Reuters-ANALYSIS-SE Asia may see su

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ANALYSIS-SE Asia may see subtle change on Myanmar 
02:30 a.m. Aug 16, 1998 Eastern 

By Chris Johnson 

BANGKOK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Recent political tension in Myanamar is
unlikely to do much to change the uncritical attitude of most Southeast
Asian states to Yangon's military government. 

U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright warned recently of an increasing
risk of social ``explosion'' in Myanmar, but most of its neighbours prefer
instead to avert their gaze, overlook claims of widespread human rights
abuse, and focus on investments there. 

Yet if Myanmar's economy continues to deteriorate with the Asian economic
crisis, and if the conflict between the ruling generals and opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi intensifies, the region may gradually harden its
stance, analysts say. 

Asian countries are among the biggest foreign investors in Myanmar and this
gives them both political leverage and a strong reason to promote stability
in the country. 

Since opening the economy to foreign investment in 1988, the Myanmar
government has approved over 300 projects worth about $7 billion in foreign
investment, according to data from Myanmar's Ministry of National Planning
and Economic Development. 

Singapore is the largest foreign investor in Myanmar, with a proposed
investment of $1.4 billion for 65 projects, one of which is an arms
factory, according to Jane's Defence Weekly. 

Thailand and Malaysia are the third and fourth biggest investors after
Britain, Myanmar government figures show. 

``Their investments there have given them a stake in Myanmar and therefore
they could put pressure on the government to mend its ways,'' said Ishtiaq
Hossain, senior lecturer in political science at the National University of
Singapore. 

Human rights group Amnesty said recently the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations' policy of constructive engagement with Myanmar had failed to
improve the human rights situation in the country. 

But diplomats say there has been a slight and discernible shift in the
attitude of one or two Asian nations recently as political pressure has
built up inside Myanmar in recent weeks. 

Part of the change may be put down to a brilliant publicity campaign run by
Suu Kyi, as the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize winner uses every means at her
disposal to embarrass the government. 

Released from six years of house arrest in July 1995, Suu Kyi has slipped
away from her military minders in Yangon on several occasions and headed
off to see supporters outside the capital, only to be stopped by the
military at check-points. 

The most recent venture began on Wednesday when she headed for Pathein, 120
miles (190 km) west of Yangon in a minibus only to be stopped on a small
country bridge. 

She has been there since, drawing attention to her lack of freedom and to
calls for the military to convene by August 21 a parliament of members
elected at polls in 1990. 

Her National League for Democracy (NLD) swept that poll by a wide margin
but the result was ignored by the military. 

Pressure on the government was also stepped up last week by 18
pro-democracy activists who entered Myanmar as tourists and then gave out
leaflets in Yangon calling on people to remember a massacre of opposition
supporters 10 years ago. 

Their detention, conviction, and eventual deportation on Saturday sparked a
chorus of condemnation from around the world and calls for change and
substantive dialogue in Myanmar. 

One of the most significant came from Japan, which called Myanmar's
treatment of Suu Kyi ``very deplorable'' and joined seven other nations
calling for dialogue with Suu Kyi. 

``The Japanese position does appear to have hardened,'' said one ASEAN
diplomat, who declined to be identified. ``It has moved closer to that of
the United States and this could have an impact on the attitude of ASEAN.''


Thailand has been outspoken as well. At an Association of South East Asian
Nations (ASEAN) meeting two weeks ago, Thai Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan
proposed the grouping change its policy on Myanmar to ``flexible
engagement'' from ``constructive engagement.'' 

Although he was backed by the Philippines, the change was strongly opposed
by Singapore and Malaysia who cited ASEAN's traditional policy of
non-interference in others' affairs. 

But an alliance of Washington and Tokyo could just tip the policy against
Yangon if the economic argument is right. 

Myanmar's economy is suffering from years of near isolation and its kyat
currency hit a record low of 384 to the dollar on Thursday from 300 early
this year and an official rate of six. 

``Relations between the government and the opposition have a powerful
impact on the market as it can cause immediate panic among dealers and
traders,'' one currency dealer in Yangon said. 

Economic growth is also at risk as recession bites into its neighbours. A
recent Asian Development Bank report said growth prospects depended on
further economic liberalisation. This is only likely to come with political
change, analyst say. 

``If the economic situation gets much worse, and we know it is in trouble,
then I think there will be pressure for change,'' said Hossain. ``But
otherwise I don't see why the Myanmar leaders should listen to their ASEAN
counterparts.'' 

ASEAN groups Brunei, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.