The BurmaNet News, March 18, 1997

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"Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies"
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The BurmaNet News: March 18, 1997
Issue #670

HEADLINES:
==========
BURMANET: SITUATION UPDATE- REFUGEES FLEEING SLORC
BUSINESS TIMES: MYANMAR MAY NOT LOSE GSP PRIVILEGES
THE NATION: EU POISED TO RAP BURMA ON RIGHTS
REUTER: BURMA MONKS PROTEST IN MANDALAY
REUTER: AT LEAST 35 KILLED AS BOAT CAPSIZES IN BURMA
DVB: SLORC TURNING MANERPLAW INTO MILITARY AIR BASE
BEIJING XINHUA: LUO GAN TO VISIT BURMA
VIENTIANE KPL: DRAFT OF BORDER AGREEMENT DISCUSSED
BKK POST: POLICE 'TO CRACK DOWN ON ILLEGAL WORKERS'
BKK POST: US-ASEAN GROUP BLASTED
BKK POST: US MOGULS CREATE IMPRESSION OF GREED
BKK POST: MILITARY RESHUFFLE IMMINENT
RANGOON MYANMAR ALIN: "BELIEVING IN OMENS"
NLM:MINISTER FOR NPED RECEIVES ASIAN CHEMICAL TEAM 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

BURMANET: SITUATION UPDATE; REFUGEES FLEEING THE SLORC OFFENSIVE AGAINST
KNU, MERGUI
TAVOY DISTRICT. (4TH BRIGADE).
March 16, 1997

Refugees arriving in Sangklaburi district, Kanchanaburi Province.

Thu Ka refugee camp is located just south of Nai E Taung town, near
Sangklaburi. Though located on the Burma side of the border, access to
NGOs delivering assistance had never been denied. The camp has a mixed
Karen and Tavoyan population -- up to February, the population had remianed
stable at around 1000.

In late February, SLORC troops entered villages located between Thu Ka and
the top of the Tenassserim river ( an area known as Ke Maw Thway). Hence, in
the early days of March new arrivals came to Thu Ka swelling the population
to around 2000.

On 9.3.97 SLORC troops of IB25 arrived at a village quite close to the
camp, raising fears of attack amongst the refugees. On that day the
refugees moved themselves across the border to the place known as Mong Soe
Mine -- a short walk down the mountain from the border. Border Patrol Police
told them that they has no permission to stay there. On 10.3.97 Thai
soldiers from the 9th Division physically pushed them back towards the
border. They were told that if  SLORC troops actually arrive at Thu Ka then,
and only then, would they be allowed to enter Thailand.

The refugees currently occupy a spot right on the border on top of the
mountain, afraid to go back to the original Thu Ka site where they fear
attack by SLORC at any time. This hill-top site does not have adequate
water for 2000 people.

Refugees ariving at Kanchanaburi district, Kanchanaburi Province.

The refugees at the Pu Muang site remain unsure of their future. They have
been given no clear indication of how long they might be allowed to remain
at that place. The fact that they are not allowed to set up any
semi-permanent structures (even wooden platforms to raise themselves off
the ground) leads them to believe that they will be moved to another place
soon.

Adult males (over the age of 13) are increasingly afraid of being caught
by the Thai authorities and being asked to leave the camp. They hide in
the bushes at the edges of the camp whenever Thai soldiers are around.
Border sources report that the 9th Division army had announced in the camp
that as of Sunday 16th March, such adult males should not be seen in the
camp; furthermore, that if the authorities were to enter the camp after
that date they could arrest males as being illegal immigrants.

NGOs still have access for humanitarian assistance, water sanitation
remains problematic.

Refugees at Htaw Ma Pyo Hta, adjacent to Ratchaburi Province.

The situation remains stable at this site. NGOs have access to deliver
food and medicines though logistically the access road is difficult and
will be impossible once the rains start. The Thai military authorities are
said to have requested the KNU to keep a clear zone' of 5kms back from the
border where large numbers of refugees should not be allowed to
congregate.

The diarrhoea epidemic has abated somewhat though many people remain sick.
Areas with better water sources and adequate drainage are being actively
sought to try to move some of the people to healthier spots. The whole area
is old mine workings and much of the flat land is water logged making
construction of latrines and wells difficult. SLORC military helicopters fly
overhead at MawHta nd Htaw Ma Pyo area regularly which has led to erroneous
reports of air attacks.

Refugees arriving at Prachuab Kiri Khan Province.

Border sources reported last week that a small number of displaced people
had arrived at the Thai border, fleeing fighting,  in the area adjacent to
Pranburi town, Hua Hin district. 

