RISE OF A NEW POWER, WANE OF A DEMO

[moe@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]

RISE OF A NEW POWER, WANE OF A DEMOCRACY
3rd June 1998

After stock market crashes and bank closures in Southeast Asia, what Myanmar
did was of no surprise to the  rest of the world. It is a deja vu about
dictatorial regimes like State Law and  Order Restoration Council   (SLORC).
With a name-change from the State Law and Order Restoration Council to the
State Peace  and Development Council (SPDC), the junta made a press release
with a list of the new  ministerial posts  formed of  new generals headed by
the hard-liners like General Than Shwe and General Khin Nyunt. The rest are
known to be somewhat  straightforward and sincere army brasshats who are
thought to be moderate thinkers. Yet the legitimacy of the newly- formed
SPDC was and is still in question when EU disagreed Myanmar's attendance at
EU-ASEAN meeting held in London.

While the generals of Myanmar anticipate the future of Myanmar to be
auspicious, Aung San Suu Kyi ,the opposition leader is still being harshly
criticized by the regime and barred from taking part in the political
process.Aung San Suu Kyi is still virtually under house arrest. What are the
generals up to? Observers believe  transfer of power will  be unlikely to
happen sooner in the future considering the recent shakeup in the junta.
What should the opposition do next?The opposition should be engaged more in
international campaign works. The media has almost forgotten Myanmar. CNN
was in Myanmar in March and April but wasn't able to report on the real
political situation in Myanmar.Instead CNN reported news on stolen antiques.
Was CNN Reporter Tom Mintier paid by SPDC not to report on Aung San Suu Kyi?

Sanctions did  not seem to hurt   the generals of Myanmar since they seemed
to be in control at first glance. However, one of the top brasshats, Abel ,
did admit sanctions hurt the country's economy.What the generals  know for
sure is they have already been shielded by ASEAN no matter what the regime's
policy towards the opposition is going to be. Yet when US turned down the
request of ASEAN to lift sanctions on Myanmar, the real question is "Has
ASEAN made a mistake in accepting Myanmar as a member?" The answer is yes.
Leniency towards the opposition is out of the question and to create
economic development in the nation is the first priority for the military
junta. It is a pity that the generals have lost a friend in the Thai
government. Chavalit  Yongchaiyudh, the former Prime Minister of Thailand ,
who is known to be a  loyal friend and supporter of  the military junta of
Myanmar,  was forced to resign due to his government's failure to save the
country from economic disasters. Of course Thailand's economy is going to
affect Myanmar as it is not only a major economic client but a faithful
neighbour that never spoke  against it. How Thailand's new Prime Misister
Chuan Leekpai will treat Myanmar is no mystery as he has already said
Thailand will have a constructive engagement with Myanmar.Today the Thai
government's policy towards Myanmar is no different from that of 10 years
ago, still tracking down on the dissident Burmese student groups and
opposition groups linked with NLD and NCGUB.

While the Kyat value is still falling ,US$1 is now  equivalent of Myanma
Kyat 300. Hotel managers in the Arakan State complain about lack of  enough
guests to cover the hotels' utility   expenses while the people in general
suffer from poverty and inflation. The opposition abroad can do nothing
effective more than issuing press  releases condemning the generals' move of
consolidating their power. As long as China shores up Myanmar  by giving
military equipment and training ,being shielded by ASEAN and aided by Japan
with US$1.5 million debt relief, the opposition will disable themselves in
pursuing international support to pressure Myanmar. The opposition does need
to work more arduously on Japan.So far Free Burma Coalition has been the
only threat that is menacing Myanmar  among the opposition groups.

The United States and the European Community still seem to want to bite the
bullet in terms of their policy towards Myanmar. With  sanctions still being
imposed on Myanmar ,U.S. believes the junta must give in sooner or later.
But with Clinton's double standard policy towards China, will the sanctions
be harsh enough to punish the headstrong generals? While  US and EU still
have santions on Myanmar, China and ASEAN nations still look  like a
hardcore backer to Myanmar.The answer lies ahead and will there be an
uprising  on 9/9/99 as many astrologers have predicted? As nine is the lucky
number of the regime, will the students and the people conquer this time as
in the 1988 upheaval? The answer is in the hands of the Myanma people and
how capable the military intelligence units of the regime are.Will the
people  stand the regime until 1999?Surely  the generals seem to reckon nine
as their lucky number and trust that if the political upheaval is going to
occur on the 9th of September 1999 that is 9/9/99, they seem sure they are
going to win. But the Indonesian case was quite a shock to SPDC as the
outcome wasn't what SPDC expected. The military brasshats in Indonesia said
to Suharto, " Quit!".As Indonesia was a model nation for SPDC formerly
SLORC,what SPDC would do next is now left for them unaswered. That SPDC is
in need of hard currency is undeniable for the fact that the regime has been
pushing the farmers to produce rice three times a year.

Prostitution and drug addiction have been insurmountable in Myanmar and the
regime seems to be disabled to do anything about preventive measures.
Despite recent issuance of stritct rules and regulations prohibiting
prostitution, hotels in Yangon are still full of teenager prostitutes
working to earn money for survival.

Intelligence reports from  the Central Intelligence Agency reveal that
Military Expenditures of SPDC/SLORC are enormous beyond compare. In the  FY
1995/1996 the military expentures were US$135 million and US$90 million in
1997. Why would SPDC be strengthening its military might more than ever?The
answer is crystal clear. Not in the near future they would have a government
formed by NLD ,the winning party. As long as ASEAN, China and Japan still
seem to be hardcore shields, there won't be too much of a change in Myanmar.
If the opposition, US ,EU and UN can persuade such nations to alter their
policies towards Myanmar, the situation in Myanmar can be much better
improved in terms of relations between the regime and the opposition and
that can originate a dialogue between SPDC and the NLD, the winning party.

By Julien Moe
      For IntelAsia

Reference: CNN,AP,BBC,CIA & IntelAsia DataBase