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VOA :BURMA/ASEAN.CHINA





DATE=7/2/97
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-36862
TITLE=BURMA-ASEAN/CHINA
BYLINE=KHIN MAUNG HTAY
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
 
VOICED AT: (UNVOICED) 

INTRO:  BURMA ALONG WITH CAMBODIA AND LAOS WILL BE ADMITTED TO 
THE ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS (ASEAN) LATER THIS 
MONTH.  BURMA'S MEMBERSHIP WILL BECOME A REALITY DESPITE THE 
OBJECTIONS OF WESTERN NATIONS AND BURMESE DEMOCRACY LEADER AUNG 
SAN SUU KYI.  AS KHIN MAUNG HTAY OF THE BURMESE SERVICE REPORTS 
MANY OBSERVERS SAY SOUTHEAST ASIA'S DESIRE TO COUNTER-BALANCE 
CHINESE INFLUENCE IN THE REGION IS A MAIN REASON ASEAN DECIDED TO
ADMIT BURMA:

TEXT:  SINCE THE ASEAN DECISION, THERE HAS BEEN A FLURRY OF 
COMMENTS IN ASIAN AND WESTERN MEDIA, AS WELL AS BY REGIONAL 
EXPERTS ON THE ISSUE OF THE THREE ENTRIES.

A MAIN EXPLANATION, HEARD FROM ASEAN LEADERS AND OFFICIALS, IS 
THAT THE ADMISSION OF BURMA, LAOS AND CAMBODIA FULFILLS THE 
VISION OF A SOUTHEAST ASIAN COMMUNITY ("ASEAN 10") AS THE 
ORGANIZATION CELEBRATES ITS 30TH ANNIVERSARY.

HOWEVER, SOME OBSERVERS SAY THE REAL REASON BEHIND THE DECISION 
IS MORE LONG-TERM IN OUTLOOK -- AND INVOLVES CONCERNS ABOUT THE 
GROWING MAJOR REGIONAL POWER OF CHINA.

FORMER WHITE HOUSE AND STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL PETER RODMAN  IS
CURRENTLY DIRECTOR OF STRATEGIC STUDIES AT THE NIXON CENTER IN 
WASHINGTON AND AN EDITOR AT THE CONSERVATIVE WEEKLY MAGAZINE -- 
NATIONAL REVIEW.  HE SAID WESTERN NATIONS LOOK AT BURMA AGAINST 
THE BACKGROUND OF THE "REALPOLITIK" OF CHINA -- WHICH MR. RODMAN 
SAYS IS "WOOING" BURMA TO GAIN STRATEGIC ACCESS TO THE INDIAN 
OCEAN:

                              /// RODMAN ACT ///

         THE WEST IS ISOLATING BURMA BECAUSE OF THE HUMAN RIGHTS 
         SITUATION, AND I WAS JUST POINTING OUT A DILEMMA BECAUSE
         I SHARE THE GENERAL FEELING THAT THE SYSTEM OF 
         GOVERNMENT IN BURMA IS A GREAT VIOLATOR OF HUMAN RIGHTS.
         BUT THE DILEMMA IS THAT THE AMERICAN POLICY OF ISOLATING
         BURMA AND PUNISHING BURMA MAY JUST BE PUSHING BURMA INTO
         THE ARMS OF CHINA AS A MILITARY PARTNER.

                                 // END ACT //

MR. RODMAN SAYS SOME DIPLOMATS SHARE HIS VIEW.  HE SAYS BASED ON 
HIS ASSESSMENT OF THE GEO-POLITICAL SITUATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, 
ASEAN ACCEPTED BURMA BECAUSE IT SEES BEIJING AS A LONG-TERM 
THREAT TO SMALLER NATIONS IN THE REGION:

