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VOA :BURMA/ASEAN.CHINA
- Subject: VOA :BURMA/ASEAN.CHINA
- From: moe@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 02 Jul 1997 21:44:00
DATE=7/2/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-36862
TITLE=BURMA-ASEAN/CHINA
BYLINE=KHIN MAUNG HTAY
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: (UNVOICED)
INTRO: BURMA ALONG WITH CAMBODIA AND LAOS WILL BE ADMITTED TO
THE ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS (ASEAN) LATER THIS
MONTH. BURMA'S MEMBERSHIP WILL BECOME A REALITY DESPITE THE
OBJECTIONS OF WESTERN NATIONS AND BURMESE DEMOCRACY LEADER AUNG
SAN SUU KYI. AS KHIN MAUNG HTAY OF THE BURMESE SERVICE REPORTS
MANY OBSERVERS SAY SOUTHEAST ASIA'S DESIRE TO COUNTER-BALANCE
CHINESE INFLUENCE IN THE REGION IS A MAIN REASON ASEAN DECIDED TO
ADMIT BURMA:
TEXT: SINCE THE ASEAN DECISION, THERE HAS BEEN A FLURRY OF
COMMENTS IN ASIAN AND WESTERN MEDIA, AS WELL AS BY REGIONAL
EXPERTS ON THE ISSUE OF THE THREE ENTRIES.
A MAIN EXPLANATION, HEARD FROM ASEAN LEADERS AND OFFICIALS, IS
THAT THE ADMISSION OF BURMA, LAOS AND CAMBODIA FULFILLS THE
VISION OF A SOUTHEAST ASIAN COMMUNITY ("ASEAN 10") AS THE
ORGANIZATION CELEBRATES ITS 30TH ANNIVERSARY.
HOWEVER, SOME OBSERVERS SAY THE REAL REASON BEHIND THE DECISION
IS MORE LONG-TERM IN OUTLOOK -- AND INVOLVES CONCERNS ABOUT THE
GROWING MAJOR REGIONAL POWER OF CHINA.
FORMER WHITE HOUSE AND STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL PETER RODMAN IS
CURRENTLY DIRECTOR OF STRATEGIC STUDIES AT THE NIXON CENTER IN
WASHINGTON AND AN EDITOR AT THE CONSERVATIVE WEEKLY MAGAZINE --
NATIONAL REVIEW. HE SAID WESTERN NATIONS LOOK AT BURMA AGAINST
THE BACKGROUND OF THE "REALPOLITIK" OF CHINA -- WHICH MR. RODMAN
SAYS IS "WOOING" BURMA TO GAIN STRATEGIC ACCESS TO THE INDIAN
OCEAN:
/// RODMAN ACT ///
THE WEST IS ISOLATING BURMA BECAUSE OF THE HUMAN RIGHTS
SITUATION, AND I WAS JUST POINTING OUT A DILEMMA BECAUSE
I SHARE THE GENERAL FEELING THAT THE SYSTEM OF
GOVERNMENT IN BURMA IS A GREAT VIOLATOR OF HUMAN RIGHTS.
BUT THE DILEMMA IS THAT THE AMERICAN POLICY OF ISOLATING
BURMA AND PUNISHING BURMA MAY JUST BE PUSHING BURMA INTO
THE ARMS OF CHINA AS A MILITARY PARTNER.