SLORC troops began their offensive against the KNU township headquarters at
Ler Ker, located near to the border on around 6.3.97. The fighting spread
out and villagers started to flee from the many villages along this area of
the border. On 10.3.97 it was reported that a small number of displaced
people had crossed the border, at the points known as Ter Lwee and Thoo Rae,
seeking safety. On 15.3.97 these people were told that they could not stay
there and that they must go back to the Burma- side of the border. They
crossed back to the Burma side and joined the now 300 or more people massing
there just at the border line. Since some of the displaced people were sick
and elderly, the Karen authorities asked for, and were granted, a few days
respite so that they could rest before having to find a new safe site where
they could receive NGO assistance. 

A new site has now been located at Htee Yaw Kee, some 2 days walk from the
place where they are now. The new site is said to have good water and is
some distance away from the fighting. NGOs can apply for permisssion to
assist through this point on the border though logistics will be difficult
since the dirt road on the Thai side stops short of the border. From the
end of the dirt road it is said to be around 6 hours walk to the place
where the refugees will settle. It will take some 2-3 days for all the 300
refugees to arrive there. If the fighting continues in the area, there
could be many more displaced people coming to receive assiatnce at his
place since the area has many large villages. Serious watery diarrhoea has
been reported among the first group and there have been 9- 10 deaths so
far.

----------------------

Interview with a refugee from Thu Ka.

The following is an interview with a refugee at Thu Ka collected by an
individual visiting the area between 13th and 15th March. The refugee's
name has been withheld due to fear of reprisals against those talking to
outsiders.

Name: withheld
Age   : 34
Sex    : Male
Date of interview: 12.3.97

In the morning, after breakfast, on 9.3.97, I was in Thu Ka camp and was
planning to go into the jungle to look for firewood. However, at that time
everybody in the camp was talking about a possible SLORC attack against
the camp and they were very frightened. We got a message that stated that
the SLORC troops at Wa Loung Toe had gone into the jungle and were
possibly heading towards Thu Ka.
 
We left Thu Ka camp at 12 noon and when we arrived at Mong Soe Mine [on the
Thai side of the border] we were met by four  Border Patrol Police
(BPP). The four BPP men immediately made a barrier of bamboo across the
road, but none of us cared about the bamboo nor the Thai border police.
One of the Thai border policemen even got pushed over by the crowd of us
and fell on his back. The BPP said, "We cannot stop you, but you will have
to return soon, as soon as the army arrives." 
 
We wanted to continue down  past the Mong Soe mine, since there it might
not be safe from  SLORC mortars to stay at the mine. The  BPP refused to
let us proceed to this area. At this time many of the children were crying
because of thirst and the  heat, it was the hottest time of the day. There
was a big tree there but impossible for all of us to receive enough shade. 

One spokesman went to the BPP to ask for permission to get drinking water
from the nearby stream and they said that only three people would be
allowed at a time. The BPP said, "I am worried that you will go inside our
country." The spokesman got very angry and  told him that we were already in
Thailand. Three people then went to the stream to get water for the other
thirsty refugees. 

We stayed at that hot place for about one hour and then a truck came with
18 soldiers wearing  uniforms. The person I thought was the leader was
using very sharp language and said, "you cannot stay here any more. I know
that the SLORC is far from Thu Ka and you have to return to the camp. If
there is fighting at Thu Ka we will allow you to come back." 

At this time I thought, "I know the situation much better than you," bu tI
kept it to myself. 

At 2pm,  the four BPP and the 18 soldiers started to push back all of us
along the road towards Thu Ka. I saw a woman, 43 years old with a weak
heart, when the Thai soldiers said, "go, go," she felt weak and dizzy. Her
husband and I massaged and encouraged her. We stood up and slowly started
climbing the steep slope towards the border.

None of us wanted to go back because we are afraid of the SLORC more than we
are afraid of the Thais. We delayed the process by sitting down. Some even
lay down on the ground. We thought that if we  proceeded like this, the
Thais would not push us back. However, they continued to physically pushing
us; they pushed me in the back twice, shouting , "go, go, go," in Thai.

Some women dropped their loads onto the ground, and the soldiers put the
loads back onto their heads.  One of the refugees threw away her whole
load in dispair when the Thais put her dropped load back onto her head.
She was crying, but I had no time to take care of her because I was afraid
and had to continue. 

Normally, it would take us 10 minutes to get up the first slope, to Ke Baw
Yu Plaw [a flat field still on the Thai side of the border], but we
arrived at the field at about 5pm; it took us three hours in all.
Everybody was hungry, some people put down their belongings and started
cooking and eating. Then it started raining which started a lot of
activity to find shelter. Some had not received any plastic as they had
just newly arrived at Thu Ka from their home. There were about 50 sheets
of plastic on the ground, and I started sharing them with those who had
nothing.  We even gave some plastic sheets to the Thai soldiers who asked
for some, so they would not get wet.

