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Report of National Planning and Eco
Subject: Report of National Planning and Economic Dev: on Inflation
Secret
MONEY SUPPLY
GDP
Ministry of National Planing and Economic Development
Report pertaining to inflation and how to reduce it
BUDGET
CPI INFLATION
Consumer Price Index
1998, September
Secret
TABLE (1)
Rate of inflation in Burma, ASEAN and neighbouring countries
(1997)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------
Serial No: Country
Percentage
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------
1. Indonesia
9 .7
2. Malaysia
2 .7
3. Philippines
6 .8
4. Thailand
4 .6
5. Burma
29.7
6. Singapore
2.8
7. Laos
- -
8. Nepal
3.6
9. Sri Lanka
7.9
10. China
2.8
11. Bangladesh
5.7
12. India
6.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------
TABLE (1.a)
TABLE (1.a)
(Percentage)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------
No; /Country / 1986/ 1987/ 1988/ 1989/ 1990/ 1991/ 1992/ 1993/ 1994/
1995/ 1996/ 1997/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------
A
1. Indonesia 5.8 9.3 8.0 6.4 7.8 9.4 7.5 9.7
8.5 9.4 7.9 9.7
8.5 9.4 7.9 9.7
B
2. Malaysia 0.7 0.3 2.6 2.8 2.6 4.4 4.8 3.5
3.7 5.3 3.5 2.7
A
3. Philippines 0.8 3.8 8.8 12.2 14.1 18.7 8.9 7.6 9.1
8.1 8.4 6.8
B
4. Thailand 1.8 2.5 3.8 5.4 6.0 5.7 4.1 3.4
5.2 5.7 5.8 4.6
D
5. Burma 9.2 23.9 16.8 27.2 17.7 32.3 20.9 31.8
24.1 25.2 16.3 29.7
E
6. Singapore 1.4 8.5 8.5 2.3 3.5 3.4 2.3 2.3
3.1 1.7 1.4 2.8
7. Laos * * * 61.3 35.6 13.4 9.9
6.3 6.7 19.6 14.7 ---*
C
8. Nepal 19.0 10.8 9.0 8.8 8.2 15.6 17.1 7.5
8.3 7.6 9.2 3.6
8.3 7.6 9.2 3.6
G
9. Sri Lanka 8.0 7.7 14.0 11.6 21.5 12.2 11.4 11.7 8.4
7.7 15.9 7.9
F
10. China 0.0 7.2 18.7 18.3 3.1 3.5 6.3 14.6
24.2 16.9 8.3 2.8
G
11. Bangladesh 11.0 9.5 9.3 10.0 8.1 7.2 4.3 0.0
3.6 5.8 2.7 5.7
G
12. India 8.7 8.8 9.4 6.2 9.0 13.9 11.8
6.4 10.2 10.2 9.0 6.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------
A- October E- September
B - August F- Third Quarter
C- July G- Jun
D- December H- May
* -not received
Note: 1. International Financial Statistics Yearbook 1997
2. International Financial Statistics, December 1997
3. Central Statistical Organisation
TABLE (2)
Consumer Price Index (Rangoon)
Consumer Price Index (Rangoon)
(1986=100)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Serial / Subject / 1989 / 1990 / 1991 /
1992 / 1993 / 1994 / 1995 / 1996 / 1997 / 1998 /
1998
No: / Mar / Mar / Mar
/ Mar / Mar / Mar / Mar / Mar / Mar / Mar
/ Sep
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Consumer Price Index 167.5.2 197.58 267.24 328.15 434.64
533.31 673.87 758.39 960.40 1393.31 1786.00
2. Food Group 174.46 209.29 299.03 371.76
512.38 620.20 768.83 887.11 1148.61 1656.83 2133.69
1. Rice 122.25 236.53 327.22
387.68 855.15 916.28 1023.92 1204.32 1607.97 1870.43 2560.13
2. Oil 129.71 177.06 162.07
375.74 338.82 344.04 539.59 523.95 698.56 1268.43
1491.29
3. Meat Fish and Eggs 152.66 183.14 261.66 325.31
500.09 680.34 815.54 916.22 1186.61 1902.38 2280.41
4. Other Foodstuff 167.66 201.13 287.38 357.27
442.28 532.46 695.45 863.62 1086.60 1442.09 2041.69
3. Other than 154.66 175.90 208.39
247.41 290.70 372.43 498.05 520.07 611.95 905.43
1042.27
food group
1. Clothing 118.58 163.71 202.93
257.78 340.97 357.72 423.26 500.25 567.12 918.32 1144.45
2. House rent and repairs 104.08 124.17 169.24 206.00
