[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index ][Thread Index ]

THE NATION: Uncertainty in post-Suh



Editorial & Opinion 

      REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE:
      Uncertainty in post-Suharto Asean

      What will be the future of the post-Suharto Asean? This
      question has been raised with increased frequency these
      days in academic and diplomatic circles. So far there is
      no clear answer. 

      When Indonesia, the most important and populous
      member of Asean, goes through an unprecedented
      transition, both the short- and long-term impact on the
      grouping and the region as a whole can be far-reaching.
      Indonesia's swift changes in the past weeks have raised
      hopes that the bedrock of Asean is beginning to loosen up
      and is in the process becoming more open and
      democratic. Although the various economic and political
      reforms promised by new President Jusuf Habibie remain
      an open question, it has nevertheless brought a breath of
      fresh air into the troubled region. 

      Regardless of the final outcome of the drastic
      transformation in Indonesia, Jakarta's role in Asean in the
      post-Suharto era will never be the same again. Coupled
      with the ongoing economic crisis, Asean members have
      now been forced to re-examine some of their fundamental
      beliefs relating to the grouping's philosophy,
      decision-making, multi-faceted cooperation and future
      vision. 

      Without Suharto, the reign of other long-time Asean
      leaders doesn't look too solid either. Within Asean,
      seniority rules when it comes to decision-making despite
      its being based on consensus. And with a new corp of
      leaders, especially in the Philippines and Thailand, who
      unlike the older generation have no institutional hangovers,
      Asean could become an organisation that is more gentle,
      less elitist and more people-based. 

      As reform takes shape in Indonesia, optimism prevails
      that the post-Suharto Asean will be more receptive to
      sensitive issues such as human rights and democracy. It is
      expected that new Indonesian leaders at future Asean
      meetings will no longer be able to behave like their
      predecessors. With demands from the masses on the rise
      within the region, the top-down decision-making process
      of the past three decades in Asean has to be changed. In
      order to remain relevant to the lives of ordinary people, a
      bottom-up process could become a reality within the
      forum. 

      For instance, the long-rejected proposal to establish a
      people's council in Asean to engage citizens from all
      walks of life, including non-government organisations, so
      that they can be involved in the Asean projects could
      materialise in the future. If such a trend can be sustained, it
      would tip the balance of power among Asean members
      away from the dominant authoritarianism to the
      democratic pole. The core of Asean might shift from the
      group comprising Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore to a
      new group consisting of Indonesia, the Philippines and
      Thailand. New members such as Vietnam, Laos and
      Burma would find it increasingly difficult to accommodate
      themselves to this new group and its democratic political
      orientation. 

      At present an immediate question repeatedly being
      discussed is the future of Asean's non-interference
      principle. Already new problems such as financial
      turbulence, haze, regional migration, Aids and drug
      trafficking already beg new approaches. If joint action on
      these issues were to be taken seriously by Asean, the
      non-intervention principle that the grouping has been
      familiar with will have to go. 

      In addition internal problems in one Asean country can
      sometimes affect the whole region. For example the
      region's financial crisis was triggered by Thailand, and the
      haze problem in Indonesia caused climatic chaos in
      neighbouring countries. Without early and closer
      consultations and collaboration that go beyond the
      tradition non-interference norm, coping with future crises
      will be difficult. 

      Another pressing issue for the post-Suharto Asean is
      Burma. It is well known that Burma has looked at
      Indonesia as the model for economic and political
      development. Therefore the resignation of Suharto came
      as a shock to the military junta. It is thus understandable
      that during the turmoil in Indonesia that led to Suharto's
      demise, the mass media in Burma had blacked out
      reports on this historic event. Only when Habibie was
      inaugurated as the new president did the Burmese TV lift
      the blackout. 

      Last July Asean staked its reputation in admitting the
      military regime. Since Asean deployed its constructive
      engagement policy back in 1991 nothing much has
      improved. Indeed recent developments inside Burma
      indicate that things have worsened. Some
      Burma-watchers feared a backlash in which the Rangoon
      leaders could decide to go back to the ''Burmese Way'' of
      development, the isolationist policy that it had adopted in
      the past. 

      Since Burma joined Asean, overall relations between
      Asean and its Western dialogue partners have suffered.
      With its interests hinging on good ties with the West,
      Asean has been trying hard to use quiet diplomacy and
      peer pressure to bring about positive changes in Burma
      and encourage dialogue between the regime's leaders
      and the opposition, but these efforts have yet to produce
      results. 

      If they fail and Burma remains a thorn in European
      Union-Asean ties, suggestions have been made by
      Southeast Asian scholars that ways must be found to
      punish Burma, such as suspension of membership.
      Although it is far-fetched for a post-Suharto Asean to
      boycott Burma, it is not impossible, and when push comes
      to shove, Asean would prefer to maintain its ties with the
      West and sacrifice Burma. 

      After all, Asean needs Western support in overcoming its
      current economic crisis at a time when its bargaining
      power is on the wane. If that is the scenario, Burma could
      see itself out of Asean in the near future. 

      BY KAVI CHONGKITTAVORN 

      The Nation