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News from India (r)
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CHINA-US RIVALRY IN MYANMAR
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The mystery-wrapped US economic sanctions against Myanmar
has evoked a strong reaction in ASEAN capitals. Political
observers are at pains to explain the sudden decision. Has
the sanction really something to do with the violation of
human rights by the military junta, popularly known as
State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC)? If it was
the case, why did Washington not impose such sanctions long
ago when democracy was butchered, and thereafter elections
were held in 1990, and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, won
with a thumping majority? But she was not allowed to form
the government by the SLORC, and imprisoned.
Last year, Washington announced a first stage response by
declaring that leaders of the SLORC and their relatives
will not be given visas to travel to the US., Last January,
Washington dropped hints to SLORC leaders, expressing the
Clinton Administration's unhappiness in the manner Coco
Island in the Bay of Bengal was being militarized by China.
The US had also proposed economic assistaned to Myanmar if
it was willing to lease the strategically-located island to
the US Navy. It would have meant that instead of one base
at Diego Garcia, the US would have two bases for its Navy
to operate in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans. This is in
conformity with the American designs: NATO expansion
eastwards, and encirclement of China and India through
naval surveillance.
While New Delhi continues to be a bystander, ignoring its
geographical and historical ties with Myanmar, there are
three distinctly different wiews about how it should go
about the business of interacting with the country. One
wiew urges New Delhi to adopt a proactive, instead of the
present reactive, policy sooner than later as the present
state of affairs in Myanmar may prove to be illusory and
the junta may be overthrown in a popular uprising.
In such a scenario, New Delhi would be caught in an awkward
position. The policy of aligning with the junta may prove
to be shortsighted. The second view predicts that SLORC
will continue to rule Myanmar despite mounting
international pressure. This scenario requires that India
should shrug off its dithering and start taking action to
emerge as a countervailing force against China/US. China
has fully exploited the isolation of Myanmar in the
international community by proving to be a friend, a
development that India can not longer ignore as it is
happening as its doorstep, supporters of this view say.
China has already constructed 102 km highway linking
south-west China's Yunan province with Myanmar. Opened to
traffic in May 1995, as reported by the official Chinese
news agency, Xinhua, this is part of the Yunan province' s
plans to complete and upgrade four national roads linking
the Yunan province capital, Kunming, with Myanmar as well
as with Xishuangbanna and its neighbourig Guizhou and
Sichuan provinces, by the year 2000.
Indian has not been oblivious to the Chinese interest in
Myanmar and it may be recalled that the Ministry of
Defence's annual report released recently drew attention to
this development. The report noted that Beijing was
"engaged in building strategic road links from its border
towns to railheads and sea ports in Myanmar it is also
helping to develop these ports." Myanmar is further
referred to in the MoD report in the context of managing
the insurgent groups in the North- east , and here the
report adds that the outcome will "naturally depend on the
effective control of the Government of Myanmar on its
western border areas."
Chinese presence in Myanmar and the upgradation of
communication links had an inevitability about it that
could be discerned even as far back as the mid- 70s. This
was dictated by the momentum that Mr Deng Xiaoping's
economic modernization had attained and the geographical
characteristics of the southern Yunan province, and the
viability proximity of the Myanmar Mandalay axis. This has
now been realized and will only facilitate greater Chinese
influence and presence that will augment an already Sinic
sheen to Mandalay's economic and commercial activity.
Chinese presence and interest in Myanmar and the
implications for India have been perceived and interpreted
at many levels. An abiding feature is the possibility of
Chinese naval ships and submarines using Myanmar's
facilities for establishing their "presence" in the waters
of the Indian Ocean. This is a possibility that cannot be
discounted and it has significant strategic implications
for such an exigency which encompasses the interests of not
just China and India, but the USA as well.
China, according to latest Western intelligence estimates,
is likely to field two ocean-going naval task forces with
an aircraft carrier each and about 12 nuclear missile-armed
submarines (SSBNs) by the year 2020, but this development
is predicated upon resurgence in post-Deng China.
However, what is more immediate in a temporal sense and
with equal if not greater import for India is the creeping
assertiveness of Chinese economic presence in the vicinity
of India's North-east. This is likely to be facilitated by
the opening of border trade facilities between India and
Myanmar at Moreh, formally inaugurated on April 12, 1995.
India's resolve to legitimize and increase the quantum of
border trade between the North east and Maynmar is
commendable and reflective of economic compulsions with
political strategic overtones. But, China has a head-start
and its cross-border trade with Myanmar is closer to $1
billion (excluding unaccounted-for arms and narcotic trade)
as opposed to India's estimated cross-border volume of $
150 million.
In the short term India will have to factor in this
contingency and the impact that creeping Chinese
assertiveness will have on the North-east whose own
linkages with the mainland are tenuous and on occasion
vulnerable. However, Myanmar is also seized with the
implications of growing Chinese ascendancy on its own turf,
and the historical precedent where the "Middle Kingdom"
demanded and obtained tribute from the Court of Ava (old
Burma) is not so blurred. Currently India- Myanmar
relations have been nurtured in a pragmatic manner, under
the stewardship of the Indian Ambassador, Mr G.
Parthasarthy, and the continuous balance between principles
and interest has to be maintained.
The ruling military regime in Yangon, the SLORC, has
consolidated its hold further with the fall of Manerplay on
the Thai-Myanmar border on January 26. Headquarters of the
Karen National Union one of Myanmar's strongest ethnic
rebel armies, Manerplaw was symbolic of substantial
resistance to the SLORC and now the Karens are scattered .
The complexity of the Yangon-Beijing connection has two
strategic dimensions, namely, to isolate India and
jeopardize its peace chances in the Northeast. Out of sheer
modesty, we have refrained from criticizing the Chinese for
their past sins of fanning insurgency in this sensitive
part of the country, which is of equally great significance
as the Kashmir Valley.
China has yet to reconcile to the fact that Arunachal
Pradesh forms an integral part of India. A turbulent
North-east suits the geostrategic needs of not only China
but also Pakistan' which has stepped up its destabilization
operation by sending ISI operatives through Bangladesh. The
long-term prespective of whether China or the USA occupies
the Coco Island is grim for Indian security, both at sea
and on land.
(INAV)
News and Information Bureau, All Burma Students League
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