Asean to push back new admission to

[ausgeo@xxxxxxx]

Subject: Asean to push back new admission to December 

30 May 1997 
The Nation 

Asean to push back new admission to December 

KAVI CHONGKITTAVORN 

W hen the Asean foreign ministers meet tomorrow in Kuala Lumpur, it will be 
about a face-saving exercise to salvage one of the world's most famous 
organisations. 

Confronted with members' divergent views coupled with Washington's latest 
tough stance, Asean leaders are expected to defer their decision to admit 
Laos, Cambodia and Burma to the end of the year. 

What is at stake is insurmountable: Asean will put at risk its relations with 
the United States if the grouping goes ahead with its decision to admit Burma 
tomorrow. Washington had made it clear to Asean senior officials at last 
week's meeting of the Asean Regional Forum (ARF) on Langkawi Island that the 
new US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright would have to reconsider the US' 
participation in the ARF and post ministerial conference this July in Kuala 
Lumpur. 

It was Washington's strongest words ever on Burma toward Asean since both 
sides had established a strong rapport and agreed to disagree on Burma during 
the first Clinton administration. Asean has now realised with Albright that it 
is a different ball game. 

Since Burma was attending the ARF preparation meeting for the first time after 
it was admitted last year, some ARF members would like to hear about the 
situation in Burma from the horse's mouth. Representatives of the US, 
Australia, Canada and the EU did raise two important issues concerning the 
drafting of Burma's constitution and the national reconciliation process which 
the Burmese government has pledged to do. But the discussion on Burma was cut 
short due to time constraints when the US representative, Aurelia Brazeal, 
deputy assistant secretary of state for Asia and Pacific Affairs, wanted to 
engage further the Burmese chief delegate, U Aye Lwin, director general of the 
Political Affairs Department. However, they met outside the plenary session. 

Brazeal was able to stress the US position on Burma and express serious 
concern over the recent arrests of members and supporters of the National 
League for Democracy by Slorc over the past weeks, while Lwin explained 
Slorc's effort to complete the drafting of the constitution, which is more 
than halfway finished, and other official lines. 

The Langkawi meeting also provided the opportunity for Brazeal to exchange 
views on Burma with senior Asean officials privately and to express for the 
first time US views on the second Clinton Administration and Albright's work 
so far. 

The US message was very succinct: If Asean would like to admit Burma this 
year, it should wait until December. The reason is quite simple: it would make 
all the US efforts, especially the recent anti-Slorc measures, look 
ridiculous, and consequently, it would force Albright to skip the scheduled 
ARF and post Asean meeting. With a hostile Congress, she has a very limited 
choice. 

When Washington slapped a ban on all new US investment in Burma last month, it 
was aimed at delivering a strong message to Burma rather than influencing 
Asean's decision on admission. The US administration wanted to demonstrate to 
Slorc that Washington was serious about the violation of human rights there. 

Although the new investment ban was primarily aimed at pre-empting a more 
powerful pending legislation in the Congress, it did provide a good reason for 
Asean to further look into allowing Burma into the fold. 

With Albright and her effort to revitalise US foreign policy, especially in 
regards to engagement in Asia and the rest of Southeast Asia, Burma is a 
litmus test for future US-Asean relations. When she holds her maiden meetings 
with Asean foreign ministers in July, the latter will find out that their 
first ever woman colleague at the post ministerial meeting means business. 

It is certainly more than Asean members would like to admit, but Washington's 
strong insistence that the admission of Burma be delayed also gives Asean some 
leeway. Given the current political crisis in Cambodia as well as the growing 
repression in Burma, July's admission would be detrimental to Asean's 
international image and cause irreparable damage to the grouping's ties with 
the US. 

When the Asean foreign ministers meet tomorrow, they would do well to consider 
the information paper prepared by the Asean Secretariat reviewing the 
technical preparations of all three prospective members. Of all the three, 
Burma, ironically, will be given the highest marks for its readiness to join 
Asean both in the technical and human resources areas. The reason is that Laos 
and Cambodia lack sufficient officials to handle Asean affairs. By the end of 
July, Laos will have a total of 300 officials who can speak English to attend 
the average 245 Asean meetings annually. The Burmese Foreign Ministry has 
recently set up the Asean Free Trade Area unit, which has a staff of 30 or so 
officials. 

As for Cambodia, its troubles extend to its political uncertainty, which will 
become the main focus in providing Asean foreign ministers with the 
justification to wait until July to assess that nation's readiness at the 
grouping's formal meeting. 

Since Asean heads of government decided at last November's meeting to accept 
the three countries simultaneously, it is only natural that the foreign 
ministers will make the recommendation that the applicants will be ready and 
be blessed by the Asean summitteers in December. 

Although Asean has been saying that the decision on admission will be based on 
their technical readiness, it is still, and will always be, a 
politically-driven one. All things considered, it is a win-win situation. The 
US will be happy to see Burma's admission delayed until December, and Asean 
will become Asean 10 this year. It is a case of you scratch my back, I'll 
scratch yours.