WHAT I SAW AND HEARD IN MYANMAR By

[brelief@xxxxxxx]

Organ Paper of Japan-Myanmar Friendship Association No.104, January '98   		
(as posted on soc.culture.burma)			
 WHAT I SAW AND HEARD IN MYANMAR  By Kenichi Ohmae

(The Author Kenichi Ohmae is an internationally recognized author, public
speaker and management consultant. For 23 years, Dr. Ohmae was a partner in
McKinsey & Co., the management consulting firm. As a confounder of its
strategic management practice, he served companies in a wide spectrum of
industries; he is known throughout the world as "Mr. Strategy." Among his
best known books in English: The Borderless World (Harper Business). The End
of the Nation State (Free Press) and The Evolving Global Economy (editor,
Harvard Business School Press).

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To our surprise, Myanmar military government is doing well.
 
First of all, as far as I talked with businessman. leading staffs of the
government and ordinary citizens at the capital city Yangon,I got the
impression that now the existence of Mrs.Aung San Suu Kyi itself became a
heavy burden for Myanmar. It is true that the present government which
banished NLD led by Suu Kyi who was elected by the general election with
coup d'etat was an unlawful act. However, it is also true that there are so
many similar unlawful governments backed up by military forces exist in
Asia,Africa, South America and all over the world. I believe almost half of
189 countries in the world have similar governments and it is not strange
thing at all. 

As a matter of fact, the present Myanmar military government is actually
managing the country quite well. Mr. Kim, the Chairman of Daewoo Company, a
Korean enterprise started the production of textile and electric utensils in
Myanmar about 10 years ago and using more than 20,000 employees, told me "
Compare with 10 years ago, today is just like a Paradise. We are making
reasonable profits and our employee's will to work is very high. "           

Among the friends of mine who visited Myanmar with me  this time, there are
two persons, one came here last year and another  3 years ago. Both of them
were struck with admiration, because all states of things have changed and
improved within such a short period. Daily commodities in markets increased
twice more, infrastructures such as roads were improved and it is almost
impossible to find soldiers on the streets. We can not feel that we are in
the country under military rule at all.

 Depend on how to look at the present government, our attitude toward the
Myanmar problems may change 180 degrees opposite.At least the people in
business fields are supporting the present government and not Mrs. Suu Kyi.
Every businessmen I met said the  same thing unanimously. They think if Mrs.
Suu Kyi took the power she may only crying loud " Democracy " and can do
nothing. May be she will be worse than ex-Philippine President Mrs. Corazon
Aquino and make the country unstable. On the other hand, among ordinary
citizens who are not in business society, there are  many people who show
favour to Mrs. Suu Kyi. If elections were to be held she would be elected
overwhelmingly with 3 to 1. 

Therefore, America made Mrs. Suu Kyi  Jeanne D'Arc of Myanmar and use her as
a spokeswoman to send their propaganda for the alleged oppression the
present Myanmar government committed. I can not understand why America needs
to do such thing. 
Within 1 or 2 years, Mrs. Suu Kyi will be a character bygone.

They said that the present government is not democratic, than what about
China? China neither held election nor is a democratic country. Why American
take the policy to isolate Myanmar government which is progressing so
firmly. I can not understand it. As the result, the Myanmar people are
forced to suffer from inconvenient daily living. Investors of Japan and
ASEAN countries also have in invest in Myanmar indirectly through some dummy
companies, so that they do not incur displeasure of America.

However, Myanmar is one of most charming country in the world to invest. The
people of Myanmar are known as pious Buddhists with high morality and warm
hearted. Except only for the mountainous region in northern part of the
country, public peace in the country is maintained very well. I think it is
the only safe Asian country where you can walk the streets alone in night
except Singapore and Japan. Our guide told me that he never heard any murder
case here. 

Streets are so clean and they have no slum quarters, because there are no
disparity of wealth. In Indonesia, Thai, Philippines and others , they have
big differences between the rich and poor. People who are no longer able to
make living in farm villages flow into cities and live there miserable life.
But in Myanmar, they have neither such urban problems nor poverty problems.
Farmers of this country are all owners of farm land, and their living are
self-sufficiency. There are no big farm lane owners of tenant farmers.

