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> ------------------------ BurmaNet ------------------------
>  "Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies"
> ----------------------------------------------------------
>
> The BurmaNet News: June 30, 1998
> Issue #1037
>
> HEADLINES:
> ==========
> REUTERS: MYANMAR JUNTA THREATENS SUU KYI WITH LEGAL ACTION
> NLD: STATEMENT ON SPDC ATTACK ON STUDY GROUP
> THE NATION: POOR ASEAN NATIONS REEL UNDER CRISIS
> THE NATION: GOOD IDEAS NEED DISCREET LOBBYING
> BURMANET SUBJECT-MATTER RESOURCE LIST
> BURMANET SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION
> ****************************************************************
>
> Reuters: Myanmar Junta Threatens Suu Kyi with Legal Action
> 29 June, 1998
>
> YANGON, June 29 (Reuters) - Myanmar's military junta threatened on Monday
> to take legal action against opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her
> political party, saying she was on a collision course with the government.
>
> The warnings were carried in commentaries run by three state-owned
> newspapers which said: ``The Myanmar government and its people can no
> longer tolerate the acts of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi who ignores the interest
> of the nation and people.''
> Similar warnings appeared in the media in the days prior to Suu Kyi's house
> arrest in 1989 for nearly six years by the then ruling military government.
> The Nobel Peace prize winner was released from detention in mid-1995.
>
> The country's media are considered mouthpieces of the ruling State Peace
> and Development Council (SPDC).
>
> The latest threat follows demands by Suu Kyi and her National League for
> Democracy (NLD) party that the junta convene parliament by August 2 in
> accordance with the results of the 1990 election. The NLD swept the
> election, but its victory was never recognised by the military.
>
> The newspaper commentaries cited Law Number 5/96, which they said
> prohibited individuals or organisations from ``disturbing, destroying,
> obstructing, inciting, delivering speeches, making oral or written
> statements and disseminating in order to undermine, belittle and make
> people misunderstand the functions being carried out by the National
> Convention for the emergence of a firm and enduring Constitution.''
> They said those convicted for the offence faced a minimum of five years to
> a maximum of 20 years in jail.
>
> During the eighth anniversary celebration of the NLD's 1990 election
> victory late last month, Suu Kyi demanded that the SPDC convene parliament
> to facilitate a session of elected members of parliament.
>
> The SPDC bluntly rejected her call and said parliament could not be
> convened without the completion of a new national constitution being
> drafted by a government-appointed National Convention.
>
> The Convention was set up in early 1993. It has not met since 1996,
> although the junta says two thirds of the new charter is complete.
>
> The NLD walked out of the Convention some months after Suu Kyi's release
> from detention, calling it a sham.
>
> Suu Kyi has repeatedly sought talks with the military but the junta flatly
> refuses to deal with her.
>
> She has accused the military of abusing human rights and curbing her
> party's political activities.
>
> The newspapers said Suu Kyi was being used by the West to undermine the
> junta and the national interests of Myanmar.
>
> ``Daw Suu Kyi ignored the interests of the nation and the people. Instead,
> she got so conceited that she acted like a dictator within the party and
> made trouble with her reliance on West at the expense of improving
> stability, peace and development in the country,'' said the commentary.
>
> ``Aung San Suu Kyi should take a good lesson from the case of former
> President Ngo Dinh Diem of South Vietnam, who was used by the Western bloc,
> but he did not win public support'' it added.
>
> Ngo Dinh Diem was executed after a bloody coup in Vietnam in 1963.
>
> ****************************************************************
>
> NLD: Statement on SPDC Attack on Study Group
> 26 June, 1998
>
> [Unofficial translation]
>
> National League for Democracy
> No. 97/b, West Shwe Gontaing Rd,
> Bhan Township, Rangoon
>
> Announcement 4 (6/98)
>
> (1) The NLD is a legal, registered political party. Therefore, NLD
> activities related to national politics are legal actions. Conducting a
> study session is also legal activity.
