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Playing diplomatic chicken over Mya



Subject: Playing diplomatic chicken over Myanmar 


Business Times 30/4
          Playing diplomatic chicken over Myanmar 



    US putting itself in a bind by saying it won't be able to
               relate to an Asean with Myanmar in 



AHIGH-stake diplomatic game of chicken is being played out between the
United States and
Asean, with Washington daring the South-east Asian grouping to take Myanmar
in at the risk of
incurring its wrath. 

Now that the US has decided to openly oppose Asean's decision to allow
Yangon to join its club,
all eyes are now on Asean to see if it will give in to US pressure -- and
risk losing face -- or resist
America's strong-arm tactics. 

In the meantime, Myanmar is sitting gleefully on the sidelines, watching an
unfolding drama in which
it stands to lose nothing. 

But the signals from Asean are unmistakably clear: no way is Asean going to
drop Myanmar simply
because the US feels awkward in dealing with an Asean which has a repressive
regime as a
member. 

The US is entitled to its own opinion about Yangon, but it is for Asean to
decide who it wants as
friends and as fellow members, so the message goes. 

Led by Malaysia, the current chair, Asean is standing tough on what is seen
as US meddling in its
internal affairs. 

The US tactics could well backfire: far from dropping Yangon, Asean might
just decide to quicken
its entry into the group -- perhaps just to prove a point that Asean will
never succumb to external
pressure. 

And if Asean decides to make this message loud and clear, it will be
Washington's turn to make a
choice -- remain on its high horse or climb down. 

Asean ministers are trying hard not to portray this development as an
Asean-US confrontation. But a
war of words across the Pacific is likely to go on right up till July when
Asean convenes yet again its
annual talks with its key security and trading partners in Kuala Lumpur. 

The US may try to raise the pressure on Asean again as May 31 approaches --
the date when
Asean will convene a special meeting in KL to finalise its position on
Myanmar's entry, which will
be done simultaneously with that of Cambodia and Laos. 

The Americans are actually putting themselves in quite a bind by saying that
it would not be able to
relate to an Asean with Myanmar as a member. For if Asean pays no heed to
the US demand for
Myanmar to be dropped -- which is most likely to be the case -- then the
tough-talking new US
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright will certainly feel awkward turning up
at the Asean Regional
Forum in July. 

But does she really want to miss such a major gathering? Surely, being new
in the job, she will not
wish to be left out of one of the world's most prestigious security forums
where almost all major
world players will be involved. 

Washington upped the ante on Yangon last Tuesday by announcing fresh
economic sanctions on the
regime for its human rights record. 

Four days later, the State Department openly and publicly said for the first
time that it would oppose
any attempt by Asean to accept Myanmar as a new member this year. 

The thing to watch is how the US will respond when Myanmar becomes a member
of Asean. It
would be tragic if, in a fit of anger, Washington tries to retaliate by
downgrading its ties with Asean. 

The US may think that Asean cannot afford to lose the huge American market.
That may well be
true. But in an era in which global growth is gravitating towards this part
of the world, sacrificing
Asean's goodwill over the question of Myanmar might also be too high a price
to pay.