It rained for about one hour. Even though we had plastic as a shelter from
the rain, the ground got wet. After that we started cooking again. We
slept on Ke Baw Yu Plaw that night. 

The night was filled with the cries of children and people were cold in
the night. I could only sleep two hours that night. I thought about my
life and I missed my baby very much. When we left our village my baby was
only two months old, she got diarrhoea and died. My wife and I had now come
to Thailand, and we were being pushed back. I though that the SLORC or DKBA
could burn down the camp as happened in the Mae Sot area. After what I saw
that day, I think that even if the SLORC or DKBA did this, the Thai soldiers
would not care. I was thinking and worrying what would happen the next day,
would they continue shouting, "go,go,go," and really push us all back to
Burma? At  4am I fell asleep.

In the morning we cooked and after breakfast we thought that the Thais
would allow us to stay, so some people started cutting bamboo for huts.
The Thais did not say anything so more of us began building slightly
larger shelters. 

At around noon, the Thai soldiers started collecting the refugees again by
using a loudspeaker. Most of the people had found shelter in the bushes
and had slept spread out.  Very slowly, people came out while others
ignored the call. The commander said, "If you do not come out I will take
you all to Nai-E-Taung by truck." [Nai E Taung is the SLORC base camp in the
area].When we heard what the commander said,we all gotfrightened and came
out onto the middle of the field quickly.The soldiers counted
everybody and took photographs and video of us. Some people did not
understand what the video camera was and thought it was a weapon and were
very afraid. The recording of the refugees took about two hours and then the
Thais allowed everybody to return to their posessions. I thought that the
Thais would not push us back again, so I lay down to sleep while someothers
started cooking dinner.

At about 2.30pm I was still resting and others were eating when the Thai
soldiers once again started ordering us to go back. A few soldiers cut
down our bamboo shelter with their knives and again shouted, "go, go, go,
quickly, quickly." Some people had to throw away their rice and collect
their belongings ready to go.

The people did not resist as much as the day before and the soldiers did
not physically push them.  Everybody went back to the Karen side of the
border and once again started building  new houses. We stay here until
now, but in my opinion the SLORC will definitely attack and the KNLA
cannot stop them, because they could not even stop the SLORC in Htee Kee
[The KNU district headquarters recently occupied by SLORC].I hope that the
SLORC do not come because I do not want to go to Thailand again, and I do
not want to see the Thai soldiers pushing us back again. Here, everybody is
frightened, even me. 

***********************************

BUSINESS TIMES: MYANMAR MAY NOT LOSE GSP PRIVILEGES
March 7, 1997

Three  countries said to block EC move to end concessions

	A proposal by the European Commission (EC) to strip Myanmar of millions of
dollars worth of tariff preferences is being blocked by three countries and
may not be adopted by European Foreign ministers later this month.  
	International trade unions which are campaigniing for an end to Myanmar's
access to the European Union's Generalised System of Preferences (GSP)-
which gives developing countries tariff concessions in the European market-
say that Britain, Germany and France are opposed to the proposal for
economic and political reasons. 
	The unions say the three countries may block the proposals when they come
up for adoption by EU foreign ministers in Brussels on March 24.
	The international and European trade unions groups want the EU to withdraw
tariff concessions given to Myanmar because of the country's use of forced
labour and child labour in several key sectors.
	In a proposal sent to EU capitals earlier this year, the EC accepted the
unions' complaint.  It said it had obtained firm proof that Myanmar's ruling
junta, the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) was using forced
labout, defying standards set by the Geneva-based International Labour
Office (ILO).
	But the proposal cannot be turned into EU law without all 15 EU governments
endorsing it.  In recent discussions, several EU countries have suggested
thaat the European Parliament should have asked to give its comments on the
Commission's plans.  Others think the GSP sanctions must be part of a wider
EU package on human rights.
	The unions say EU governments are using delay tactics to avoid a difficult
decision.  Germany and Britain have traditionally blocked any moves to link
trade and labour standards.  They made this clear at last year's World Trade
Organisation ministerial meeting in Singapore.
	Both countries are also believed to be concerned that any punitive action
approved against Myanmar could unleash a host of trade union calls for trade
sanctions against other countries accused of using forced labour and child
labour.
	French diplomats deny that Paris opposes the sanctions.  "We are in favour
of the Commission's proposals and hope that the concession will be withdrawn
later this month," a diplomat said.  The trade unions maintain that France
is unwilling to endorse the trade sanction to protect French investments in
Myanmar, but France insists such allegations are "completely untrue".
	French oil giant Total is working with US-based Unocal on a US$1.2 billion
project to build a gas pipeline in the country.  
	A British diplomat insisted that a final decision on whether or not to
adopt the EC proposals will be taken by ministers later this month.
	Differences over policy towards Myanmar dominated a recent meeting of
European and Asean foreign ministers in Singapore.  In their ublic comments,
EU governments have urged Asean to take a tougher line against SLORC and
said that even if it joins Asean in July, Myanmar was unlikeley to become
part of the EU-Asean cooperation arrangement.