>
> (2) A bi-weekly study session was arranged for June 29, 1998 youth
> education.  Intelligence personnel in Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's compound were
> notified of the names of those involved, including four elected
> representatives and forty young men.
>
> (3) The authority's security forces at the gate, who usually monitor the
> entrance way of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's compound, blocked those people who
> were heading in an orderly manner to the compound. Those security forces
> pushed these NLD members, so the NLD members retreated to a traffic light
> at the junction of Kaba Aye Sati Road and University Avenue.
>
> (4) When they were informed of the incident, U Tin Oo (NLD Vice-Chairman)
> and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi (NLD General Secretary) went to the junction and
> brought those NLD members coming to the study session back to Daw Aung San
> Suu Kyi's compound in an orderly manner.
>
> (5) After blocking the NLD members at various points, a person directed the
> security forces to hit the NLD members, using abusive language, such as
> "leader or no leader -- hit her!" and "I don't care, leader or whatever,
> hit that leader!"  Those present described the person issuing the commands
> as tall, fair-skinned, and in a yellow civilian shirt.  They could identify
> him if they saw him again.
>
> (6) During the incident, the security forces hit the NLD members hard with
> police batons and tree branches from near by.  Eight NLD youth members
> suffered injuries to the head and other parts of the body as a result of
> the attack.  The location of the incident was a restricted area, so no one
> else was present.
>
> (7) Upon being informed of the incident, the NLD Chairman and three other
> NLD Executive Committee members went to the scene immediately, but the
> authorities blocked their entry.
>
> (8) Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was slightly injured. The security forces stayed
> positioned in the same location, and U Tin Oo and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi
> stayed outside of the compound in windy rain from 14:00 p.m. (6/25/98) to
> 01:00 a.m. (6/26/98).
>
> (9) The political, economic, and social crisis in the country will indeed
> not be solved by such hitting, arresting, and confining methods.
>
> Rangoon                         Central Executive Committee
> June 26, 1998                   (National League for Democracy)
>
> ****************************************************************
>
> The Nation: Poor Asean Nations Reel Under Crisis
> 29 June, 1998
>
> WHILE the spotlight is firmly on Asia's crippled "tiger" economies, the
> region's poorest countries are also feeling the pinch as their already weak
> currencies slump and trade with wealthier neighbours takes a dive.
>
> The long-isolated currencies of Burma, Laos and Cambodia have taken a
> hammering, serving only to reinforce the dominance of the US dollar in many
> circles in the poverty-stricken countries and drive up prices for basic as
> well as luxury goods.
>
> The crisis, which began with last July's float of the Thai baht and has
> since spread across Asia, has dragged landlocked Laos into the era of
> globalisation, with its kip currency trading at record lows of about 3,400
> to the dollar, down nearly 75 per cent from a year ago.
>
> The Thai Farmers Research Centre reported earlier this month that Laos's
> currency had also plunged drastically against its Thai counterpart,
> touching a low of 130 kip to the baht at the beginning of June, compared
> with between 45 to 50 kip to the baht early this year.
>
> Cambodia's riel rallied from a record low of about 4,800 to the dollar just
> before historic UN-backed elections in 1993 to around 2,700 before the
> crisis and domestic upheaval last year sent it plunging.
>
> Earlier this month the riel slumped as low as 4,300 to the dollar but has
> since steadied to about 4,000.
>
> Burma, one of the most closed countries in the world, has also been forced
> to reluctantly face up to the crisis. Although the official exchange rate
> of about six kyat to the dollar persists, traders say authorities have
> abandoned attempts to crack down on the blackmarket whenever it starts
> selling dollars for more than 300 kyat.
>
> "It used to be that every time the rate to the bench-mark of 300 kyat to
> the dollar, you could expect intelligence personnel to move in," one
> businessman involved in black-market currency dealing said.
>
> Beside the impact of the Asian economic crisis, the Burmese junta
> contributed to the currency's decline though its tendency to mint more of
> the in an effort to balance the budget," Rangoon analyst added.
>
> "Even if present import restrictions were removed, most of us would
> hesitate to import simply because it is not practical to do so at this time
> when the free market value of the kyat is so low."
