BurmaNet News July 30, 1997

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"Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies"     
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The BurmaNet News: July 30, 1997        
Issue #785

Noted in Passing:

With or without her [Aung San Suu Kyi]  there will be democracy. 
With or without dialogue there will be democracy. 
-  SLORC Foreign Minister Ohn Gyaw
(see: THAILAND TIMES: BURMESE FM SAYS)

HEADLINES:        
========== 
THAILAND TIMES: BURMESE FM SAYS DEMOCRACY WILL EXIST 
THE NATION: EU SETS CONDITIONS FOR RANGOON
THAILAND TIMES: BURMA'S ASEAN INCLUSION IN THE HOT 
THE OTTAWA CITIZEN:  AXWORTHY CALLS FOR SANCTIONS 
THE NATION: ASEAN: A FORUM FOR GOVERNMENTS, NOT PEOPLE
AMNESTY INTL: HUMAN RIGHTS AND REGIONAL SECURITY 
FDL-AP: PRESS STATEMENT ON THE ADMISSION OF BURMA
BKK POST: SHAN BLOOD FLOWS AS TROOPS KILL 400
BKK POST: THOUSANDS OF VILLAGERS MOVED BY JUNTA
THE NATION: THE PLOT THICKENS IN RANGOON
S.H.A.N. REPORT: THE PEOPLE OF SHAN STATES JOIN THE UNPO
BKK POST: FAKE-WARY TRADERS SHUN BURMA NOTES 
BKK POST: BURMA SET TO HOLD MAJOR GEMS FAIR
INDEPENDENT REPORT: THE ROHINGYAS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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THAILAND TIMES: BURMESE FM SAYS DEMOCRACY WILL EXIST 
WITHOUT SUU KYI
July 29, 1997  (AP)

KUALA LUMPUR: Burma does not need Nobel Prize laureate Aung San
Suu Kyi to achieve democracy, the country's foreign minister said
yesterday.

"With or without her there will be democracy. With or without
dialogue there will be democracy," Foreign Minister Ohn Gyaw
said. "We arc trying to build a system not with a person but with
the people of the country."

Western nations have urged Burma's military government to begin a
dialogue with Suu Kyi, whose political party won 1990 elections
but was prevented from taking power. The government, however, has
not responded and has tightened restrictions on her party.

Burma's slow pace in democratic reforms has been severely
criticized by the United States and other nations in meetings
I over the past several days with the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations, which admitted the country as a new member last
Wednesday. 

Ohn Gyaw acknowledged that the pace may be seem slow, but said
the government must take time to achieve 'real unity' among the
country's many minorities. 
     
"This particular period ... is very important and delicate in our
contemporary history," he said in an interview with CNN television .

Western leaders who have opposed Burma's membership in ASEAN,
however, were far from satisfied with Ohn Gyaw 's explanation.

"We regard the performance (of Burma government) as completely
unacceptable," Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer told
reporters.

Australia, Canada, the United States and others said ASEAN should
now use its increased influence with Burma to encourage it to
institute democratic changes.

"We do not ask ASEAN to impose a solution on Burma from the
outside: but rather to accept that a lasting solution cannot be
imposed by force from within, either." US Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright said.

*****************************************************************

THE NATION: EU SETS CONDITIONS FOR RANGOON
July 29, 1997
Kulachada Chaipipat, The Nation

KUALA LUMPUR - European Union (EU) foreign ministers told their Association
of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) counterparts yesterday that the EU will not
allow new member Burma to join Asean-EU meetings if such talks are held in
Europe.

The message was delivered during a meeting yesterday of Asean and EU foreign
ministers in which the 15-country European bloc also made clear its
conditions for Burma's inclusion in the talks.

The EU delegation informed the nine Asean foreign ministers that it was
difficult to admit Burma into the forum at this stage and Burma's future
participation would be decided by the EU Council of Ministers and the EU
parliament, an informed source said.

Like other Asean members, Burma has to sign an Asean-EU Cooperation
Agreement before it can attend talks between the two groups.  Vietnam took
two years after its membership into Asean in 1995 to conclude the agreement
with the EU.

The EU ministers informed Asean that newcomer Laos will face no problems in
acceding to the agreement.

