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NEWS-Burma-Outlook:JUNTA'S Grip Int



Burma-Outlook:JUNTA'S Grip Intact, but Calls for Change Rising

               Inter Press Service
               29-DEC-97

               BANGKOK, (Dec. 29) IPS - As one more
               year passes by, military-ruled Burma
               looks no closer to democracy than before,
               but there are signs that the generals who
               rule this country are under increasing
               domestic and foreign pressure to change
               their ways. 

               Of all the events that marked 1997 for
               Burma's military junta, nothing was more
               significant than the country's admission
               into the Association of South-east Asian
               Nations (ASEAN) in July. The
               membership, seen as another step toward
               legitimizing the military regime, came after
               months of stiff opposition from
               pro-democracy groups and western
               governments. 

               For pro-democracy Burmese groups, the
               development during the year that was
               most intriguing and yet promising was the
               replacement in mid-November of the State
               Law and Order Restoration Council
               (SLORC), which came to power eight
               years ago, by the State Peace and
               Development Committee (SPDC). 

               In the internal reshuffle within the military
               top brass, 14 ministers in the 20-member
               SLORC Cabinet were removed on
               grounds of old age, poor health and most
               significantly, for corruption. 

               The deposed members were in charge of
               ministries like commerce, agriculture,
               tourism, forestry, home affairs,
               immigration, industry, border areas
               development and social welfare. 

               Though anti-government activists believe
               the military regime's change of name and
               face are cosmetic in nature, they point out
               that the move definitely signifies a rift
               within the ruling junta as well as mounting
               pressure on it to do something about the
               corruption and inefficiency that mark its
               rule. 

               According to reports from Rangoon, the
               houses of several former ministers have
               been raided in search of unaccounted
               wealth and private businessmen and
               individuals who have had relations with
               them are also being questioned. 

               "The reshuffle at the top is supposedly
               meant to show that the regime is capable
               of correcting its mistakes on its own, but
               the truth is that corruption among SLORC
               officials was getting way out of hand,"
               says a political analyst in Rangoon. 

               On Sep 18, 1989, amid utter confusion
               following the resignation of former
               Burmese dictator General Newin, that a
               group of military officers formed SLORC
               and brutally suppressed activists
               demanding restoration of democracy,
               killing hundreds. 

               Initially meant to be a transitional
               government, SLORC has not given up
               power despite losing heavily in a 1990
               general election to opposition leader and
               Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi's
               National League for Democracy (NLD). 

               SLORC leaders claim power will be
               handed over only after the drafting a new
               national constitution -- for which a national
               convention was started in 1993 -- to give
               the military a substantial role in the
               running of the country. 

               Suu Kyi has boycotted the convention,
               saying the constitution- drafting process
               was being conducted in an undemocratic
               manner. Since then hundreds of NLD
               activists have been arrested, harassed
               and even forced to quit the party by the
               regime. 

               Though in July the junta made the surprise
               move of holding talks with a senior NLD
               member and in September even allowed
               the party to hold its annual congress in
               Rangoon, it refused to see Suu Kyi or her
               top two deputies. 

               This prompted the NLD to accuse the
               government of trying to split the opposition
               leadership. "The government is
               deliberately avoiding the dialogue, since it
               has no desire to follow the path of
               meaningful negotiation to solve existing
               political, economical and social
               problems," a party statement said. 

               There has also been no perceptible shift in
               the regime's policy of harassing
               opponents and brutally suppressing all
               dissent. 

               On Dec. 9, for example, six NLD members
               were sentenced to six years in prison for
               "disturbing the public or law and order",
               and a seventh was sentenced to eight
               years. All seven were detained a month
               earlier in connection with attempts by the
               NLD to hold organizational meetings in
               various Rangoon townships. 

               According to a recently released United
               States State Department report on the
               human rights situation in Burma, the
               quality of life of the Burmese citizen during
               much of 1997 has only worsened. 

               "There continue to be credible reports,
               particularly from ethnic
               minority-dominated areas along the Thai
               border, that soldiers have committed
               serious human rights abuses, including
               rape, forced porterage, and extrajudicial
               killing. Disappearances continue, and
               members of the security forces beat and
               otherwise abuse detainees. Arbitrary
               arrests and detentions continue for
               expression of dissenting political views,"
               the report said. 

               Human rights activists say that several
               hundred, if not more, political prisoners
               remain in detention, including 29
               Members of Parliament elected in 1990.
               Prison conditions remain deplorable and
               prisoners lack food and adequate medical
               care. 

               In response to street protests by large
               groups of students in November and
               December 1996, SLORC closed the
               nation's schools and universities. While
               SLORC finally reopened primary schools
               in August 1997, universities remain closed
               to prevent another outbreak of student
               protest. 

               On the economic front too, the situation in
               this resource-rosh yet impoverished
               country deteriorated during the year. 

               While inflation has ranged between 30 to
               40 percent annually for the past several
               years, in 1997 prices of imported goods
               shot up phenomenally due to the dramatic
               fall in the value of the Burmese currency
               from around 160 kyat to the U.S. dollar at
               the beginning of the year to more than 300
               kyat by December. 

               Again while in previous years foreign
               investment -- attracted by its rich natural
               resources and cheap labor -- poured into
               Burma, the currency turmoil in South-east
               Asian economies has led to the
               cancellation of several projects. 

               Thai business groups, which form the bulk
               of the foreign investors in terms of volume
               in Burma, have stopped funding their
               projects in the country due to liquidity
               problems at home. 

               The biggest blow to the SLORC regime's
               hopes of putting the Burmese economy on
               the fast track however has been the failure
               of its "Visit Myanmar year," launched in
               late 1996. The number of actual arrivals
               during the year has been less than half the
               official target of 500,000 tourists set by the
               government. 

               This has led to the collapse of numerous
               tourism-related businesses, as well as
               widespread layoffs in large foreign-owned
               hotels that had been set up in anticipation
               of a tourism boom. 

               "The biggest challenge ahead of the
               Burmese government in the coming year
               will be to prevent the economy from
               collapsing completely due to the adverse
               economic situation throughout the
               South-east Asia region," says an ASEAN
               diplomat in Rangoon. 

               The diplomat says Burma's political
               situation has always been closely linked to
               the fate of its economy. If the downturn in
               its economic fortunes continues, then 1998
               -- which also marks a decade of the
               country's pro-democracy movement --
               could well prove to be a year of social and
               political surprises too.