>
> The turmoil has forced up prices across the board in Burma, and the costs
> of basic items such as beans, pulses and onions have soared by about 100
> per cent in Rangoon's markets in the last two weeks alone.
>
> In Cambodia, the economic woes have been compounded by seasonal rice
> shortages, drought-stricken harvests and hoarding of some commodities ahead
> of the country's scheduled July 26 elections.
>
> Finance Ministry figures show rice prices surging from US$400 a tonne in
> April to the current rate of about $430.
>
> Cambodia's economy was dealt a double blow last July when the start of the
> regional crisis coincided with Second Prime Minister Hun Sen's violent
> ouster of rival co-premier Prince Norodom Ranariddh.
>
> Foreign investors took flight, sending asset values diving and smothering
> the slow but steady growth the economy had made since 1993.
>
> In Laos, efforts by authorities to stabilise the lap currency are doomed to
> failure, and the country has little hope of emerging unscathed from the
> regional crisis, according to the Thai Farmers Bank report.
>
> The report said dwindling overseas investment, low foreign reserves, a
> sharp decline in border trade with neighbouring Thailand and a heavy
> reliance on loans and aid meant Laos could not isolate itself from regional
> woes.
>
> As the kip has declined, the government has introduced a range of measures
> to stabilise the unit, including halting the sale of foreign currencies by
> banks and imprisoning black-market dealers.
>
> In early June authorities announced that foreign currencies could only be
> purchased by businesses registered in Laos in an effort to control
> speculation and currency flows.
>
> The move followed a ban on the use of foreign currencies in trade last
> June, but the use of the Thai baht and the dollar in everyday business
> transactions remains widespread.
>
> Both measures backfired by effectively bringing an end to the local foreign
> exchange market, stimulating the re-emergence of a thriving black market
> for currencies, the research centre report said.
>
> "Some depositors withdrew their kip deposits so as to buy dollars and baht
> because they no longer had faith in their own currency," the report said.
>
> A serious clamp-down on illegal currency speculation improved the situation
> a little, with the kip edging back to around 80 to 85 to the baht in mid-June.
>
> As of the first quarter of 1998, Thailand's investment in Laos of $57
> million constituted 90 per cent of overall foreign investment in that
> country as Thai businessmen were driven by their own local woes to look for
> places offering cheaper production costs, but the report said the continued
> slump in Thailand was slowing down Thai projects in Laos.
>
> With foreign investment likely to grind to a halt, Laos' looming trouble
> will be further compounded by economic woes in Japan, which has been
> providing major aid to Vientiane.
>
> Laos' foreign reserves now stand at $190 million, or about three and a half
> month of imports. The International Monetary Fund has described that as a
> "worrisome" figure.
>
> Worse still for the poor countries, their current problems are attributed
> only to the first regional crisis. Now Laos, Cambodia and Burma await the
> effects of the so-called second wave of the crisis on their fractured
> economies.
>
> ****************************************************************
>
> The Nation: Good Ideas Need Discreet Lobbying
> 29 June by Kavi Chongkittavorn
>
> Regional Perspective
>
> Armed with a landmark idea that could change the core nature of Asean, one
> would expect the Foreign Ministry to do its homework thoroughly, including
> sufficient lobbying and discreet consultation with Asean colleagues before
> putting it to the test in the public domain.
>
> As it turns out, the ministry has done neither. Worse, the conservative
> bureaucrats there were unprepared: some of them still thought the
> initiative was a self-promotion, not to be taken seriously.
>
> When it was first broached by Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan in his speech
> in Kuala Lumpur early this month, the plan calling for a modification of
> Asean's principle of non-interference was not picked up by his
> policy-makers, with the exception of the speech-writer.
>
> Following comments and interviews made in the past weeks by the ministry,
> officials suggested that the ministry's Conservative bureaucrats had not
> yet fully appreciated his proposal, which must be considered, if it is ever
> taken up, as one of Asean's most radical and dramatic.