European President Jacques Poos said the EU would not change its position on
Burma unless five conditions were met: the release of all political
prisoners, an end to the arrest of political dissidents, the restoration of
political dialogue with pro-democracy leaders, a new democratic general
election at the earliest outset and a guarantee of freedom of speech and
movement. The EU Parliament has long imposed political sanctions against
Burma, banning EU dialogues with the Burmese junta. the State Law and Order
Restoration Council (Slorc) and visits by Burmese officials to EU member states.

Foreign Minister Prachuab Chaiyasan, who met on Sunday with European
Commission Vice President Manual Marin, said the EU Council of Ministers
will have to arrive at a majority vote on Burma's entry into the Asean-EU
agreement and later defer it for the ratification of the EU Parliament.

However, Prachuab said the EU has no objection to Burma's participation as
an observer in the upcoming Asean-EU Joint Cooperation Committee in Bangkok,
scheduled for November 17 to November 19.

Thailand will be accorded the role of co-ordinator between Asean and the EU
after Singapore in October.

Prachuab said Thailand will have to work hard with Asean and Burma to
overcome this hurdle. "There is still time to smooth out the differences
between the EU and Asean on this issue.  It took Vietnam two years to
negotiate the agreement with the EU," he said.

He said Thailand has urged that Burma receive the same treatment as that
accorded to Vietnam.

At the plenary session of the Post Ministerial Conference yesterday, the US
led other Asean dialogue countries in addressing transnational issues
including drugs and money laundering in Burma.

Burma was named by US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright as the primary
source of heroin and methamphetamines flooding Southeast Asia and the US and
a safe haven for money laundering by Burma's drug traffickers with official
encouragement.

"The primary source of these drugs is Burma, which is itself experiencing
an alarming rise in drug abuse and Aids infection. Narcotic production has
grown in Burma year after year, defying every international  to solve the
problem," she said.

She also warned that a lasting solution to the region's narcotics problem
would not be achieved without a lasting solution to Burma's political
crisis.  "This is one reason why President Clinton has barred future US
investment in the country," she said.

Thailand yesterday led Asean's explanations about efforts to fight drugs
within the grouping. According to Prachuab, Asean urged Western countries to
curb the demand in their respective countries and control the production of
chemical agents, as well as equipment, used in the manufacture of heroin.

"Pure opium would not produce a harmful  effect unless it was transformed
into heroin  through scientific methods exported by  the West," Prachuab said.

Meanwhile, one of Ireland's largest retail chains promised to end links with
Burma if allegations that it is selling clothes produced in a state-run
factory outside Rangoon turn out to be true.

A spokesman for Dunnes said the company had no direct dealings with Burma,
and no knowledge of the political situation there. He said one of Dunnes'
suppliers, a UK-based company called Unimix, was known to have a share in a
joint venture in Burma.

If the allegations were proved to be correct, Dunnes would immediately case
trading with the factory, the spokesman said.

******************************************************

THAILAND TIMES: BURMA'S ASEAN INCLUSION IN THE HOT 
SEAT AGAIN
July 29, 1997 (AFP)

KUALA LUMPUR: Burma faced new attacks yesterday over its human
rights record and alleged links to drug trafficking as ASEAN held
annual talks 4 with international powers.

For the second straight day, US Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright bluntly accused Burma's ruling junta of complicity in
the drugs trade and laundering its profits.

"Drug traffickers who once spent their days leading mule trains
down jungle tracks are now leading lights in Burma's new market
economy and leading figures in its new political order," Albright said.

She was apparently referring to former opium warlord Khun Sa.
among others. Khun Sa "retired" from his drug empire in Burma's
northeast Shan State and is now reported to be involved in
legitimate businesses operating from Rangoon.

Both of Albright's attacks have been in the presence of Burma's
foreign minister, Ohn Gyaw.

Over the two days, Australia, Canada and the European Union also
launched assaults on Rangoon with Canadian Foreign Minister Lloyd
Axworthy yesterday assailing the junta's "policies of repression."

Burma, which joined the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) last week had hoped to meet polite diplomatic acceptance
here, but was instead "being forced to listen to some uncomfortable 
truths," a delegate said.

An ASEAN official said Southeast Asian states felt it was useful
for Burma to be confronted with such criticism. "In some ways we
are exposing Myanmar to feel the whole brunt of international
opprobrium," he remarked.