The daily life of Myanmar people remind me of old Japan. I was born in a
remote country side on of Kyushu Island. All children were running around
with barefoot, and lighting was only kerosene lamps. We can see such dear
old Japanese farm villages in the present Myanmar. Probably, if we compare
with America, Japanese village at the time were poor, but we did not feel
any hard time, because it was self-sufficiency. Except only for a while
right  after the last war, we never had any difficulties of foods. We can
say the same thing to Myanmar. Statistically, their GNP per person is as low
as $300-400, but it does not hurt them at all.

GNP of China is less than $500,  almost same level with Myanmar, but China
is already on the stage of money-worship. They are cunning and we should be
on our guards, otherwise they may cheat us. Vietnam too. They decided to go
toward industrialization society. In such a country, the people's desire to
material is going up and everybody becomes crazy to be rich quickly. So, in
Vietnam, large crowds of bicycles and motor scooters are running around on
streets constantly. To the contrary, nobody is in a hurry in Myanmar.
Although they and so diligent and hard workers, they are living peacefully
and contented with honest poverty. It is the present and real state of Myanmar. 

"Come to think of that, I believe within 1 or 2 years, Mrs.Suu Kyi will be a
character bygone for the people of Myanmar. Because the military government
relaxed various government controls in rapid succession with the soft policy
and aiming at market economy."  In this year, they could join ASEAN. As the
fable " North wind and the Sun " said they started to remove their heavy
coat now. In the field of infrastructure,the road to famous sightseeing
attraction Bagan ruins was paved completely  last year. It used to take
several hours but now we can get there only for about 2 hours. Everybody can
see such development easily, so may be the people say soon " we don't like
military government but the county is developing quickly." The current of
time will run ahead of Mrs. Suu Kyi in near future.

The greatest consumer of narcotics is America.Isn't it?

America is blaming Myanmar on another problem. That is narcotics. At poor
region of northern Myanmar, people are cultivation poppy to produce
narcotics. America is blaming that the Myanmar government is not eager to
regulate or control it and overlooking it by receiving bribes.

Concerning to this matter, we met the Minister of Economic Development David
Abel. He was real angry and said " It is terrible misunderstanding " and
continued " Myanmar government is working on eradication of narcotics at the
risk of our own life. By this campaign, 600 government officials lost their
lives. Not only that, 3000 citizens were also entangled and died. We are
doing our best efforts, but America forget the fact that Americans are the
greatest consumers of narcotic  and just keep blaming Myanmar. We  can not
understand what they are thinking. " 

Then. what is the real state of matter? So, I asked  a businessman about it.
His answer was that what the government side is true but at the same time
the government is making a deal with narcotic organization. He said that if
the government really started an all-out war against them, far more people
may die because those organization are well armed.Therefore, the government
drive them into corner in certain extent, then persuading them " We will
give you some more time, so why don't you change to some other business and
stop dealing with narcotics. " We may say that it is a little easy going way.

Another businessman had a different opinion. The remote region of Myanmar is
very steep mountainous area which directly connected Himalaya  mountains.
There are no roads to reach the area. If poor inhabitants in such
mountainous area produce something else to obtain money by selling it, they
must go to towns located several hundreds kilometers away, but they have no
means to do that. Narcotics is only product, which buyers come to their
village and pay money in cash. There is no other industry or products they
can get cash except narcotics. Without giving appropriate advice to them to
solve this problem and just saying stop to make narcotics is the same thing
to tell them simply " Drop dead." In other words, until traffic networks is
improved, this problem is in a vicious circle of a rat race, he pointed out.

Therefore, most important thing is that the infrastructure is improved in
future and those inhabitants in mountainous area can make living by some
other means, such as tourism. But, I doubt it because there are no tourist
who wish to go to the place where government troops and armed narcotic
organizations are shooting each others.

