Present Situtaion of Burma

[kabaraye@xxxxxxxxxxx]

Dear Dr Mikio Oishi,

I'd like to congratulate you on the research you have carried out and 
the interest shown in Burma's problems.

Before you can discuss mediation and negotiatin between the "two camps" 
you need to understand what the mentality of these people , especially , 
the JUNTA are.This is something not possible just by literature reviews 
but is something that one learns after more than 30 years of suffering 
at their hands.
To understand the junta's mentality you need to go back all the way and 
understand Ne Win's mentality. The present day army was born out of Ne 
Win's "vision , ideology and designs" and their primary objectives are 
to rule as they see fit and protect their ill-gotten gains and make sure 
they are untouchable. 

It is this FEAR of losing out that ensures that no one but no one 
interferes with their leadership and authority and they will ensure that 
their future role in the country should always be that of empowerment as 
evidenced by their charade of a constitution that is being drawn up.

Unlike Marcos , The Burmese strongman/men ( Ne Win in the wings??)have 
consolidated so much power that neither the clergy nor breakaway army 
groups can influence them yet. All this to let you know that it's just 
not a case of - Let's talk !. 

More important , it should be who to talk to ( ? the hard liners) ,what 
language to use (diplomacy, sanctions, brute force ? )and which body to 
ensure that promises are kept after the talk.

With regard to your questions, assuming Talks can be initiated, ASEAN is 
not necessarily a good choice  simply because it happens to be close by. 
The only vested interest ASEAN ever had in Burma was it's economic 
potential and good investment opportunities for "early birds".They do 
not even begin to understand the realities faced by the people of Burma 
who suffer hardships daily. They try not to delve into these matters 
less it upsets the relationship with the powers that be in Rangoon. 

A probable choice would be an international body represented by 
countries from Asia , Europe and America (USA) to ensure a balanced 
monitoring but obviously getting the junta to agree to this would be the 
first obstacle.

Whoever mediates on this issue needs to be able to influence both 
parties and that means you would have to look for someone the junta 
fears rather than respect. Respect is not in their vocabulary.

I hope I have been able to contribute to your request.

KA


______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com