Far from springing to Burma's defense, its ASEAN partners sat
back quietly and "allowed us to do their dirty work, " a Western
official commented.

Japanese Foreign Minister Yukihiko Ikeda's statement yesterday
was more typical of the Asian approach to Burma and its new ASEAN
membership.

"I hope that welcoming new members into the fold will not stifle
the beneficial contributions that ASEAN has made to the
development and stability of the Asia-Pacific region, but will
further bolster them," he said.

"I am confident that ASEAN membership will have a constructive
impact on the two countries which have just  joined the
organization," Ikeda added, referring to Burma and Laos.

Albright yesterday called for joint action to prevent the
spillover of criminal activities from Burma.

"With economies whose growth often outpaces government efforts at
regulation, ASEAN nations are vulnerable to criminals looking for
a place to operate, or a place to hide.

"Because international criminals respect no law or border,
it is in every nation's interest to fight them together," she warned.

"We are increasingly concerned that Burma's drug traffickers,
with official encouragement, are laundering their profits through
Burmese banks and companies, some of which are joint ventures
with foreign businesses.

"Drug money has become so pervasive in Burma that it taints
legitimate investment and threatens the region as a whole," Albright said.

This was "another reminder that it will be hard to do normal business in 
Burma until a climate of law is restored to that country," she said.

President Bill Clinton has banned future US investment in Burma
in a bid to pressure the ruling junta to undertake reforms.

***************************************************************** 

THE OTTAWA CITIZEN:  AXWORTHY CALLS FOR SANCTIONS 
AGAINST BURMA-MEETING PRODUCES NO AGREEMENT ON
HUMAN RIGHTS COMPLAINTS
July 29, 1997 (abridged)
by Jonathan Manthorpe

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia - Foreign Minister Lloyd Axworthy will recommend to
cabinet that economic sanctions be imposed on Burma because of the military
regime's stance on political and human rights.

After a meeting with Burmese Foreign Minister U Ohn Gyaw today, Mr. Axworthy
said: "I'm going to report that they have not responded in any way" to
pressure to ease restrictions.

Mr. Axworthy produced a list of eight actions Canada wanted the military
regime to take to improve human rights in the Southeast Asian country.

The list includes dialogue with the National League for Democracy, led by
Nobel Peace Prize winner, Aung San Suu Kyi, the release of political
prisoners and a timetable for constitutional change.

Canada has relatively little trade with Burma, about $15 million annually,
but Mr. Axworthy said Burma's State Law and Order Restoration Council is
trying to encourage new investment from Canadian mining and petroleum
industry-companies.

"There is a point when the international community has to put its markers
down. If the Burmese government is to give better economic conditions for
their people, then there is reciprocity in that. Most countries recognize
that, clearly the Burmese don't."

He has refused to detail the sanctions but said they would affect
investment, trade and financing with Burma.

Mr. Axworthy said the only glimmer he saw during his one-hour meeting with
his Burmese counterpart was in the area of illegal drugs control.  Burma is
one of the world's largest producers of heroin, much of which is trafficked
through Canada.

Mr. U Ohn (sic) indicated that a United Nations Drug Control Program may be
allowed to operate effectively in Burma and Mr. Axworthy said Canada may
contribute to that program.

Mr. Axworthy went to the meeting with few expectations that the Burmese
junta would be prepared to drop its refusal to negotiate with the NLD which
won 1990 elections, but which has been barred from taking power. 

"I raised the question with him whether they were prepared to get involved
in the international community through contact groups - such things as UN
commission on human rights. The answer was clearly no. They clearly would
not welcome any international representatives."

Burma's regime has been condemned by a number of countries and international
human rights organizations for detaining political opponents without trial,
torture and using slave labour. 

********************************************************

THE NATION: ASEAN: A FORUM FOR GOVERNMENTS, NOT PEOPLE
July 29, 1997 (Editorial)  (abridged)

In exerting its influence and playing a mediating role in the renewed
Cambodian conflict, Asean doesn't prove it really cares. On the contrary,
what appears to be a display of the regional group's concern, sympathy and
willingness to help, underlies one of its flawed characteristics - that
Asean is an elite convergence of heads of governments and that people don't
matter much, if at all.