After all, during the trip in this time, I felt keenly that America's
opinion is too one-sided. " The American active figure of Myanmar bashing is
Mr. George Soros, a speculator. I met him before when I had and interview
with him for the magazine " Sapio ". At that time I asked him " Have you
ever been in Myanmar? ",he said  "No." How can a man who never visited there
criticize that country". If we visit this country once, everyone start to
love Myanmar. Why America imposes sanction on them just because it is under
the rule of military government and not democratic? I can not agree this
policy of America at all. What is diplomacy? What is ODA ? Without
understanding these things, we can not do anything. If we just only
following American policy, we shall never be able to be a real friend of any
Asian country.

You can not understand why " the theory of Myanmar is originally wrong " is
a great mistake unless you visit Myanmar

First of all, the industries itself has a great possibility in future.
Especially it's rich agricultural resources is so marvelous. Central flat
land of about 1,100 sq.km x 200sq.km wide is may be widest plain in
Southeast Asia. The Irrawaddy River run through this plain, and the lower
reaches of the river is an ideal area for large scaled rice production. We
drove around in this area by a bus, and saw the plain with rich water spread
over the till horizon. It is really ideal place for rice paddy. I thought
that in near future, it will be the largest and best granary of Asia.
Recently, the plantation type agriculture such as rubber, palm oil and
others which can cultivate at undulation plain is increasing rapidly too.

Another item is teak. It is said that 80% of teak in the world is produced
here. At present, they are not exporting teak to Japan and western countries
because of the economic sanction,but when it is lifted the demand will be
greatly increased. 

Then the hemp. Understand many jute is growing wild here. In Japan, price of
hemp is much higher than cotton, but in this country it's price is
unbelievably cheap. We visited one of carpet factories, and found out 1
sq.meter of hemp carpet was only 500 yen. Although  technically it is still
unskilled and the design is not good, but if some Japanese textile company
train them it will be a promising export item for them.

Exceptionally in Asian countries, Myanmar has rich natural resources.
Jewelry such as jade, ruby or sapphire, and mineral resources such as
petroleum, tin or tungsten are laying under the ground.

Monthly wages of factory worker is $20

Myanmar's wages of workers are surprisingly low. Myanmar currency kyat is
double converting rate system. Official rate is $1 = 6 kyats, but actual
rate is $1 = 250 kyats as of the end of September when I was there.
Difference is more than 40 times. The average monthly salary of a government
official is 1,000 kyats, which means $4 by official rate. I heard that rice
and others are supplied to them with free of charge, but still I wondered
how they live on with that amount. On the other hand, average monthly salary
of a young woman worker of carpet factory, sewing factory of marine products
factory is 5,000 kyats ($20) and manager is 8,000 kyats ($32).

Compare with other Asian countries, Vietnam is about $50, Philippines is
about $150. In China, Dairen is $100 - 150 and Shenzhen is more than $500.
It means that Myanmar is 1/2 - 1/10 of other Asian labour markets. If
compare with Japan (About 350,000 yen), it is only 1/150.

In addition to that, education level and wills to work of Myanmar people is
quite high. Their moral sense also high, so nobody steal money or other
articles. Their population is nearly 50 millions. I may say it is a top
class labour market in the world.

After investments from overseas increase and join to ASEAN market, then
Myanmar will win overwhelmingly on the competition in the fields of
agriculture and manufacturing.

They have another advantage, that is English language. Most of them can
understand English, because their country was a British colony before.
Children start to learn English at 2nd year of primary school. Incidentally,
when they joined ASEAN, the Myanmar Foreign Minister made a speech. His
English was perfect. At that time, I thought it was because he is the
Foreign Minister, but I found out later that most of Myanmar people can
speak English. As a matter of fact, every Myanmar businessmen whom I met
here speaks fluent English as if it is their native language. In China or
Vietnam, English Language do not work, so I believe it will be a great
advantage of Myanmar for the trade in the world in future.

Some of them understand even Japanese language. Young street vendors talked
to us in Japanese " KORE KATTE KUDASAI " ( by this please ) or " YASUIN YO "
( It's cheap ). Their accent and pronunciation were very good. It was not
difficult to make simple conversation in Japanese with them.

Recently, young people who are coming to Japan to study or work is
increasing. So relation between our two countries will be much more closer.
	
