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BURMA/SHAKEUP
DATE=11/17/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-38100
TITLE=BURMA / SHAKEUP
BYLINE=GARY THOMAS
DATELINE=BANGKOK
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: BURMA'S RULING GENERALS CONDUCTED A PURGE OF THEIR RANKS
THIS WEEKEND. THEY ABOLISHED THE STATE LAW AND ORDER RESTORATION
COUNCIL AND REPLACED IT WITH A NEW BODY. HOWEVER, AS VOA
CORRESPONDENT GARY THOMAS REPORTS FROM OUR SOUTHEAST ASIA BUREAU
IN BANGKOK, IT IS NOT CLEAR IF IT IS SIMPLY A COSMETIC CHANGE --
OR IF IT WILL MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE TO THE COUNTRY'S LONG-SUFFERING
PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT.
TEXT: THE SHAKEUP IN BURMA'S RULING COUNCIL WAS SURPRISING, SAY
ANALYSTS. BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER IT SIGNALS ANY REAL
CHANGE IN POLICY, OR IF IT IS SIMPLY A CHANGE OF NAME WITH SOME
NEW FACES.
NEW FACES.
ON SATURDAY, IT WAS ANNOUNCED THAT THE STATE LAW AND ORDER
RESTORATION COUNCIL HAD BEEN ABOLISHED AND REPLACED WITH A NEW
19-MEMBER BODY, THE STATE PEACE AND DEVELOPMENT COUNCIL.
BUT THERE ARE NO CIVILIANS ON THE COUNCIL. THE COUNTRY'S FOUR
MOST SENIOR GENERALS -- THAN SHWE, KHIN NYUNT, MAUNG AYE, AND TIN
OO -- REMAIN AT THE TOP OF THE HIERARCHY. THE REST OF THE NEW
RULING BODY IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF UNKNOWN FACES, MOST OF THEM
REGIONAL COMMANDERS.
THE CABINET WAS ALSO REORGANIZED, WITH THAN SHWE AS BOTH PRIME
MINISTER AND MINISTER OF DEFENSE.
A 14-MEMBER "ADVISORY COUNCIL", COMPRISED ENTIRELY OF GENERALS --
INCLUDING SOME FROM THE OLD RULING COUNCIL -- WAS ALSO NAMED.
BURMA'S RULERS MAKE THEIR DECISIONS BEHIND CLOSED DOORS
SO THE
REASON FOR THE SHAKEUP IS NOT CLEAR. BUT SOME ANALYSTS, WHO
ASKED NOT TO BE NAMED, SAY IT APPEARS THE SENIOR GENERALS WANTED
TO ELEVATE SOME YOUNGER COMMANDERS TO THE CIRCLES OF POWER.
IT MAY ALSO BE, SAY ANALYSTS, THAT THE TOP MEN WANTED TO BREAK UP
THE MINI-EMPIRES SOME GENERALS HAD BUILT UP. THE OLD COUNCIL HAD
BEEN IN PLACE SINCE 1988, AND SOME OF THE OLD GUARD ACCUMULATED
CONSIDERABLE PATRONAGE POWER WITHIN THEIR MINISTRIES IN THAT
TIME. DIPLOMATS REPORT THAT CORRUPTION IS RAMPANT, BUT
SUBSTANTIATING ACTUAL CASES IS DIFFICULT, IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE, IN A
COUNTRY WHERE EVERYTHING IS DONE IN SECRET.
HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT, IF ANY, ECONOMIC PRESSURE FROM THE WEST
MIGHT HAVE HAD ON THE DECISION TO REVAMP THE GOVERNMENT IS ALSO
UNKNOWN. THE REPRESSION AGAINST THE PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT OF
AUNG SAN SUU KYI HAS EARNED CONDEMNATION FROM WESTERN NATIONS.
THE UNITED STATES HAS LEVELED SANCTIONS AGAINST BURMA, AND THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE PUBLIC PRESSURE ON WESTERN BUSINESSES TO REFRAIN
FROM ANY DEALINGS WITH THE COUNTRY'S GENERALS.
THE GOVERNMENT HAS KEPT UP THE PRESSURE ON AUNG SAN SUU KYI AND
HER FOLLOWERS. BUT REPORTS PERSIST OF A SPLIT IN THE NOW-DEFUNCT
COUNCIL BETWEEN HARDLINERS, WHO WANT TO TOTALLY ISOLATE AUNG SAN
SUU KYI, AND MODERATES WHO BELIEVE IT IS TIME FOR A DIALOGUE WITH
THE OPPOSITION. HOWEVER, ANALYSTS IN RANGOON HASTEN TO SAY THOSE
REPORTS ARE HIGHLY SPECULATIVE.
THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNS OF SOME EASING OF THE PRESSURE, BUT EVEN
THOSE SIGNALS ARE MIXED.
THE AUTHORITIES ALLOWED AUNG SAN SUU
KYI'S NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR DEMOCRACY TO HOLD A PARTY CONGRESS IN
SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER, THE GOVERNMENT APPEARS TO MAKE UP ITS MIND
DAY TO DAY ABOUT RESTRICTING AUNG SAN SUU KYI'S MOVEMENTS.
SOMETIMES SHE IS ALLOWED OUT OF HER LAKEFRONT HOME IN RANGOON TO
MEET WITH SUPPORTERS; OTHER TIMES HER MOVEMENTS ARE BLOCKED
ALTOGETHER.
OFFICIALS OF AUNG SAN SUU KYI'S PARTY SAY THEY, TOO, ARE UNSURE
ABOUT WHAT THE CHANGES HERALD, AND THAT IS TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY
JUDGMENT ABOUT WHAT THEY MEAN. (SIGNED)
NEB/GPT/FC/KL
17-Nov-97 6:21 AM EST (1121 UTC)