AESN FACES TEST OF ITS WORTH 6/897

[moe@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]

                   Asean faces test of its worth 


By Ronnie Lim 

THE NEXT 12 months will be a real test of Asean's mettle. The grouping took
pride in its tough
decisions in KL last month but the road ahead threatens to be even rougher. 

Like it or not, Asean -- now an expanded group of nine and with hopes of
making it a full house
with Cambodia next -- must realise it needs to deliver, if it wants to be
considered a grouping with
clout. 

Sure, Kuala Lumpur last month turned out to be a dream. The Asean
Ministerial Meeting (AMM)
had successfully averted what threatened to become a nightmare. Just as it
was on the brink of
admitting Cambodia, together with Laos and Myanmar, on its 30th birthday,
bloody fighting in
Phnom Penh dampened the bash. 

In the end, Asean credibility clearly outweighed thoughts of partying.
Cambodia was told not
once, but twice -- just before the AMM, and at the AMM itself -- that its
membership would now
be postponed indefinitely. 

This is a principle which should guide its actions: that it cannot afford to
compromise its "blue-chip"
reputation by tolerating behaviour like use of force to overthrow an elected
government. 

Asean's response to the Cambodian problem won it respect. More importantly,
at the Asean
Regional Forum (ARF), following the AMM, Asean was entrusted by ARF
participants to have
first crack at mediating in the crisis. This meant others were prepared to
defer on confrontational
approaches like cutting off aid to Cambodia. But Asean needs to deliver by
this time next year
when the AMM and ARF reconvenes in Manila. By then, Cambodian elections --
scheduled for
next May -- should have been conducted, hopefully in a free and fair way,
with the coalition
government restored between Second Premier Hun Sen's CPP and the royalist
Funcinpec party. 

Last weekend, Asean resumed its long trek towards this target, when its
ministerial envoys
revisited Mr Hun Sen, who is now saying he welcomes Asean's role even as he
warns it against
interferring in Cambodia's internal affairs. 

Mindful of Asean's own policy of "non-interference", Indonesia's Foreign
Minister Ali Alatas, who
leads the mediating envoys, said it would present the Cambodian parties with
Asean suggestions
"on possible actions for a possible solution". 

There are encouraging signs that the envoys and Mr Hun Sen have agreed on
actions ranging from
a halt to the fighting to guarantees for exiled Funcinpec MPs to return
without fear of retaliation.
But it is also clear that Mr Hun Sen wants ousted First Premier Prince
Norodom Ranariddh to
keep out. He said that while the prince is free to return, he would have to
face trial for his "illegal"
negotiations with the Khmer Rouge. This is not quite at odds with Asean's
stance that it is asking
for a return of a Funcinpec-CPP coalition government, regardless of who is
in charge (that is, not
necessarily a Ranariddh-Hun Sen coalition). 

As Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said in Kuala Lumpur: "We are
watching to see
the credibility of the process in Cambodia." 

What was unsaid, but uppermost in everyone's mind, is that, based on the
outcome in Cambodia,
Asean's own credibility is also on the line. Asean will also be held
accountable -- like it or not --
for progress, or lack of it, for new member Myanmar's political reforms. US
Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright put it succinctly when she said: "Burma's future and
Asean's are now joined.
And now, more than ever, Burma's problems need an Asean solution." 

Asean, which has argued that it can do this better through its "constructive
engagement" policy
rather than through the West's strategy of isolating the military junta
there, has to be mindful of
setting its own deadlines for achieving this. 

As Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer complained of Myanmar:
"Reform has moved
at a snail's pace and we look forward to such commitments given being
actually fulfilled, not in a
decade or half decade, but in a sensible time frame." 

How can Asean achieve these objectives, even as it wrestles with the
dynamics of an expanded
grouping? For starters, the older, core Asean members must set the terms and
not let others,
especially new and would-be Asean members, decide these things. 

As one observer noted: "If you can't handle them when they are outside
(Asean), it will be
impossible once they are in." 

Asean should tell the newcomers that everyone should pull in the same
direction if they want to
reap the benefits, both economic and political, that come with a strong
grouping. This way, things
will never ever have to reach the stage where Asean is forced to say: "Shape
up or ship out." 

The writer is BT's trade and industry editor