Joining to ASEAN will be the beginning of development

They also have rich resources for tourism. There are so  many ruins of
Buddhism in all over the country. It will draw attention of the people in
the world as on of best sightseeing  attractions.

Naturally, the price of commodities are low. Foods and drinks in a street
stall type shops near a highway were so cheap. They were only 10 or 15 cents
in American dollars. However,places where tourists often visit show the
price by dollar and they are rather expensive. For example, the hair cut at
barber shop in hotel is $15, massage is $10, and 20 picture post cards young
boys are selling of the street is $1.

At a market named Aung San Market in Yangon city, price of souvenirs are
less than half of the price in hotel, and depend on the negotiation, the
price goes down rapidly. A friend of mine bought a ruby. At the beginning
the price was $200, but after the negotiation it became only $5. I bought
silk cloth which Myanmar people make longyi, a kind of skirt they wear. At
beginning it was $20, so I negotiated just like my friend did and it became
$6, then finally it went down to $10 for two. 

Another surprised thing was procedure of immigration. I thought Myanmar is
still under the rule of the military government, so the check must be
strict. But, after they joined ASEAN, it was relaxed. Before I went there,
someone told me that they may confiscate portable telephone or personal
computer if I have them, and if we made false report to custom officers,
they will put us in jail. But it was not true, we could pass through easily
and freely.

If some capable leader who know well about economy like the Prime Minister
Mahatir of Malaysia of ex-Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore comes out
and lead the country,Myanmar will develop at a stretch. When the development
reach on a stable road, Myanmar will be the best country in Asia. I have
been associating many Asian countries for a long time, But I never seen the
country like Myanmar where they have strong moral sense based on Buddhism.

The military government was a necessary-evil at that time

A businessman stationed in Myanmar told me that they had to strengthen their
military forces to maintain domestic peace and order, because the political
situation was unstable by endless civil wars. Then when civil wars were
quelled, wars against narcotic organizations broke out and democratic civil
government could not rule country. In other words we should not simply
define  " Military government equal evil ",but we must understand the
military government was a necessity-evil at that time.

However, the businessman continued that now menace of communism had gone and
they could almost control the narcotic problems practically, so the military
government is not necessary anymore. They should establish a democratic
government now. He emphasized.

We never heard this kind of opinion in Japan. From the historical view
point, we can not justify the military government. On the other hand we may
say that they had the military government, so they could reach the stage to
start to walk toward democracy. If they had not the military government,
there were possibility that they became a communist country and confused
like Cambodia and Laos. Or it became the country where narcotic
organizations rule them behind a curtain like Colombia.

Now, they could remove the menace of inside of the country, and at last they
became a country, which they can manage the country without military
government. Then, it is the matter of course that the power should be
transferred to a civil government. 

However, as I mentioned before, America is too hostile to Myanmar. Using
Mrs. Aung San Suu Kyi was their spokeperson for their propaganda and have
her agitate the Myanmar people. Under these situation, the military
government can not give up their armaments. In other words the unreasonable
interference of America and other foreign countries is making the military
government stiffer more. The above mentioned businessman said it.

I wish to repeat it that as far as we are in Japan, we will never be able to
have this kind of important view point. If we take that the military
government equal evil and compel the democracy to the people of the country
where the GNP per person is $300, then the country will be like Cambodia.
The election of Cambodia was held under the pressure of OECD of America,
Japan and other countries in the name of U.N. As you know well its result
was meaningless. If we do the same thing to Myanmar, we may get the same
result. Then, what should we do ? Japan and AESAN countries should inform
the real state of Myanmar to America and have them stop the " Theory of
Myanmar is evil " which Mr. George Soros is agitating.

Whenever we wish to know a foreign country, we must take  a balance of our
view point both from outside and inside. Otherwise, we may make a big
mistake. Therefore, I wish to advise to Japanese young people to visit to
Myanmar as many as they can. We have direct flights to Yangon from Kansai
International Airport 3 times a week. Now I hope strongly they look at
Myanmar with their own eyes so that the image of " Oppression by the
military government. Poor Mrs.Aung San Suu Kyi " is not true.
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