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ANALYSIS-Suu Kyi's democracy deadli



Reuters News
ANALYSIS-Suu Kyi's democracy deadline looms 
05:37 a.m. Aug 19, 1998 Eastern 

By David Brunnstrom 

BANGKOK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - An opposition deadline for Myanmar to transform
its military government into a new Asian democracy looms on Friday, but no
miracles are expected. 

Myanmar's National League for Democracy (NLD) has given the deadline for the
country's ruling generals to call parliament in recognition of the results of
a general election eight years ago it won by a landslide. 

But with the NLD's charismatic leader Aung San Suu Kyi still stuck on a rural
roadside after an eight-day protest for basic political freedoms and her party
under a daily barrag of criticism from the state-run media, analysts do not
expect sudden miracles. 

Nor do they expect any dramatic reaction in the form of mass street
demonstrations if the deadline is ignored. 

``I should be very, very surprised if they call parliament on Friday,'' said a
diplomat in Myanmar's capital Yangon. ``At the same time I don't think mass
demonstrations are part of NLD's current agenda.'' 

The military, the source of political power in Myanmar, or Burma, since 1962,
iextremely intolerant of street protests. 

In 1988 it stepped in to take direct control when the country was engulfed by
a nationwide uprising for democracy, killing thousands of demonstrators in the
process, opposition groups say. 

But diplomats, exiles and non-governmental organisations believe the NLD will
find various ways to keep up the pressure on the military even after the
deadline passes. 

``This is all part of a rolling programme of pressure,'' the diplomat said.
``I'm not sure it's really the sort of ultimatum day some people abroad say it
is. The date in itself is not the real point, it's more about keeping up the
pressure.'' 

Analysts says Suu Kyi has been brilliantly successful in highlighting the lack
of basic freedoms through her roadside standoffs with the authorities in the
past two months. 

In a previous incident at the end of July she garnered worldwide attention and
the government suffered the indignity of being hauled over the coals at a
meeting of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Suu Kyi
endured a six-day showdown before being forcibly returned to the capital. 

The government's embarrassment deepened earlier this month when foreign
activists handed out leaflets at tourist sites across Yangon calling on people
to remember the 1988 uprising. 

Eighteen, including six Americans and 11 from Myanmar's ASEAN allies
Thailand,Malaysia the Philippines and Indonesia, were sentenced to five years
with hard labour and then deported. 

Diplomats say such incidents have not only embarrassed the generals but have
had a negative effect on the tourism industry, which the government has tried,
largel unsuccessfully, to build into a significant foreign exchange earner. 

While the military boasted over the years that it never has and never will
give in to outside pressure, in recent days Yangon-based diplomats say there
have been some signs that might possibly indicate a willingness for eventual
compromise. 

On Tuesday, NLD chairman Aung Shwe and the powerful head of military
intelligence and senior government member Khin Nyunt held the first meeting
between the government and opposition in more than a year. 

While no details have emerged, Khin Nyunt afterwards called the meeting
``fruitful'' and said he hoped it would be the first in a series of
confidence-building talks with the NLD. 

However, the opposition stood by a demand that it would not enter a formal
dialogue with the military unless such talks include Suu Kyi, something the
military has always resisted. 

On Wednesday, a commentary carried in all three government newspapers appeared
to hold out an olive branch, hinting Suu Kyi might be able to participate in
the ``national task.''

``I hope that if she has a clear and objective view on holding a dialogue with
the government, the people's desires and the government's nation-building
endeavours, the entire public and the...government will wholeheartedly welcome
her approach to participate in the national task,'' it said. 

Diplomats said it was too early to say if this was a peace offering or merely
a new tack to convince Suu Kyi to back down. 

In recent days state newspapers and the government have appeared to blow hot
and cold towards the opposition. 

The same commentary accused Suu Kyi of ``trying to corner the nation'' and
embarrass it overseas. On Monday, government-run newspapers described the NLD
as the ``Number One Enemy.'' 

In addition, the government has ridiculed Suu Kyi's latest protest by sending
gifts, including a beach umbrella and a mobile bathroom, to suggest she is on
a camping holiday. 


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