221.84 271.46 359.60 398.07 463.13 677.63 772.53
3. Firewood and fuel 171.00 194.23 250.63 308.26
373.04 511.62 761.08 767.06 901.40 1162.49 1305.55
4. Miscellaneous 173.45 185.45 197.30 217.52
232.20 331.55 430.78 436.44 508.46 794.42 1129.00
1. Education 96.07 102.62 103.64
105.23 106.54 111.97 115.97 133.60 171.50 289.58
329.07
2. Health 182.60 221.65 296.70
304.60 317.98 319.27 425.18 379.74 558.22 702.31 726.55
3. Travelling expenses 223.73 223.73 223.73 223.73
223.73 509.05 708.75 708.75 725.25 1133.67 1551.18
4. Commodities 174.33 193.58 195.86 262.36
291.38 271.87 305.29 331.10 474.64 824.79 1547.06
5. Other 159.19 161.48 188.99
237.25 305.10 314.24 369.88 371.36 506.73 889.28
1040.25
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
TABLE (3)
Cost of living for a family in Rangoon
(1989 & 1997)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Serial / Subject / 1989 Census
/ 1997 Census / 1997 - Increase
(multiple) in
No: /
cost of living
(1989= 1)
/ Kyat /
Percentage / Kyat / Percentage /
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Family size (number of persons) 5.18
5.16
2. Monthly expenditure (Kyat) 2026.37 100.00
16234.81 100.00 8
3. Food group 1375.95 67.90
10417.19 64.17 8
1. Rice 255.21
12.59 2249.27 13.85
9
2. Edible oil 137.08 6.76
1124.80 6.93 8
3. Meat, Fish and Eggs 386.51 19.07
2875.29 17.71 7
4. Other foodstuff 597.15 29.48
4167.83 25.68 7
4. Group of other 650.42 32.10
5817.62 35.83 9
than food
1. Clothing 109.50 5.4
935.92 5.77 9
2. House rent and repairs 42.04 2.07
422.65 2.60 10
3. Firewood and fuel 123.56 6.10
752.82 4.64 6
4. Miscellaneous group
1. Education 35.25 1.74
360.85 2.23 10
2. Health 52.36
2.58 275.75 1.70
5
3. Travelling expenses 100.63 4.98
1373.47 8.46 14
4. Commodities 78.64 3.88
432.64 2.66 6
5. Other 108.44
5.35 1263.52 7.77
12
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
TABLE (4)
Cost of living for a family (Union of Burma )
(1989 & 1997)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Serial / Subject / 1989 Census
/ 1997 Census / 1997 - Increase (multiple)
in
No: /
cost of living
/-----------------/-------------------/----------------------------------/
(1989 = 1)
/ Kyat /
Percentage / Kyat / Percentage /
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Family size (number of persons) 5.27
5.25
2. Monthly expenditure (Kyat) 1795.50 100.00
13784.51 100.00 8
3. Food group 1329.19 74.03
9779.45 70.95 7
1. Rice 548.49
30.10 2695.68 19.56 5
2. Edible oil 118.49
6.60 1248.43 9.06 11
3. Meat, Fish and Eggs 268.86 14.97
2256.17 16.36 8
4. Other foodstuff 401.35
22.36 3579.17 25.97 9
4. Group of 466.31 25.97
4005.06 29.05 9
other than food
1. Clothing 87.34
4.87 738.72 5.36 8
2. House rent and repairs 25.08 1.40
294.82 2.14 12
3. Firewood and fuel 120.67 6.72
661.76 4.80 5
4. Miscellaneous group
1. Education 16.69
0.93 197.10 1.43 12
2. Health 37.71
2.10 249.13 1.81 7
3. Travelling expenses 31.14 1.73
421.53 3.06 14
4. Commodities 47.87
2.67 329.20 2.39
7
5. Other 99.91
5.55 1112.79 8.06 11
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
TABLE (5)
Summary of the country's Income and Expenditure Account
In millions of Kyat
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
No: / Subject / 1988-89 / 1989-90 / 1990-91 / 1991-92 /
1992-93 / 1993-94 / 1994-95 / 1995-96 / 1996-97 / 1997-98
(Adjusted
