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Asiaweek: A CHANCE FOR DIALOGUE; B



           A CHANCE FOR DIALOGUE

         But behind the scenes, the sparring continues

                               By Roger Mitton


MYANMAR HAS SEEN A flurry of activities the past week. The dialogue between
the
military government and the opposition National League for Democracy, begun
on Aug. 18,
continued with a second session a week later. At the same time, NLD leader
and Nobel Peace
laureate Aung San Suu Kyi abruptly ended a 13-day car sit-in outside Yangon
to direct party
matters back home. And for the first time since December 1996, up to 100
young people
demonstrated in the capital against the junta. The protest lasted about an
hour before it was broken
up by baton-wielding riot police. But it is understood that no arrests were
made and the city stayed
calm. 

Observers, however, fear that a repetition of such protests may cause the
junta to abandon its
recent conciliatory posture - including a promised re-opening of
universities - and launch a
crackdown similar to the one in 1988 that killed hundreds. Says a foreign
professional in Yangon:
"I'm afraid that those in the government who pushed to open up the economy,
join ASEAN and
take a softer line with the NLD may be shunted aside."

The conciliatory course - urged on the generals by their ASEAN colleagues
and key investors like
Japan and South Korea - began in May when the government allowed the NLD to
celebrate its
1990 election victory. The party decided to adopt a firmer attitude toward
the junta. Soon, Suu Kyi
flouted official advisories and made journeys outside Yangon in a bid to
meet provincial party
officials. She was stopped each time, but not prevented from setting out
again. Her third such outing
led to an internationally publicized, six-day stand-off. The government
forcibly returned her to the
capital.

Even so, the generals made more subtle concessions. At Suu Kyi's request,
they withdrew a
security unit stationed in her compound. The next day, they invited NLD
chairman Aung Shwe for
talks. The invitation was spurned because it did not include Suu Kyi - a
decision many outsiders felt
was a tactical error by the NLD, which portrays itself as the party of
dialogue. Others, however,
thought the rejection justified. Says U.S.-based academic Mya Maung: "If
Aung Shwe were to
accept, the leadership would be split and Suu Kyi undermined." Ties between
the two have long
been strained. 

Despite the rejection, the junta again softened its position. On Aug. 8,
government newsletters
began referring to the NLD leader as "Ms. Suu Kyi" rather than "Mrs. Aris"
(after her British
husband Michael Aris). "That's quite a move forward," says an ambassador.
"For years, the
generals have not been able to speak her name." Next day, when 18
foreigners were arrested in
Yangon for distributing pro-democracy cards with the NLD logo, they were
quickly tried for inciting
unrest, sentenced to five years - then freed and allowed to leave the
country. 

With Suu Kyi stranded 32 km away in her fourth car sit-in, junta pragmatist
Lt.-Gen. Khin Nyunt
on Aug. 18 reinvited Aung Shwe for talks. This time, the party chairman
accepted and met for 45
minutes with Khin Nyunt and other senior officials. Khin Nyunt called the
talks "fruitful." The news
was prominently displayed in the government media. 

Did Suu Kyi authorize Aung Shwe to meet Khin Nyunt? Says a Yangon diplomat:
"She did not
object, but we do not know if she gave her approval." Adds Mya Maung: "I
was told Aung Shwe
acted with the full knowledge and approval of Suu Kyi." Other Yangon
sources say she was only
informed of the meeting later, and belatedly gave her approval.

The government said it welcomed further meetings. A second took place on
Aug. 24 between two
senior NLD officials and Home Affairs Minister Col. Tin Hlaing. Later that
day, Suu Kyi gave up
her car ordeal and returned home, citing ill health. She had refused all
food and facilities brought to
her by the government, clearly hoping to generate sympathy - and worldwide
attention. She did, but
the impact was less that of her previous car sit-in.

Then came the Aug. 24 protest, which caught most people by surprise. But
onlookers showed no
inclination to join in. This mirrored the reaction to the cards handed out
by the 18 foreigners, which
were rejected by ordinary citizens. Indeed, restaurants emptied when the
foreigners entered.

NLD officials believe their tougher stance has brought the government to
the negotiating table. That
may embolden the party to continue insisting on Suu Kyi's presence at
future talks. The reason, says
director Robert Cribb of the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies in Denmark,
"is to keep her central to
the issue [because] she has the electoral mandate. The standing which [the
NLD] derived from
winning the election is fading by the year." So the stand-off seems set to
continue, with intermittent
periods of rapprochement.