The Nation : EDITORIAL: Fear still

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The Nation
Editorial & Opinion 
EDITORIAL: Fear still stalks Burma 10 years on 

FOR many Burmese, the eighth day of the eight month of the year 1988
remains gravelly portentous. On that day, thousands of protesters,
emboldened by the resignation of strongman Ne Win, poured into the streets
to demand democracy. 

The military responded with such brutality that when the bloodletting ended
seven days later, thousands were dead. 

August 8, 1988, in fact, marked the beginning of a new reign of terror. It
sparked an exodus of fearful Burmese students and pro-democracy activists
to the border, many of whom later fled into exile. But from the midst of
Burma's latest dictatorship, there emerged a new hope in the form of Aung
San Suu Kyi, daughter of independence hero Gen Aung San. Over the past
decade, this flower of democracy has consistently proved to be a thorn in
the side of the military clique. 

On Saturday, the 10th anniversary of the 8-8-88 uprising, the military
remains unmoved, but it is facing mounting pressure to bow to the wishes of
the people. Clearly, there is much for the junta to worry about. 

While major unrest is not expected in the streets of Rangoon on Saturday,
the junta is nevertheless bracing for sporadic protests. Students -- the
foot soldiers of the democracy struggle -- are currently sitting exams
despite that universities have been closed since December 1996. The exams
will be over by next week, and if there is to be any confrontation, it will
be after Aug 21 -- the deadline which Suu Kyi and the National League for
Democracy (NLD) have set for the ruling State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC) to convene parliament. 

Suu Kyi has called on the government to allow the 1990 elected parliament
to convene by that day or she ''couldn't be held responsible for the
consequences''. She did not specify what actions would be taken should the
junta refuse to budge, but patience is running thin and tension is high.
Burma, to put it bluntly, is at boiling point. 

Last week, the military forcibly ended Suu Kyi's defiant headline-grabbing
protest which began when she was stopped at a wooden bridge near a village
outside Rangoon and prevented from driving to Bassein to meet supporters.
For six days she refused to budge from her car until the military ended the
deadlock by ejecting her driver and two fellow passengers, and drove her
back home. 

But this is not the only problem confronting the military junta. The man
who sparked the 8.8.88 uprising is reported to be on his deathbed.
Rangoon-based diplomatic sources say Ne Win, the country's ruthless
dictator since 1962, has been in Rangoon's Military Hospital No. 2 since
mid-June, apparently too sick to be flown to Singapore where he normally
goes for medical treatment. 

The influential former leader, now believed to be 87, is rumoured to have
suffered a debilitating stroke. The possible demise of Ne Win is likely to
ignite a new round of political sabre-rattling in the divided military
leadership. Should Ne Win die, his protege, intelligence chief and senior
junta member Lt Gen Khin Nyunt, could face an uncertain future. 

Already, as Ne Win counts his last days, Khin Nyunt's authority is being
challenged by his political rivals. Last November, Khin Nyunt ordered the
incarceration of a number of ministers for corruption following a reshuffle
in the ruling council. But within days of Ne Win's hospitalisation, the
government, apparently on the orders of Vice Chairman Gen Maung Aye,
released the jailed former cabinet members. 

To add to the junta's woes, the economy is in a tailspin and the Burmese
kyat has plunged into a currency black hole. With the Asian economic crisis
still taking its toll in the region, few investors are interested in Burma.
Occupancy rates at the capital's four and five-star hotels have slid to a
worrying 10 per cent because of a dearth of tourists. The government, in
fact, is so desperate for hard currency that it went cap in hand to the
Singaporean government to help inject capital into the cash-strapped
economy. Other than Singapore, there is nobody else the military can turn
to for aid. 

Clearly, the junta is caught between Suu Kyi and the deep blue sea. Suu
Kyi, whether the generals like it or not, is here to stay. The junta does
have a choice, however. It can negotiate with Suu Kyi and the NLD for a
peaceful transition to democracy. Or, it can turn the clock back 10 years
and ''annihilate'' the lady and the pro-democracy movement. 

The latter scenario is hardly likely, however. Because of Burma's isolation
at the time, few outside the country knew of the massacre that began on
that fateful day of Aug 8, 1988. This time the whole world is watching. 



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