIRMANIE 99
January 10, 1999. 
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