The damning proof of this is Burma. The decades-long suffering of citizens of
that cursed country hasn't moved Asean beyond the point of "constructive
engagement" which has never changed a thing. And last week, the grouping
flushed its strongest bargaining tool down the drain by embracing the
notorious Slorc into its fold.

In Burma's case, Slorc's brutality and suppression have become a status quo.
No businesses will be much affected if a few hundred more are rounded up for
anti-government activities or a dozen more die in prisons.  No serious border 
problems have emerged from Slorc's iron-fist rule.

There is room for improvement as far as the so-called spirit of Asean is
concerned.  The grouping has strictly limited itself to a
government-to-government organisation, with very little participation,
feedback, or input from the people.  It is an association of governments, by
governments and for governments.  In Asean's point of view, the term
"neighbouring country" seems to mean neighbouring government, not
neighbouring people.

******************************************************

AMNESTY INTL: HUMAN RIGHTS AND REGIONAL SECURITY 
- A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM
July 26, 1997  (excerpts)

Statement by Rory Mungoven, Asia-Pacific Program Director, Amnesty
International in Kuala Lumpur, 26 July 1997

Human rights and regional security issues are inextricably linked.  The
security of nation states begins with the security of the civil society of 
which they are composed.  The security problems that beset the region 
- notably in Cambodia, North Korea,  East Timor, Bougainville and
Myanmar - are the projected shadow of human rights violations.

Far from being an "internal affair", human rights issues directly engage
the international responsibilities and national interests of other states.  
They belong squarely on the agenda of regional security discussions such 
as those in Kuala Lumpur this week.

Conflicts cannot be resolved, confidence cannot be built and multilateral 
cooperation cannot be strengthened unless regional security issues are 
addressed at their root cause - the violation of human rights.  Poor
security in any one country in the region has direct consequences for the
Asia-Pacific region as a whole; the long history of refugee flows in Southeast 
Asia, currently continuing from Myanmar, East Timor and now again 
Cambodia,  is a sad illustration of this point.

Human rights considerations must be at the heart of confidence building 
and preventive diplomacy if regional security cooperation is to meet the 
objective of the ARF and become more comprehensive and effective.  Ensuring 
respect for humanitarian law and principles should be a basic first step in 
managing any conflict.  Countries in the region which are called upon to
provide safe haven to refugees should abide by international standards for
their protection.  Encouraging greater respect for human rights in neighbouring 
countries is the best way of stemming refugee flows.  Adherence to
international 
human rights standards should be an integral part of promoting stable 
government and the rule of law.

Now that ASEAN has admitted Myanmar as a member state, it is to be hoped 
that a renewed effort will be made to push the Myanmar authorities to initiate 
dialogue with opposition and ethnic groups, and bring an immediate halt to
the ongoing human rights violations committed by the armed forces, before
that country too descends further into conflict and chaos.

****************************************************************

FDL-AP: PRESS STATEMENT ON THE ADMISSION OF BURMA TO 
THE ASEAN AND RECENT CAMBODIAN CRISIS  
July 24, 1997  (abridged)

1. 	The Forum of Democratic Leaders in the Asia-Pacific (FDL-AP) expresses
our deepest concern that on the 23rd of July, ASEAN  has allowed Burma to
join as a full member  in spite of strong international opposition.

2. 	It is widely known that SLORC, the Burmese military junta, lacks
legitimacy as a constitutional government  as it  forcefully seized power and
has continuously and ruthlessly violated the human rights of the Burmese
people.  SLORC continues to brutally oppress the Burmese democratic forces,
forcing children to labor, and enforcing its relocation policy against the
will of ethnic nationals.  The ASEAN led Constructive Engagement  has also
been a target for harsh world criticism from the view point that the Burmese
membership will only strengthen the military dictatorship of SLORC and their
small number of followers while producing  no positive effect on the lagging
Burmese economy.  

3.	For these reasons, the FDL-AP has made its all-out effort to elucidate the
sensitive pertinence  of the Burmese entry into ASEAN upon world human rights
and democracy and to increase awareness of this  matter.  The FDL-AP has sent
letters, several times, under the signature of Dr. Kim Dae-jung, Resident
Co-President of the FDL-AP, to the President of the United States,  the Prime
Minister of Japan, and the heads of the ASEAN States including the ASEAN
foreign ministers to ask for international support  to protest against
 SLORC's admission to  ASEAN.  The FDL-AP conducted letter campaigns in which
we urged our  members to  support our efforts against SLORC's admission to
 ASEAN, hence tarnishing its reputable name.      

