Burma Related News From Publication

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Subject: Burma Related News From Publications

Contents
(1) Aung Shwe's Letters
(2) Conflict of Interests
Asean's stance on Cambodia sparks debate on Burma
(3) Kyat Keels
(4) THAILAND 
Power Plan with Burma



(From Far Eastern Economic Review)
BURMA 
Aung Shwe's Letters 
Exiled Burmese dissidents based in Thailand released a book of letters 
on July 15 written by opposition National League for Democracy Chairman 
Aung Shwe to the ruling military junta between December 1995 and March 
1997. The 33 letters collected in Letters to a Dictator urge reform and 
criticize human-rights abuses. They were smuggled out of Burma by the 
All Burma Students Democratic Front.

Conflict of Interests
Asean's stance on Cambodia sparks debate on Burma

------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Murray Hiebert in Kuala Lumpur and Michael Vatikiotis in Bangkok

------------------------------------------------------------------------
July 24, 1997
F or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the decision to 
postpone the induction of Cambodia into the regional grouping in late 
July was a tough call. Now it faces an even more daunting challenge: 
pressing for a negotiated settlement to the conflict brought on by the 
ouster of Prince Norodom Ranariddh by his rival, Hun Sen. 

What is more, the Cambodia fracas has reopened the debate within 
foreign-policy circles about the wisdom of admitting Burma into Asean. 
Human-rights groups wasted no time accusing Asean of applying double 
standards. "When it is convenient, as in the case of Cambodia, Asean is 
prepared to interfere in the affairs of another country," the Burma 
Solidarity Group Malaysia declared in a statement. "When it is not 
convenient, as in the case of Burma . . . Asean does nothing to 
embarrass or jeopardize the illegal and illegitimate regime there." 

The paradox can't have been lost on Asean foreign ministers, who debated 
for six hours at a special meeting in Kuala Lumpur on July 10, before 
drafting a five-sentence statement on Cambodia. The foreign ministers 
decided to signal their disapproval towards Hun Sen, despite the group's 
declared policy of noninterference in the internal affairs of other 
countries. Malaysian Foreign Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said Asean 
justified its action "in light of the unfortunate circumstances which 
have resulted from the use of force." 

But the violent turn of events in Cambodia could not have come at a more 
awkward time for Asean. At the end of May, Asean foreign ministers 
resolved to admit Cambodia, along with Burma and Laos, as full-fledged 
members. Now, instead of welcoming a new era of harmony in Southeast 
Asia on the association's 30th anniversary, foreign ministers meeting in 
Kuala Lumpur on July 23 will be treating an old wound that has suddenly 
reopened. 

Diplomats say Cambodia will dominate the agenda during the foreign 
ministers' meeting and will be a major item in the 21-member Asean 
Regional Forum talks which follow. Already, two members of the forum, 
Japan and the United States, have suspended aid to Cambodia, and a 
third, Australia, has said it is considering such a move. These 
countries are likely to use the instability in Cambodia to bolster their 
argument that the grouping is expanding too fast. 

Meanwhile, Asean's credibility as a security body is also on the line. 
Caught between a desire to expand its security function and a deep 
aversion to interfering in members' domestic affairs, the grouping runs 
the risk of exposing itself to more ridicule as a toothless talk shop. 

Still, Southeast Asian strategic experts who support Asean's decision on 
Cambodia argue that unique circumstances require unique responses. M. 
Rajaratnam of the Institute of Policy Studies in Kuala Lumpur says that 
it's too late for diplomatic niceties. "Cambodia is a clear case of a 
state so weak that if left alone it could collapse. We can no longer 
sweep the problem under the carpet," Rajaratnam says. 

"If Asean had supported Hun Sen that would have been interference," 
argues Abdul Razak Baginda, head of the Malaysian Strategic Research 
Centre. "If it had supported Ranariddh that would have been 
interference. But playing a mediating role isn't interference. That's 
different than taking sides." 

How does the grouping justify admitting Burma while excluding Cambodia, 
when the leaders of both regimes seized power at the barrel of a gun? 
"In Cambodia, Asean was party to the elections. It was seen as a 
guarantor, so it had no choice but to take a stand," says Razak. 

Others say Asean should have taken the chance to delay Burma's 
membership as well. "It was an opportunity to review the whole issue of 
expansion of Asean," says Carolina Hernandez at the Institute of 
Strategic and Development Studies in Manila. 

