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NEWS-Burma-Outlook:JUNTA'S Grip Int
- Subject: NEWS-Burma-Outlook:JUNTA'S Grip Int
- From: BurmaJapan@xxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 30 Dec 1997 15:19:00
Burma-Outlook:JUNTA'S Grip Intact, but Calls for Change Rising
Inter Press Service
29-DEC-97
BANGKOK, (Dec. 29) IPS - As one more
year passes by, military-ruled Burma
looks no closer to democracy than before,
but there are signs that the generals who
rule this country are under increasing
domestic and foreign pressure to change
their ways.
Of all the events that marked 1997 for
Burma's military junta, nothing was more
significant than the country's admission
into the Association of South-east Asian
Nations (ASEAN) in July. The
membership, seen as another step toward
legitimizing the military regime, came after
months of stiff opposition from
pro-democracy groups and western
governments.
For pro-democracy Burmese groups, the
development during the year that was
most intriguing and yet promising was the
replacement in mid-November of the State
Law and Order Restoration Council
(SLORC), which came to power eight
years ago, by the State Peace and
Development Committee (SPDC).
In the internal reshuffle within the military
top brass, 14 ministers in the 20-member
SLORC Cabinet were removed on
grounds of old age, poor health and most
significantly, for corruption.
The deposed members were in charge of
ministries like commerce, agriculture,
tourism, forestry, home affairs,
immigration, industry, border areas
development and social welfare.
Though anti-government activists believe
the military regime's change of name and
face are cosmetic in nature, they point out
that the move definitely signifies a rift
within the ruling junta as well as mounting
pressure on it to do something about the
corruption and inefficiency that mark its
rule.
According to reports from Rangoon, the
houses of several former ministers have
been raided in search of unaccounted
wealth and private businessmen and
individuals who have had relations with
them are also being questioned.
"The reshuffle at the top is supposedly
meant to show that the regime is capable
of correcting its mistakes on its own, but
the truth is that corruption among SLORC
officials was getting way out of hand,"
says a political analyst in Rangoon.
On Sep 18, 1989, amid utter confusion
following the resignation of former
Burmese dictator General Newin, that a
group of military officers formed SLORC
and brutally suppressed activists
demanding restoration of democracy,
killing hundreds.
Initially meant to be a transitional
government, SLORC has not given up
power despite losing heavily in a 1990
general election to opposition leader and
Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi's
National League for Democracy (NLD).
SLORC leaders claim power will be
handed over only after the drafting a new
national constitution -- for which a national
convention was started in 1993 -- to give
the military a substantial role in the
running of the country.
Suu Kyi has boycotted the convention,
saying the constitution- drafting process
was being conducted in an undemocratic
manner. Since then hundreds of NLD
activists have been arrested, harassed
and even forced to quit the party by the
regime.
Though in July the junta made the surprise
move of holding talks with a senior NLD
member and in September even allowed
the party to hold its annual congress in
Rangoon, it refused to see Suu Kyi or her
top two deputies.
This prompted the NLD to accuse the
government of trying to split the opposition
leadership. "The government is
deliberately avoiding the dialogue, since it
has no desire to follow the path of
meaningful negotiation to solve existing
political, economical and social
problems," a party statement said.
There has also been no perceptible shift in
the regime's policy of harassing
opponents and brutally suppressing all
dissent.
On Dec. 9, for example, six NLD members
were sentenced to six years in prison for
"disturbing the public or law and order",
and a seventh was sentenced to eight
years. All seven were detained a month
earlier in connection with attempts by the
NLD to hold organizational meetings in
various Rangoon townships.
According to a recently released United
States State Department report on the
human rights situation in Burma, the
quality of life of the Burmese citizen during
much of 1997 has only worsened.
"There continue to be credible reports,
particularly from ethnic
minority-dominated areas along the Thai
border, that soldiers have committed
serious human rights abuses, including
rape, forced porterage, and extrajudicial
killing. Disappearances continue, and
members of the security forces beat and
otherwise abuse detainees. Arbitrary
arrests and detentions continue for
expression of dissenting political views,"
the report said.
Human rights activists say that several
hundred, if not more, political prisoners
remain in detention, including 29
Members of Parliament elected in 1990.
Prison conditions remain deplorable and
prisoners lack food and adequate medical
care.
In response to street protests by large
groups of students in November and
December 1996, SLORC closed the
nation's schools and universities. While
SLORC finally reopened primary schools
in August 1997, universities remain closed
to prevent another outbreak of student
protest.
On the economic front too, the situation in
this resource-rosh yet impoverished
country deteriorated during the year.
While inflation has ranged between 30 to
40 percent annually for the past several
years, in 1997 prices of imported goods
shot up phenomenally due to the dramatic
fall in the value of the Burmese currency
from around 160 kyat to the U.S. dollar at
the beginning of the year to more than 300
kyat by December.
Again while in previous years foreign
investment -- attracted by its rich natural
resources and cheap labor -- poured into
Burma, the currency turmoil in South-east
Asian economies has led to the
cancellation of several projects.
Thai business groups, which form the bulk
of the foreign investors in terms of volume
in Burma, have stopped funding their
projects in the country due to liquidity
problems at home.
The biggest blow to the SLORC regime's
hopes of putting the Burmese economy on
the fast track however has been the failure
of its "Visit Myanmar year," launched in
late 1996. The number of actual arrivals
during the year has been less than half the
official target of 500,000 tourists set by the
government.
This has led to the collapse of numerous
tourism-related businesses, as well as
widespread layoffs in large foreign-owned
hotels that had been set up in anticipation
of a tourism boom.
"The biggest challenge ahead of the
Burmese government in the coming year
will be to prevent the economy from
collapsing completely due to the adverse
economic situation throughout the
South-east Asia region," says an ASEAN
diplomat in Rangoon.
The diplomat says Burma's political
situation has always been closely linked to
the fate of its economy. If the downturn in
its economic fortunes continues, then 1998
-- which also marks a decade of the
country's pro-democracy movement --
could well prove to be a year of social and
political surprises too.