4. 	The recent Cambodian internal turmoil is an example which clearly shows
the negative impacts on human rights and stability in the region when power
is seized  undemocratically  through  violence.  

5.	The FDL-AP believes that ASEAN should have given reconsideration to the
admission of Burma along with Cambodia.  Because democracy and human rights
in Burma is also severely threatened under the military dictatorship.  In
this regard, it is indeed unfortunate that  ASEAN forced its decision to
accept Burma as a new member.  Therefore, ASEAN should be clearly aware of
its responsibility for the future undemocratic practices and human right
violations 
by SLORC and should upkeep its duty to improve such conditions.  ASEAN 
also should not forget that it will be its vital and utmost important
mission to 
persuade SLORC to actively cooperate for the democratization of Burma.  

	Forum of Democratic Leaders in the Asia-Pacific (FDL-AP) 

***********************************************************

BKK POST: SHAN BLOOD FLOWS AS TROOPS KILL 400
July 28, 1997
(from SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST)

'NO STOPPING' SOLDIERS ON NEW MURDER SPREE

Burmese soldiers have murdered about 400 villagers since the
middle of June as the junta steps up its war in the Shan state,
aid workers and rebels said on Saturday.

The army appears to have escalated-its killing in the northeast
corner of the country following the massacre of about 25 ethnic
Burmese on June 13.

Troops who habitually killed anyone they found in the open
countryside have indulged in an orgy of violence that has left
many scores of bodies -some beheaded -in lonely country lanes,
according to reports gathered by the Shan Human Rights Foundation. 
     
"They are not stopping now - just killing, killing, killing,"
said a member of the foundation.

"We conservatively reckon that at least 400 people have been
killed since the middle of last month."

Villagers who have fled across the border into northern Thailand
have been telling refugee workers for 18 months how a low-key
rebellion by a group called the Shan United Revolutionary Army
has provoked a brutal response.

To try to break the rebellion, the army has smashed many villages
in the central Shan state, forcing the inhabitants to move to
designated areas at short notice.

Anyone found outside the new townships can be shot on sight. This
frequently proves a disaster for the many families that, for fear
of starvation, must forage for food in the forest or try to
harvest rice on their old land.

Refugees routinely tell stories of soldiers who appear to kill so
that they can steal cattle or bicycles, of confiscated land sold
to Chinese or Burmese settlers and of gang rapes.

But the ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council's own
terror may be feeding their hatred and anger.

When an unidentified group of rebels forced about 25 ethnic
Burmese from the central plains off buses and later executed
them, the junta's soldiers started killing with even less compunction.

Earlier this month drivers travelling along roads in the area of
Kho Lam and Kunhing towns reported seeing the bodies of 26 and 17
Shan villagers -all beheaded.

The already-severe restrictions on movement have became much
stricter, forcing more and more villagers to run the risk of
being killed in a desperate search for food.

In June, 26 villagers in the Kunhing area got permission to
gather rice from their old village, but were caught on their
return by soldiers who tied them up and shot them without explanation. .

Around the same time, two more groups of food gatherers,
totalling 32 people, were promptly killed when discovered by soldiers.

In the Kho Lam area, dried beef jerky made by soldiers from the
hundreds of stolen cattle has become so common that it sells for
only a fraction of what it fetches elsewhere.

Fishermen, honey gatherers, bamboo cutters have been killed. A
Shan youth who threw water at a soldier's girlfriend during the
annual water festival was clubbed to death.

And a family of eight sheltering from a junta mortar attack in
the basement of a house died when soldiers dropped grenades
through the window.

"They don't trust any of our people so their solution is to clear
the area and they don't seem to care how they do it." said' one
Shan social worker.

******************************************************

BKK POST: THOUSANDS OF VILLAGERS MOVED BY JUNTA
July 28, 1997
by Cheewin Sattha in Mae Hong Son

So far over 25,000 Shan and Karen villagers from 160 villages have been 
forcibly relocated to sites in the central Shan State as part of the Burmese 
government's strategy to prevent villagers from providing support to 
resistance armies, a border source said yesterday.

