Democracy still a distance dream

[CHAN@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

OFFER TO MYANMAR
Democracy still a distance dream
The Statesman (13 December 1998) 
Editorial

There is no certainty that the new carrot diplomacy now being pursued by
the UN Secretary and the World Bank with regard to Yangon junta will break
the political deadlock in Myanmar. It is doubtful whether the offer of a
billion humanitarian and infrastructure assistance will be able to lure the
junta into serious with Aung San Suu Kyi on political changes. Any
pre-conditions seeking to marginalize the dominance of the military have so
far drawn a blank. The considering the "tough" mindset that the generals
have displayed towards the leader of the democracy movement, the third
precondition for providing assistance - allowing the NLD leader freedom of
movement - may also not be acceptable. The harsh treatment meted out to her
by obstructing her travel beyond Yangon in August last had shocked the
world. The question that naturally arises is, will the world's longest
lasting military dictatorship fall for the UN offer knowing the
consequences of agreeing to the pre-conditions.

The generals know that world bodies and western democracies go in for the
carrot approach when the stick fails to yield results. They also know that
economic sanctions by the west and concerted effort to apply the pressure
to move towards a democratic system have had no effect. The ASEAN's policy
on "Constructive Engagement" has also been a conspicuous failure. The junta
is fully aware that whatever the rhetoric used for condemning it at various
fora, French, American, Singaporean, Thai and British companies continue to
be the biggest investors in Myanmar and their governments are in no
position to strictly enforce sanctions. Some Indian entities are also
nibbling at the crumbs. 

In fact these governments have allowed their companies, purely on
commercial considerations, to circumvent the ban and bag lucrative
contracts. The question arises: in such a situation can the offer of a
billion dollar "Carrot" plan succeed? The world community has consistently
shown lack of sincerity in teaching the generals a lesson. Moreover China,
which has made deed inroads into Myanmar, must have a role in ensuring that
the new effort will produce positive results. With the junta relying
heavily for weapons to keep their people in thrall, Beijing has to be made
part of any coordinated effort for achieving common objectives. A tall
order but worth the effort. Without this, any diplomatic initiative is
bound to fail.