THE NATION: EDITORIAL: Fear still s

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Editorial & Opinion 

      EDITORIAL: Fear still
      stalks Burma 10 years on 

      FOR many Burmese, the eighth day of the
      eight month of the year 1988 remains
      gravelly portentous. On that day, thousands
      of protesters, emboldened by the
      resignation of strongman Ne Win, poured
      into the streets to demand democracy. 

      The military responded with such brutality
      that when the bloodletting ended seven
      days later, thousands were dead. 

      August 8, 1988, in fact, marked the
      beginning of a new reign of terror. It
      sparked an exodus of fearful Burmese
      students and pro-democracy activists to the
      border, many of whom later fled into exile.
      But from the midst of Burma's latest
      dictatorship, there emerged a new hope in
      the form of Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of
      independence hero Gen Aung San. Over
      the past decade, this flower of democracy
      has consistently proved to be a thorn in the
      side of the military clique. 

      On Saturday, the 10th anniversary of the
      8-8-88 uprising, the military remains
      unmoved, but it is facing mounting pressure
      to bow to the wishes of the people. Clearly,
      there is much for the junta to worry about. 

      While major unrest is not expected in the
      streets of Rangoon on Saturday, the junta is
      nevertheless bracing for sporadic protests.
      Students -- the foot soldiers of the
      democracy struggle -- are currently sitting
      exams despite that universities have been
      closed since December 1996. The exams
      will be over by next week, and if there is to
      be any confrontation, it will be after Aug 21
      -- the deadline which Suu Kyi and the
      National League for Democracy (NLD)
      have set for the ruling State Peace and
      Development Council (SPDC) to convene
      parliament. 

      Suu Kyi has called on the government to
      allow the 1990 elected parliament to
      convene by that day or she ''couldn't be held
      responsible for the consequences''. She
      did not specify what actions would be taken
      should the junta refuse to budge, but
      patience is running thin and tension is high.
      Burma, to put it bluntly, is at boiling point. 

      Last week, the military forcibly ended Suu
      Kyi's defiant headline-grabbing protest
      which began when she was stopped at a
      wooden bridge near a village outside
      Rangoon and prevented from driving to
      Bassein to meet supporters. For six days
      she refused to budge from her car until the
      military ended the deadlock by ejecting her
      driver and two fellow passengers, and
      drove her back home. 

      But this is not the only problem confronting
      the military junta. The man who sparked the
      8.8.88 uprising is reported to be on his
      deathbed. Rangoon-based diplomatic
      sources say Ne Win, the country's ruthless
      dictator since 1962, has been in Rangoon's
      Military Hospital No. 2 since mid-June,
      apparently too sick to be flown to
      Singapore where he normally goes for
      medical treatment. 

      The influential former leader, now believed
      to be 87, is rumoured to have suffered a
      debilitating stroke. The possible demise of
      Ne Win is likely to ignite a new round of
      political sabre-rattling in the divided military
      leadership. Should Ne Win die, his protege,
      intelligence chief and senior junta member
      Lt Gen Khin Nyunt, could face an uncertain
      future. 

      Already, as Ne Win counts his last days,
      Khin Nyunt's authority is being challenged
      by his political rivals. Last November, Khin
      Nyunt ordered the incarceration of a
      number of ministers for corruption following
      a reshuffle in the ruling council. But within
      days of Ne Win's hospitalisation, the
      government, apparently on the orders of
      Vice Chairman Gen Maung Aye, released
      the jailed former cabinet members. 

      To add to the junta's woes, the economy is
      in a tailspin and the Burmese kyat has
      plunged into a currency black hole. With the
      Asian economic crisis still taking its toll in
      the region, few investors are interested in
      Burma. Occupancy rates at the capital's
      four and five-star hotels have slid to a
      worrying 10 per cent because of a dearth of
      tourists. The government, in fact, is so
      desperate for hard currency that it went cap
      in hand to the Singaporean government to
      help inject capital into the cash-strapped
      economy. Other than Singapore, there is
      nobody else the military can turn to for aid. 

      Clearly, the junta is caught between Suu Kyi
      and the deep blue sea. Suu Kyi, whether
      the generals like it or not, is here to stay.
      The junta does have a choice, however. It
      can negotiate with Suu Kyi and the NLD for
      a peaceful transition to democracy. Or, it
      can turn the clock back 10 years and
      ''annihilate'' the lady and the pro-democracy
      movement. 

      The latter scenario is hardly likely, however.
      Because of Burma's isolation at the time,
      few outside the country knew of the
      massacre that began on that fateful day of
      Aug 8, 1988. This time the whole world is
      watching. 

      The Nation