Since last April, Burma's ruling State Law and Order .
Restoration Council (Slorc) has launched one of its largest
relocation programmes ever within the central Shan State.

Villagers in Shan and Kayah states opposite Thailand's Mae Hong
Son were given five days to move to Lai Kha district in the Doi
Leam province of Shan State. Burmese soldiers threatened to shoot
anyone who did not comply with the order.         

In the recent relocation, 1,750 villagers from 11 border villages
were moved to Lai Kha during July 8-12, making the number of
relocated villagers rise to 25,000, said the source.

The relocation sites were merely empty areas along roads. The
villagers had to build makeshift huts for shelters. They were
left without any help from the Slorc. Many had reportedly
suffered from malnourishment and illnesses.

The relocation was part of the so called :Four Cuts Operation" -
the goal being to cut off food, funds, intelligence and recruits-
provided by local villagers to resistance groups, particularly
the Shan United Revolutionary Army (SURA), which was fighting
Burma's ruling junta.

According to the source, the SURA and other minority groups have
strongly condemned the Burmese government for violating human
rights. They also disagreed with Asean's decision to admit Burma
into its group.

********************************************************

THE NATION: THE PLOT THICKENS IN RANGOON
July 29, 1997

Military intelligence chief Khin Nyunt has profited from the attempted
assassination of his rival, Tin Oo, in the ongoing battle within the
faction-ridden Slorc, reports Chao-Tzang Yawnghwe.

The jockeying for the political high ground in the "war of succession" is
going Gen Khin Nyunt's way. It seems the military intelligence chief and
first secretary of the State Law and Order Restoration Council (Slorc) is
the smartest of the lot, and it is likely that he will - if he plays his
cards right - leave his rivals way behind.

The recent round of applause from a significant number of non Burman
"ceasefire" armies, lauding Khin Nyunt's press briefing in connection with
the explosion at Second Secretary Tin Oo's house which killed his daughter,
must be seen as a brilliant stroke of a master strategist.

Khin Nyunt has been able to make use of the bomb explosion aimed at his
rival Tin Oo (and an ally of Deputy Chairman Maung Aye), to his advantage -
killing several birds with one stone, so to speak.

First, he has been able to deflect blame away from himself for the
explosion; second, blame the bombing on the opposition National League for
Democracy, or its external supporters - the Americans m particular; third,
compel Tin Oo and Maung Aye to accept his explanation (no matter how
unconvincing); and lastly, show his rivals that he has the backing of
"ceasefire armies, that is, the armed non-Burman forces which together
represents a quite formidable fighting force.

The beauty of Khin Nyunt's move is that it has put his rivals in a tight
spot, forcing them to choose between two untenable alternatives: either to
accept his explanation (hence absolving him or his supporters from blame),
or to strike back hastily, an action which has little chance of success
given their lack of preparation.  

Intra-military politics, like party politics, involves jockeying for power
between factions - but it is more dangerous in the military since the
factions involved are all armed.  The endorsement of non-Burman "ceasefire"
armies of Khin Nyunt's press briefing is particularly significant. It
represents Khin Nyunt's skill as a politician - a: skill which most Slorc
generals, particularly Maung Aye - are hugely deficient in. His stamping
upon the Kawthoolei (Karen) flag a few months ago has shown him up as a
political novice.

According to sources in Shan state, Khin Nyunt has made himself very
accessible to leaders of the 'ceasefire' armies.  It is reported former Shan
State Army leaders and Kanyod, who defected from Khun Sa, are able to
personally meet Khin Nyunt whenever they request a meeting.

He has also showered them with business licences, concessions, even funds.
As a result, almost all leaders of "ceasefire" armies have become Khin
Nyunt's clients.  Their endorsement of Khin Nyunt's move to deflect blame
for the bombing from his faction or allies can be seen in part as a
repayment on their part for Khin Nyunt's lucrative patronage and protection.

Also, sources close to "ceasefire" leaders have explained to their contacts
in Thailand - to mollify Karen guerrilla leader Gen Bo Mya and other
pro-democratic forces that their endorsement of Khin Nyunt is a tactical
move, and that they are not in the slightest taken in by Khin Nyunt's
explanation or version of the explosion.

