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Present Situtaion of Burma (r)



Re: Present Situation of Burma

Dear Dr Mikio Oishi,

I appreciate your interest in our country's well being. First, I must 
add that some of the KA's point of views are note worthy. 

To complicate the matter, the real person in charge in Burma (i.e Ne Win 
) chose to remain behind the scene since the 1988 crisis. Because it 
works for him for ten long years already, I am certain that he will 
remain a sole person who controls the generals from behind the curtain 
as long as he lives. I hate to say this, but it's true. Ne Win got all 
of the generals beholden to him so much so that they will only act on 
matters that receive blessings from him and from him alone.

So,talking to the generals of the junta on matters of this magnitude 
will get us nowhere. Yet, it appears that no one can talk to Ne Win as 
he had detached himself out the political circle. 

Now, the question is who will be able to talk to Ne Win as he is the 
only person who junta fears most?  

Choosing ASEAN alone to mediate would be a waste of time as I have said 
earlier. So, the best choice is to turn to an international body with 
wide representation from Asia, Europe,USA to mediate under the 
supervision of the UN. You may include other persons like former 
President Jimmy Carter of Carter Foundation to lead this international 
body. I also feel very strongly that we must somehow get Ne Win involved 
as part of the solutions. 

So, my suggestions for you to consider therefore is to find someone who 
would be able to talk to Ne Win. There are two prominent leaders from 
the ASEAN countries you may like to suggest. SUHARTO of Indonesia and 
LEE KUAN YEW of Singapore would be able to talk to Ne Win directly.( You 
may recall that similar suggestions to get Ne Win as a mediator already 
existed in the Burmese political cricle, very recently). Let them try to 
get Ne Win agreed to be involved in this mediating process. It is not 
clear if they have the heart to do it or if they have any real influence 
over the strong man Ne Win. But, it's worth a try for the sake of peace 
in Burma.

Thanks.

Minn Kyaw Minn
==============


>Date: 19 Apr 1998 23:05:46
>Reply-To: Conference "reg.burma" <burmanet-l@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>From: kabaraye@xxxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: Present Situtaion of Burma
>To: Recipients of burmanet-l <burmanet-l@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>
>Dear Dr Mikio Oishi,
>
>I'd like to congratulate you on the research you have carried out and 
>the interest shown in Burma's problems.
>
>Before you can discuss mediation and negotiatin between the "two camps" 
>you need to understand what the mentality of these people , especially 
, 
>the JUNTA are.This is something not possible just by literature reviews 
>but is something that one learns after more than 30 years of suffering 
>at their hands.
>To understand the junta's mentality you need to go back all the way and 
>understand Ne Win's mentality. The present day army was born out of Ne 
>Win's "vision , ideology and designs" and their primary objectives are 
>to rule as they see fit and protect their ill-gotten gains and make 
sure 
>they are untouchable. 
>
>It is this FEAR of losing out that ensures that no one but no one 
>interferes with their leadership and authority and they will ensure 
that 
>their future role in the country should always be that of empowerment 
as 
>evidenced by their charade of a constitution that is being drawn up.
>
>Unlike Marcos , The Burmese strongman/men ( Ne Win in the wings??)have 
>consolidated so much power that neither the clergy nor breakaway army 
>groups can influence them yet. All this to let you know that it's just 
>not a case of - Let's talk !. 
>
>More important , it should be who to talk to ( ? the hard liners) ,what 
>language to use (diplomacy, sanctions, brute force ? )and which body to 
>ensure that promises are kept after the talk.
>
>With regard to your questions, assuming Talks can be initiated, ASEAN 
is 
>not necessarily a good choice  simply because it happens to be close 
by. 
>The only vested interest ASEAN ever had in Burma was it's economic 
>potential and good investment opportunities for "early birds".They do 
>not even begin to understand the realities faced by the people of Burma 
>who suffer hardships daily. They try not to delve into these matters 
>less it upsets the relationship with the powers that be in Rangoon. 
>
>A probable choice would be an international body represented by 
>countries from Asia , Europe and America (USA) to ensure a balanced 
>monitoring but obviously getting the junta to agree to this would be 
the 
>first obstacle.
>
>Whoever mediates on this issue needs to be able to influence both 
>parties and that means you would have to look for someone the junta 
>fears rather than respect. Respect is not in their vocabulary.
>
>I hope I have been able to contribute to your request.
>
>KA
>
>
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