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AAP_20.7.97:ASEAN AND POSSIBLE POLI



Subject: AAP_20.7.97:ASEAN AND POSSIBLE POLICY SHIFT

ASIA: POSSIBLE SHIFT IN ASEAN APPROACH TO PROBLEMS
CAMBODIA ASEAN (AAP NEWS ANALYSIS)
	   JAKARTA, July 20 AAP - The Cambodian crisis could point to a 
radical shift in the powerful Association of South East Asian 
Nations (ASEAN) due to hold major talks this week - including 
related talks with Australia.
	   Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer is due in Malaysia 
late this week for the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), a fledgling 
security body, and for a series of bilateral meetings.
	   At the Kuala Lumpur meeting, Mr Downer might find a significant 
shift taking place in ASEAN's approach to tackling political and 
security problems in the region.
	   At least some in ASEAN want to take a bold new interventionist 
role when member countries face internal strife, a big shift from a 
strict policy of non-interference adopted for years.
	   "The madness in Cambodia calls for a reconsideration of the way 
South-East Asia handles its interstate engagements," wrote 
Malaysia's acting Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in Newsweek magazine 
last week.
	   (Cambodia's Second Prime Minister Hun Sen earlier this month 
used military force to oust First Prime Minister Prince Norodom 
Ranariddh, elected in 1993 United Nations sponsored elections).
	   "(ASEAN) must now move from being a largely reactive 
organisation to one that is proactive.
	   "We need to 'intervene' before simmering problems erupt into 
full-blown crises, like the one now unfolding in Cambodia."
	   "Perhaps it is now appropriate for ASEAN to seriously consider 
the idea of 'constructive interventions'."
	   It's hard to imagine Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahatir Mohammad, 
on extended leave, saying the same thing. Mahatir, along with 
Indonesia's President Suharto, are ASEAN's elder statesmen.
	   ASEAN has long talked about 'constructive engagement' and stuck 
rigidly to the view that it's not appropriate to intervene in the 
domestic affairs of a member country - certainly not in public 
view.
	   For example, on Burma's bad record on human rights and lack of 
democracy, ASEAN has referred to engaging the regime in trade, and 
thereby opening the country to greater regional interaction.
	   The argument runs that greater interaction will lead to a 
greater flow of ideas, and that for example, the more democratic 
style of government in neighbouring Thailand might wash across the 
border.
	   Anwar, widely seen as Malaysia's Prime Minister in waiting, is 
seen as part of a younger, liberal-thinking group of regional 
leaders though some wonder if words will translate to action.
	   But others, like Indonesia's long-time Foreign Minister Ali 
Alatas insist there has been no change in ASEAN's approach.
	   In Bangkok last week, Mr Alatas said ASEAN had taken a role in 
talks with Hun Sen only after it had effectively been invited to do 
so by Cambodia's head of state, figurehead King Norodom Sihanouk.
	   Before Mr Downer arrives, ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet next 
week, when Cambodia's political turmoil could overshadow the 
admission of Burma and Laos as new members of ASEAN.
	   ASEAN currently groups Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, The 
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
	   This year marks ASEAN's 30th anniversary, and members had been 
keen to celebrate by fulfilling the vision of the group's founding 
fathers by admitting Cambodia, Burma and Laos.
	   That would have meant that all of South-East Asia would be 
covered by ASEAN, except arguably for the internationally disputed 
territory of East Timor.
	   But ASEAN has taken the unusual step of deferring Cambodia's 
entry indefinitely in the wake of the use of military force by Hun 
Sen to oust Ranariddh then round up his political supporters.
	   Due to Cambodia, Burma has recently managed to escape major 
spotlight, despite its continued refusal to recognise the 
democratic election of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.
	   The small land-locked nation of Laos, along with Cambodia and 
Vietnam, a part of the former French colonial Indochina, will 
probably enter ASEAN almost unnoticed.
	   Some observers have posed the question: how will the so-called 
ASEAN model of authoritarian military-based rule be looking in say 
five years?
	   Potentially, Mr Suharto may have been replaced, possibly by a 
more democratic form of government, Mr Anwar may be Malaysian PM 
and The Philippines may have consolidated its democratic 
traditions.
	   Elsewhere, Thailand with a functioning albeit corrupt democracy 
appears less likely to see another military coup unless there is a 
dispute over the succession after the present king.
	   AAP gf/cmw/de