Ceasefire leaders are apparently aware of the battle of succession being
waged, overtly for now, in Rangoon. Khin Nyunt is viewed by the non-Burman
military leader's as being the most "liberal," comparatively speaking, and
the most politically sophisticated.  Most of them - except Khun Sa, the
former Shan heroin kingpin - distrust Maung Aye, a rising star and believed
to be Khin Nyunt's main rival and potential nemesis.

It is widely believed that Khun Sa is Maung Aye's man, since it was Maung
Aye, who brought Khun Sa "into the legal fold". It is widely known among the
Shans that Maung Aye, while stationed in Kengtung, established close contact
with businessmen closely linked to Khun Sa. (Khun Sa has, so far, not
endorsed Khin Nyunt's press briefing.)

Many Burmese observers abroad, as well some American diplomats believe that
although Ne Win has allegedly endorsed Maung Aye as No 1, slated to replace
Gen Than Shwe as the military strongman, it is unlikely that the latter will
step down any time soon.

Than Shwe is unambitious and would personally not mind stepping down.
However, some military factions - especially intelligence factions - are
reportedly nervous about Maung Aye becoming the head of Slorc. It is
believed in those circles that Maung Aye is too ambitious and inflexible. As
such, the consensus among observers of Rangoon politics is that Than Shwe
will not step down as yet - he will be prevented from doing so by his
supporters.  Than Shwe's supporters and Khin Nyunt's, especially those in
the intelligence service, are now believed to be drawing closer in
preparation for a showdown soon, or when Ne Win dies. It is believed Than
Shwe will step down only after the alliance between Khin Nyunt and his
supporters is well-established and/or it is strong enough to meet challenges
from within.

Although many observers are of the opinion that there will be a bloody
showdown shortly after Ne Win dies - if not sooner - there is a case to be
made that such a bloody scenario might be averted. Burmese culture is such
that those who are "inferior" always submit to those they regard as "superior".

Moreover, as a veteran analyst of the Burmese military maintains, Burman
military officers are generally aggressive only toward those who are
unarmed. They will more likely submit to an armed rival if they judge him to
be strong or "superior".  

It seems that Khin Nyunt is apparently well aware of this Burman trait, and
has made the move - successfully, it seems - to occupy the political high
ground by establishing his "superiority".  Much hinges on whether or not Tin
Oo and Maung Aye buy Khin Nyunt's explanation for the bomb explosion.

If they accept Khin Nyunt's explanations or are compelled to do so
(regardless of its accuracy or validity), it is likely that military
factions which had hitherto supported Maung Aye and Tin Oo will interpret
this as a sign of Khin Nyunt "superiority" over Maung Aye. It is likely,
therefore, that they will rush to join Khin Nyunt's bandwagon. Thus, a
bloody showdown will probably by averted.

As the situation stands, it would seem that Khin Nyunt's rivals have been
outflanked. Their inability to "avenge" the death of Tin Oo's daughter and
their acceptance of Khin Nyunt's rather unconvincing explanation for the
bombing at Tin Oo's house, indicate that their position is not as strong as
most people thought it was. 

At any rate, their acceptance of Khin Nyunt's explanation shows how skilled
Khin Nyunt is at confronting his opponents and rivals.

Chao-Tzang Yawnghwe is son of the late Sao Shwe Thaike, Burma's first
independent President.

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S.H.A.N. REPORT: THE PEOPLE OF SHAN STATES JOIN THE UNPO
July 28, 1997  (Shan Herald Agency for News)

