the nation 980212

[suriya@xxxxxxxxxxxx]

Mailbag 

      Suharto can look to
      Thailand or Burma for
      way out

      MORE serious confrontations and riots in
      Indonesia seem to be unavoidable unless
      President Suharto gives up his 30-year
      monopoly on power and lets other political
      groups have more participation in national
      politics. 

      This is unlikely to happen because he, his
      family and his military supporters will be the
      big losers. 

      Based on political theory and history, elites
      always hesitate to give up their power and it
      always ends up in a bloody conflict with the
      people. There are many examples in recent
      political history, such as the fall of the
      military government in Thailand, President
      Marcos of the Philippines, President Park
      Chung-hee of South Korea and many
      incidents in Latin American and Africa. 

      These elites had two things in common --
      they had been in power too long and they
      were corrupt. The sad political scenarios
      go something like this: 

      - In developing countries, only a handful of
      elites control political power and wealth and
      most people are poor; 

      - Absolute power corrupts absolutely; 

      - These powerful and corrupt elites
      squander national resources and revenues
      and eventually cause political, economic
      and social chaos; 

      - People feel discontented; 

      - Uprisings, confrontations, riots and civil
      war may occur. 

      I think time is running out for Suharto. If he
      wants to hang around for a few more years,
      he should consult his Burmese military
      friends. The Burmese military government
      knows a lot about political manipulation
      tactics. 

      If he wants a peaceful solution, our
      Chamlong and/or Suchinda could give him
      and his military supporters a good practical
      lesson on how to avoid a bloody civil war. 

      Monthon 

      Bangkok