For now, however, Asean's focus is on Cambodia. The grouping has tried 
to avoid alienating Hun Sen or taking steps that could push Cambodia 
back into civil war. It has sought to keep communication channels open 
to the coup leader by refraining from declaring his government illegal 
and refusing to support Ranariddh's appeal for the suspension of foreign 
aid to Phnom Penh. 

As a condition for membership, Asean is demanding that Cambodia maintain 
the power-sharing arrangement reached following United 
Nations-supervised elections in 1993. But it doesn't insist that 
Ranariddh resume his role as co-prime minister and head of the royalist 
Funcinpec party. "We want to see the coalition government in place, the 
National Assembly not dissolved and the constitution upheld in 
accordance with the Paris Peace Accord on Cambodia," Badawi told 
journalists. 

Asean seems to recognize that it would be difficult for Ranariddh, the 
son of Cambodia's head of state, King Sihanouk, to return to his 
position in Phnom Penh. "For the time being, we regard Ranariddh as 
co-premier of Cambodia," Badawi said, but he left open the possibility 
that Ranariddh's party could elect a new leader. "The important thing is 
that Funcinpec should be in a position to decide who is best to 
represent them as first prime minister," the Malaysian foreign minister 
said. 

For his part, Hun Sen advised Asean to stay out of Cambodia's affairs. 
"If Cambodia sees Asean interfering in its internal affairs, we will 
decide not to join," he told journalists in Phnom Penh. "We survived a 
long time without membership" in Asean. 

Observers doubt that Asean's policy will reduce Hun Sen's resolve to 
maintain his grip on power. The decision to postpone Cambodia's Asean 
membership "creates a real disappointment for Hun Sen," says Raoul 
Jennar, a historian of Cambodian affairs living in Phnom Penh. "But it's 
not enough for him to change his policy." 

"Asean can huff and puff but it lacks the power and will not do much 
other than to legitimize Hun Sen's rule once it is stabilized," adds 
Michael Leifer, a Southeast Asia specialist at the London School of 
Economics and Political Science. 

But some analysts believe that international isolation, maintained over 
an extended period, could put pressure on Hun Sen to reconsider. "In the 
short run, no, Asean won't have much influence on Hun Sen," says Sorpong 
Peou of Singapore's Institute for Southeast Asian Studies. "But in the 
medium term there will be frustration within his own party," Sorpong, 
who grew up in Cambodia, says of the Cambodian People's Party. "Many in 
the CPP advocate moderation. They don't want extremism. If Hun Sen fails 
and executes more [opponents], it will divide his party." 

For the moment, many analysts believe Asean's options are limited. "It's 
a difficult situation; the political balance has shifted in favour of 
the republicans," says Juwono Sudharsono, deputy governor of Jakarta's 
National Defence Institute. Asean's position, Juwono believes, "depends 
on how Hun Sen plays it. If he can consolidate his position, all the 
sympathy for Ranariddh will fade away."

BURMA 
Kyat Keels 
The blackmarket value of the Burmese currency plummeted in the first 
half of July to 215 kyats to the U.S. dollar from 185 kyats. It may fall 
to as low as 250 kyats by year-end, analysts said. Rangoon countered the 
drop by printing more banknotes-a move widely expected to raise 
inflation, which is running at 20%-30%, according to conservative 
estimates. The currency's official rate still stands at six kyats to the 
U.S. dollar.

THAILAND 
Power Plan with Burma 
Burmese Energy Minister Khin Maung Thein signed an agreement to sell up 
to 1,500 megawatts of electricity to Thailand by 2010. Under the $2.5 
billion deal, Rangoon will choose the developers for the projects to 
generate hydropower and natural gas-fuelled power.












"THERE WILL BE NO REAL DEMOCRACY IF WE CAN'T GURANTEE THE RIGHTS OF THE 
MINORITY ETHNIC PEOPLE.  ONLY UNDERSTANDING THEIR SUFFERING AND HELPING 
THEM TO EXERCISE THEIR RIGHTS WILL ASSIST PREVENTING FROM THE 
DISINTEGRATION AND THE SESESSION."  "WITHOUT UNDERSTANDING THEIR 
STRENGTH, WE CAN'T TOPPLE THE SLORC AND BURMA WILL NEVER BE IN PEACE."


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