        Representatives of the Shan States led by Sai Myo Win attended the
General Assembly of the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization --
known as the Parallel United Nations -- held in Estonia 14 - 23 July. Two
other members of the delegation were Sao Surnganfah Zarmka and Sao
Orngserk.
        The Mon People and the Shan States together with four other Peoples
were formally accepted at the Assembly. The Karenni State, already a member
nation, also attended.
        On 15 July, Sai Myo Win delivered a speech which touched the
subject of the Right of Self-Determination regarding the international
community. "States that the main problem of the unrepresented nations is
the reluctance of the international community to recognize the rights to
self-determination, especially within the context of non-state nations. The
Burmese military coup and subsequent abolition of the Constitution of the
Union of Burma (1997) ... frees the Shan people from contractual obligating
to that union. Comments that the nature of the conflict within the Shan
States has changed from an internal to an international crisis. Asks for
support and guidance in gaining international attention to the situation
within the Shan States," reported the UNPO.
        On 19 July, Resolution on the Military Occupation and Colonization
of the Shan States by the Burmese Military Regime was read and adopted by
the Assembly. "We agreed upon our Right to Self-Determination as evidenced
by the historic Panglong Agreement signed in 1947, withdrawal of the
occupation Burmese troops, to immediately cease the exploitation of our
natural resources and our ownership of the land we inhabited since time
immemorial," reports Sai Myo Win from Estonia.
        Good relation with all the Asian and Pacific region members were
also reported to have been established there.

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BKK POST: FAKE-WARY TRADERS SHUN BURMA NOTES
July 29, 1997
MAE HONG SON

Many businesses in Mae Hong Son are refusing to accept Burmese
kyat notes because there are so many fake kyats In circulation.
Somchart Sitthisantikul, former chairman of the Mae Hong Son
Chamber of Commerce, said the traders were refusing to accept
notes after learning that the Burmese authorities were going to
demonetise 500 kyat notes marked with the serial letters AL and AM.

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BKK POST: BURMA SET TO HOLD MAJOR GEMS FAIR
July 29, 1997

TTF (Rangoon) Co, a subsidiary of Bangkok-based TTF International
Go, has won approval from the Burmese government to hold Yangon
Gems '97, an international fair to promote the country's gems and
jewellery industry.

Managing director Anan Prasertsiddhi said the fair, to be held at Traders 
Hotel in Rangoon on September 10-14, would give local producers and 
traders a chance to meet directly with foreign buyers, champion free trade 
and promote tourism.  The fair is expected to attract some 60 Burmese 
companies and 5,000 industry people from around the world.

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INDEPENDENT REPORT: THE ROHINGYAS
July 29, 1997

      The term Rohingya is derived from the word "Rohai or Roshangee", a
terminology perverted to Rohingya.  Rohai and Roshangee are terms
denoting the Muslim people inhabiting in the old Arakan (
Rohang/Roshang/Roang).  Among the Muslim Population of Chittagong (
Bangladesh) two distinct ethnic characters are found; one is known as
Chatganiya and the other Rohai.  Although professing the same religion
they have different cultural habits. In fact the Rohais of Chittagong
today are those Muslim people who fled Arakan (Rohang) as a result of
Burman atrocities after the country was occupied in 1784 C.E. As many as
50% of the total population of Chittagong district are Rohais who trace
their ancestral origin to Arakan. The Rohingyas trace their origin to
Arabs, Moors, Turks, Persians, Moghuls, Patthans and Banglees. A British
army officer who served in the Arakan front during Second Great War
remarked about the ethnic character of the Arakan Muslims as follow: 
"and to look at, they are quite unlike any other products of India or
Burma that I have seen.  They resemble the Arab in name, in dress and in
habit.  The women and more particularly the young girls, have a
distinctive Arab touch about them (Burmese Outpost by Anthony Irwin,
p.22)".
     The development of the Rohingya language is most curious. It is an
admixture of different language developed during a course of more than
one thousand years.  It is worthwhile to mention herein that the
official language of Arakan had been Persian since the days of early
Mrauk-U kings till 1845, 22 years further beyond the conquest of Arakan
by the Britishers. During Mrauk-U period contact with Bengal was so
cordial and deep that Bengali literature had flourished in the court of
Arakan. Many famous Muslim court poets who served the Kings of Arakan
like Shah Alawal, Dualat Qazi, Magan Siddiqui etc. wrote in Persian and
Arabic or in the mix language, Rohingya, which they developed among
themselves and which was a mixture of Bengali, Persian, Arabic, and
Arakanese (Rakhine). Although the Rohingya language was widespread
during the era of Arakan Kings, today its existence as a written
language has diminished as it was mainly destroyed by the invaders in
1784 and not preserved well by the subsequent colonialist.

More information contact;
P.O BOX 795
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH

Rohingyas refugees' demands:  Rangoon government has to issue
them with formal documents of nationality, restored democracy, handed
power to the National League for Democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and
guaranteed human rights.

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