Estimate)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1. State administrative
Body
Income 6860.2 11249.8 14837.0 16178.3
2472.0 28145.0 32766.4 40370.9 55253.6 72473.8
Expenditure 8226.8 15787.8 21708.2 25340.4
28494.9 35888.6 48493.2 65527.5 80439.6 93299.8
Balance -1366.6 -4538.8 -6871.2
-9162.1 -7022.9 -7743.6 -15726.8 -25156.6 - 25186.0 -
20826.0
2. State owned
Enterprises
Income 19100.1 26812.8 32041.7 36399.1
43548.0 52944.5 73444.1 88182.9 109023.5 21456.7
Expenditure 23998.3 29977.5 36361.4 40110.8
48624.0 60723.8 87373.3 101853.6 135578.9 258997.9
Balance -4898.2 -3164.7 -4319.7
-3711.8 -5076.0 -7779.3 -13929.2 -13670.7 -26555.4
-44471.2
3. Municipal bodies
Income 407.5 1008.6 1881.4
2410.1 13.0 15.2 18.8 22.7
18.3 21.8
Expenditure 457.4 1325.6 1894.5 1847.6
9.0 9.7 10.0 14.9 16.3
33.2
Balance -49.9 - 307.0 -13.1
+562.5 +4.0 +5.5 +8.8 +7.8
+2.0 -11.4
4. Total
Income 26367.8 39071.2 48760.1 54987.4
65033.0 81104.7 106229.3 128576.5 164295.4 287022.3
Expenditure 32682.5 47090.9 59964.1 67298.8
77127.9 96622.1 135876.5 167396.0 216034.8 352330.9
Balance -6314.7 -8019.7 -11204.0 -12311.4
-12094.9 -15517.4 -29647.2 -38809.5 -51739.4 -65308.6
5. GDP (at
Current prices)- 76242.7 124666.3 1519414.4 186802.4
249394.7 360320.7 472773.7 604729.1 790877.3 1067521.9
6. Deficit/GDP
Ratio(%) 8.3 6.4 7.4 6.6
4.8 4.3 6.3 6.4 6.5
6.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
TABLE (6)
Index of GDP annual growth
(Percentage)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Serial / Subject / 1988-89/ 1989-90/ 1990-91/
1991-92/ 1992-93/ 1993-94/ 1994-95/ 1995-96/ 1996-97/ 1997-98
No: / Provisional
1.Value of Production -13.3 6.5 2.6
-1. 5 11.0 6.0 6.9 6.7
6.4 5.3
1. Agriculture -13.2 5.2 2.0
-3. 9 12.4 4.7 6.7 5.5
3.8 3.0
2. Meat and fish -10.5 -4.0 -0.6
5.7 4.5 4.8 6.0 3.0
11.9 8.7
3. Forest -1.6 28.4
8.3 -1.7 -3.3 1.0 -14.3 -
4.5 2.7 2.3
4. Energy - -
- -2.4 -5.7 2.4 -6.5
8.9 -2.1 2.3
5. Metal/mineral -20.1 30.6 -1.2
18.5 32.0 13.8 21.3 18.5 11.6
31.3
6. Industry -15.9 11.3 0.1
-4.0 10.8 9.4 8.5 7.6
5.0 5.9
7. Electricity - 5.9 14.1 5.0
6 .7 31.1 24.4 4.8 6.6 10.0
9.5
8. Construction -23.4 32.7 35.8
17.1 11.2 11.7 15 .7 27.2 24.6
9.5
2. Services -3.3 -7.5 4.2
5.1 6.1 8.0 10.0 9.3
8.2 7.6
1. Transport -17.5 9.7 3.5
5.8 9.1 9.2 11.2 6.4
6.0 5.8
2. Communication 6.2 11.6 3.9
16.5 26.0 8.5 20.4 24.6 20.4
16.6
3. Financial matters 7.1 -85.7 16.7
17.9 15.1 38.4 47.3 34.8 21.9
14.2
4. Social & management 1.5 17.9 4.2
4.3 2.9 7.2 6.8 6.2
5.6 6.2
5. Rental / other services -4.2 1.5 3.5
2.5 3.6 3.5 4.0 6.3
5.9 6.0
3. Trade -12.0 5.3 2.4
-2.5 8.9 4.6 7.0 5.7
5.0 5.0
4.GDP -11.4 3.7 2.8
-0.6 9.7 6.0 7.5 6.9
6.4 5.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
TABLE (7)
Ratio of extent of change in money supply and GDP
(millions of Kyat)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Serial / Subject /1988-89 / 1989-90 / 1990-91 / 1991-92 /
1992-93 / 1993-94 / 1994-95 / 1995-96 / 1996-97 / 1997-98
No:
(Adjusted
(Adjusted
Estimate)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Annual budget -6314.7 -8019.7 -11204.0 -12311.4
-12094.9 -15517.4 -29647.2 -38819.5 -57139.4 -65308. 6
deficit
2. Extent of
yearly money
supply increase
M1 7050.0 7203.0 13618.0 13389.0 18121.0
13953.0 34680.0 33544.0 47240. *
M2 6314.0 9264.0 15985.0 15785.0 22751.0
20405.0 64130.0 55463.0 76522 *
Ð
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