>
> To show that the call is not personal but on behalf of the Thai government,
> Surin proposed a similar idea a week later at Thammasat University. At that
> time the ministry's bureaucrats had not moved an inch to push Surin's
> proposal.
>
> For the minister to stick his neck out without proper support from the
> bureaucrats is a very dangerous undertaking, recipe for disaster. Doubtless
> when the foreign ministries of Laos and Burma recently summoned the Thai
> ambassadors in their respective capitals for further clarification, the
> envoys were at a loss for words and ended up giving the impression that it
> was Surin's personal Initiative. The damage had been done.
>
> After some probing in the Asean capitals and their lukewarm response, the
> plan has rapidly gone through several metamorphoses from constructive
> intervention to constructive involvement. The concept has been watered down.
>
> It was only last Friday that extra efforts were made to articulate the
> definition following a report on Thursday that Surin had decided to back
> down from his proposal. It was then that it was transformed again into
> something called "flexible engagement", whatever that means.
>
> That was the first time that Saranrom's top policy-makers had really been
> in tune with the chief and able to discuss the proposal seriously in terms
> of mechanics.
>
> Given the sensitivity of the issue and the attitude of most Asean members,
> this noble idea could end up in the dustbin of history, like many other
> proposals by Thailand in the past years, such as the call for an
> establishment of a people's council, unless the Foreign Ministry remedies
> the situation and puts the proposal in perspective along side the three
> decade history of Asean. Of late, there has been a lot of discussion about
> the possibility of reviewing the non-interference principle in, academic
> and press circles, but no Asean countries dare to put forward the idea.
> Everyone knows it is a non-starter to kick off such a move, especially at
> this juncture when the grouping is encountering plenty of uncertainties and
> unknown trends.
>
> When Malaysia's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ibrahim Anwar
> first wrote about constructive intervention last year, it was within the
> political context emanating from the political turmoil in Cambodia and
> Burma. He wanted to challenge the non-interference principle by arguing
> that intervention can be constructive on certain domestic problems within
> member countries that have immediate effects on their neighbours.
>
> Owing to the complexity of Malaysian politics and the dilemma Anwar is
> facing at the moment, he is not in a position to pursue his idea. The
> region's tumultuous events in the past several months, including the
> financial crisis, haze, migration, drug trafficking and the unexpected
> departure of president Suharto, have convinced the top Democrat Party
> leaders that Thailand could serve as a conduit to strengthen new
> cooperation and engagement within Asean and its new members.
>
> After all, Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai is considered a suitable leader to
> push forward the efforts to make Asean countries more transparent, open and
> democratic. He has on behalf of Asean on several occasions, including the
> recent second Asia-Europe Meeting in London and the Asia Pacific Economic
> Cooperation summit in Canada last year.
>
> In time of economic meltdown in the next few years, the new Asean outlook
> could serve as a fresh catalyst to garner new bargaining fore longer found
> in economic performance but rather on the level of political development
> and progress.
>
> The Thai government believes that only through this new approach can Asean
> remain a regional force to be reckoned with. In addition it would allow
> Bangkok to apply its foreign policies of protecting human rights and
> promoting democracy within a broader regional framework.
>
> To avoid the past pitfalls in which several Thai proposals were shot down
> early, the Thais have to be extremely discreet with their proposal. They
> have to follow the time-consuming Asean ritual of consensus-building. In
> addition, failure to halt confusing comments or speak with one script) or
> premature declarations of victory and acceptance before it is submitted and
> seriously considered by Asean senior officials and relevant authorities
> will definitely kill every Thai endeavour.
>
> Most importantly, in promoting idea, senior Thai officials have to abandon
> their commonly held attitude of "not rocking the boat" and "begin neglect".
> They have to be firm and bold. Why? Because they have an important job to
> convince the Asean member that as a family they should do things, be frank
> or risk harm to other family members. After all, the proposal will benefit
> Asean as a whole, not any particular nation.
>
> What good does it do Thailand if It is to enjoy the fruits of freedom and
> democracy while its neighbours, also Asean members, do not enjoy the same
> experience?
>
> ****************************************************************
>
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