The Nation: Politics hold the key t

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Editorial & Opinion 

      EDITORIAL/Politics holds
      the key to Indonesia's
      troubles

      IT is an old tale but the lesson is rarely
      learned. Indonesia's ageing President
      Suharto had the chance over the past 30
      years to lay the foundations for the mature
      political, economic and social development
      of his country. At the very least, he could
      have paved the way for an acceptable
      successor. 

      Instead he played off one faction against
      another with the sole aim of protecting his
      grip on power. The political, economic and
      social crises facing Indonesia at the
      moment are a telling sign of a failure of
      leadership. Indonesia, a key member of
      Asean with political clout in the non-aligned
      and Muslim countries, is heading towards
      chaos and social collapse. 

      The accumulation of vested interests
      around the president has ensnared the
      country like a spider's web with policy
      decision-making now in obvious disarray.
      There has been one crisis after another --
      from the disastrous proposed budget last
      month that led to an emergency intervention
      by the International Monetary Fund, to the
      attempt to name the unpopular Research
      and Technology Minister Jusuf Habibie as
      Suharto's successor, followed by the
      confusion over the introduction of a
      currency board system to stabilise the
      rupiah. 

      The International Monetary Fund was blunt
      in its message from Washington when it
      insisted that Indonesia was not ready for a
      currency board regime amid the political
      uncertainty that exists there. 

      The criticism from outside should not be
      used as an excuse to deny that many of
      Indonesia's problems are home-grown. For
      decades, factions have emerged around
      Suharto and even among members of his
      own family. As one faction appeared to
      gain Suharto's favour, others tended to
      panic and over-react -- in terms of political
      manoeuvring and even taking capital out of
      the country. 

      The situation has become even more
      precarious with the presidential congress
      only a month away and Suharto standing for
      re-election for a fifth time. Suharto is
      expected to win but his stature has been
      badly bruised due to his government's
      economic mismanagement and the
      outbreak of protests across the country. 

      The issue of naming a successor remains
      pivotal. Thursday's naming of Gen Wiranto
      as the new armed forces commander was
      supposed to boost national stability, but it
      was clouded or even cancelled out by the
      appointment of Suharto's son-in-law Maj
      Gen Prabowo Subianto as head of the elite
      Kostrad strategic reserves. 

      With key personnel surrounding the
      president in a state of flux, it is no wonder
      that economic policies are similarly so. But
      there is no time for uncertainty. The markets
      are looking for unity in decision making and
      accountability. None is forthcoming. Every
      day, the crisis spreads like wildfire. 

      Suharto is a prime source of the instability
      because he runs after advice from one
      faction to another. He has become the
      classic dictator in disarray. For Indonesia to
      get out of its current perilous situation will
      require nothing short of a leadership
      change. Golkar and the armed forces will
      be key in determining how events pan out
      ahead of the election. But the markets and
      citizens reeling from price hikes might not
      have the patience to wait a month for a
      political solution. 

      What Indonesia needs urgently is a
      leadership that listens to impartial advice.
      The country has a lot of competent
      technocrats who know what best to do to
      head off the crisis, but they are being
      pushed aside by the vested interests
      around Suharto. 

      The first thing that must be done is to get a
      team of competent people in place and
      give them the support to act. Rationality and
      calm must be exercised now to avert the
      collapse of Indonesia. Getting there will
      require quick political action. 

      The Nation