// END ACT //
MR. RODMAN SAYS SOME DIPLOMATS SHARE HIS VIEW. HE SAYS BASED ON
HIS ASSESSMENT OF THE GEO-POLITICAL SITUATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA,
ASEAN ACCEPTED BURMA BECAUSE IT SEES BEIJING AS A LONG-TERM
THREAT TO SMALLER NATIONS IN THE REGION:
/// RODMAN ACTUALITY ///
WELL, THERE ARE SOME DIPLOMATS WHO TELL ME THAT THAT IS
THE CASE. OF COURSE, CHINA IS HAVING FRIENDLY RELATIONS
WITH MANY COUNTRIES AND MAYBE THE PROBLEM IS MORE A
FUTURE PROBLEM THAN A PRESENT PROBLEM. ON THE OTHER
HAND, I THINK ASEAN COUNTRIES ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE
LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS OF CHINA'S POWER. AND ONE OF THE
THINGS HOLDING ASEAN TOGETHER IS A COMMON DESIRE TO HAVE
A COUNTERWEIGHT TO CHINA AND TO BE STRONG SO THAT CHINA
DOESN'T OVERWHELM THEM. I THINK THAT IS ONE OF THE
MOTIVES OF BRINGING VIETNAM INTO ASEAN AND ONE OF THE
MOTIVES OF BRINGING BURMA INTO ASEAN
/// END ACT ///
//OPT// MR. RODMAN ALSO SAYS THE AMERICAN MILITARY PRESENCE IN
THE PACIFIC AND EAST ASIA IS ANOTHER COUNTERWEIGHT TO CHINA, AND
U-S ALLIES RELY ON THAT AS WELL. //END OPT//
PROFESSOR SHELDON SIMON OF ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY THINKS
SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT CHINA'S SPHERE OF
INFLUENCE:
/// SIMON ACT ///
EVERYBODY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA HAS, I THINK, AS THE PRIMARY
OBJECT ON ITS POLITICAL RADAR SCREEN, CHINA. ASEAN
WOULD NEVER IDENTIFY CHINA PUBLICLY AS AN ADVERSARY. IN
FACT, ONE OF THE MAJOR REASONS FOR THE CREATION OF THE
ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM (A-R-F) BACK IN 1994 WAS TO ATTEMPT
TO INCORPORATE CHINA INTO A LARGER SECURITY DISCUSSION
ARRANGEMENT IN HOPE THAT BY BRINGING CHINA INTO SECURITY
DISCUSSION, SOMEHOW CHINA'S BEHAVIOR COULD BE MOLDED IN
SUCH A WAY THAT CHINA WOULD NOT OPENLY THREATEN THE
USE OF FORCE TO RESOLVE ITS CLAIMS OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN
WATERS AND TERRITORIES.
/// END ACT ///
JAMES GUYOT (PRON: GOO-YOH), PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND
PUBLIC AFFAIRS AT CITY UNIVERSITY IN NEW YORK, THINKS CHINA WILL
STICK TO BILATERAL DEALINGS WITH BOTH ASEAN AND BURMA. HE SAYS
ASEAN IS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CHINA'S
INFLUENCE OVER BURMA IN TRYING TO BRING ABOUT CHANGE IN THE
MILITARY-RULED COUNTRY:
/// GUYOT ACTUALITY ///
I GUESS I REALLY CAN'T SPECULATE SERIOUSLY ABOUT WHAT
CHINA MIGHT DO. I SIMPLY NOTE THAT CHINA, IN ITS
RELATIONS WITH ASEAN, HAS ALWAYS PREFERRED DEALING IN A
BI-LATERAL WAY RATHER THAN DEALING WITH ASEAN AS A UNIT.
/// END ACT ///
// REST OPT //
BURMA AND CHINA HAVE A LONG HISTORY OF CLOSE RELATIONS -- A
SITUATION THAT REMAINED EVEN WHEN BEIJING SUPPORTED THE BURMA
COMMUNIST PARTY (B-C-P) -- A GUERRILLA GROUP THAT FOUGHT
SUCCESSIVE BURMESE GOVERNMENTS SINCE INDEPENDENCE IN 1948.
BEIJING STRONGLY SUPPORTED THE BURMESE MILITARY GOVERNMENT IN THE
AFTERMATH OF ITS BLOODY SUPPRESSION OF THE 1988 PRO-DEMOCRACY
MOVEMENT IN BURMA. BURMA HAS SINCE STRENGTHENED ITS RELATIONSHIP
WITH CHINA -- POLITICALLY, ECONOMICALLY AND MILITARILY. (SIGNED)
KMT/KMW/DAR/LWM