                              /// RODMAN ACTUALITY ///

         WELL, THERE ARE SOME DIPLOMATS WHO TELL ME THAT THAT IS 
         THE CASE.  OF COURSE, CHINA IS HAVING FRIENDLY RELATIONS
         WITH MANY COUNTRIES AND MAYBE THE PROBLEM IS MORE A 
         FUTURE PROBLEM THAN A PRESENT PROBLEM.  ON THE OTHER 
         HAND, I THINK ASEAN COUNTRIES ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE 
         LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS OF CHINA'S POWER.  AND ONE OF THE
         THINGS HOLDING ASEAN TOGETHER IS A COMMON DESIRE TO HAVE
         A COUNTERWEIGHT TO CHINA AND TO BE STRONG SO THAT CHINA 
         DOESN'T OVERWHELM THEM.  I THINK THAT IS ONE OF THE 
         MOTIVES OF BRINGING VIETNAM INTO ASEAN AND ONE OF THE 
         MOTIVES OF BRINGING BURMA INTO ASEAN

                         /// END ACT ///

//OPT// MR. RODMAN ALSO SAYS THE AMERICAN MILITARY PRESENCE IN 
THE PACIFIC AND EAST ASIA IS ANOTHER COUNTERWEIGHT TO CHINA, AND 
U-S ALLIES RELY ON THAT AS WELL. //END OPT//

PROFESSOR SHELDON SIMON OF ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY THINKS 
SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT CHINA'S SPHERE OF 
INFLUENCE:

                        /// SIMON ACT ///

         EVERYBODY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA HAS, I THINK, AS THE PRIMARY
         OBJECT ON ITS POLITICAL RADAR SCREEN, CHINA.  ASEAN 
         WOULD NEVER IDENTIFY CHINA PUBLICLY AS AN ADVERSARY.  IN
         FACT, ONE OF THE MAJOR REASONS FOR THE CREATION OF THE 
         ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM (A-R-F) BACK IN 1994 WAS TO ATTEMPT
         TO INCORPORATE CHINA INTO A LARGER SECURITY DISCUSSION 
         ARRANGEMENT IN HOPE THAT BY BRINGING CHINA INTO SECURITY
         DISCUSSION, SOMEHOW CHINA'S BEHAVIOR COULD BE MOLDED IN 
         SUCH A WAY THAT CHINA WOULD  NOT  OPENLY THREATEN THE 
         USE OF FORCE TO RESOLVE ITS CLAIMS OF  SOUTHEAST ASIAN 
         WATERS AND TERRITORIES.

                         /// END ACT ///

JAMES GUYOT (PRON: GOO-YOH), PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND 
PUBLIC AFFAIRS AT CITY UNIVERSITY IN NEW YORK, THINKS CHINA WILL 
STICK TO BILATERAL DEALINGS WITH BOTH ASEAN AND BURMA.  HE SAYS 
ASEAN IS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CHINA'S 
INFLUENCE OVER BURMA IN TRYING TO BRING ABOUT CHANGE IN THE 
MILITARY-RULED COUNTRY:

                     /// GUYOT ACTUALITY ///

         I GUESS I REALLY CAN'T SPECULATE SERIOUSLY ABOUT WHAT 
         CHINA MIGHT DO.  I SIMPLY NOTE THAT CHINA, IN ITS 
         RELATIONS WITH ASEAN, HAS ALWAYS PREFERRED DEALING IN A 
         BI-LATERAL WAY RATHER THAN DEALING WITH ASEAN AS A UNIT.

                         /// END ACT ///

                        // REST OPT //  

BURMA AND CHINA HAVE A LONG HISTORY OF CLOSE RELATIONS -- A 
SITUATION THAT REMAINED EVEN WHEN BEIJING SUPPORTED THE BURMA 
COMMUNIST PARTY (B-C-P) -- A GUERRILLA GROUP THAT FOUGHT 
SUCCESSIVE BURMESE GOVERNMENTS SINCE INDEPENDENCE IN 1948. 

BEIJING STRONGLY SUPPORTED THE BURMESE MILITARY GOVERNMENT IN THE
AFTERMATH OF ITS BLOODY SUPPRESSION OF THE 1988 PRO-DEMOCRACY 
MOVEMENT IN BURMA.  BURMA HAS SINCE STRENGTHENED ITS RELATIONSHIP
WITH CHINA -- POLITICALLY, ECONOMICALLY AND MILITARILY. (SIGNED)

KMT/KMW/DAR/LWM