**************************************

THE NATION: EU POISED TO RAP BURMA ON RIGHTS
March 17, 1997
Agence France-Presse

BRUSSELS - The European Union will debate this week whether to strip Burma
of its low-tariff access to European consumers over it use of forced labour,
but the Southeast Asian nations fate is practically sealed, EU officials said.

It seems "likely" that the move to expel Burma from the EU's Generalised
System of Preference (GSP) will be approved without discussion by
ambassadors from the 15 EU states, a European Commission source said.

"The only problem could come from Britain, which has a policy of not linking
trade and labour issues," he said. British officials however said London
would not oppose the move.

Wednesday's decision, which would hit both agricultural and industrial goods
imported from Burma to the EU, will then go to EU foreign minister for
formal approval on March 24.

The European Commission called for an end to GSP privileges for Burma in
February, following testimonies by 42 organisations to the widespread use of
forced or child labour in the country.

"The Commission asked to go to Burma to discuss this with the govnerment"
but its request was turned down," said Gwynn Morgan, who heads the Southeast
Asian section of the European Commission.

The International Confederation of Free Trade Unions (ICFTU) estimates that
800,000 Burmese are currently involved in various forms of forced labour,
accounting for 10 per cent of the country output.

If the GSP no longer applies to Burmese exports to the EU, Rangoon will find
itself having to pay 2.262 million ECU (Bt70million) more in customs duties
this year, according to EU estimates.

According to the European Commission, about two thirds of Burma's exports to
the EU are currently covered by GSP. More than half of Burmese imports are
made up of industrial goods, mainly textiles, GSP officials say.

While the lifting of tariff privileges would hardly affect EU importers -
Burma is one of Europe's smallest Asian trading partners - Burma, one of the
least-developed nations ion the region, can ill afford the loss of trade.

The country's economic climate s "complete insane," one EU official said.
"It's economy is slowing down... They have certainly not reached the stage
of Indonesia 20 years ago."

"Forced labour is practically tradition in Burma," another official said.
"Instead of being left in peace to cultivate their hemp, farmers are moved
by force to go and work on construction sites," he said. 

He said that although the GSP ban, if it goes through, is hardly likely to
improve the lives of Burmese peasants in nay way, it might at least "weigh
on the leadership. It is both an economic and political move."

The EU's broader concerns over human rights abuses in Burma has created
tension in its relationship with the Asean.

The regional group oppose moves to isolate Rangoon, arguing that
"constructive engagement" is the best way to open up and develop the country.

Although no date has been set for Burma's entry into Asean, several EU
experts believe it will come soon, maybe as early as April.

Inn Kuala Lumpur in July Asean will celebrate 30 years of existence and is
seen as being keen on bringing Burma, Laos and Cambodia in before the
anniversary. (TN)

*******************************************************

REUTER: BURMA MONKS PROTEST IN MANDALAY OVER WEEKEND
March 17, 1997

    RANGOON, March 17 (Reuter) - Buddhist monks demonstrated
over the weekend in Burma's second city Mandalay, but the protests were
quelled without incident, government sources said on Monday.
    The sources said the demonstrations were sparked by rumours that a young
Buddhist girl had been raped by some Moslems. No further details were
available and spokesmen for the military government were not immediately
available for comment.
    A government source said officials were still looking into the protest,
which apparently took place on Saturday. He said there was no shooting
involved and there were no casualties.
    "We have now succeeded in quelling the riots," he said.
    Buddhist monks played a key role in 1988 national pro-democracy
uprisings when hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets to
protest against the military regime. The demonstrations were eventually
quashed by the government which killed or imprisoned thousands -- including
monks.
    Since then the Buddhist monks have been largely silenced but diplomats
and analysts say there have been some signs of unrest among younger monks
who want to see Burma return to democracy. Opposition sources say support
from monks would be crucial for major change to take place in Burma.

**********************************

REUTER: AT LEAST 35 KILLED AS BOAT CAPSIZES IN BURMA
March 17, 1997

    RANGOON, March 17 (Reuter) - At least 35 people were killed when a
triple-decker ferry boat capsized on the Irrawaddy River in northern Burma
during a sudden storm, officials said on Monday.
    The boat, run by the Ministry of Transport's Inland Water Transport
(IWT), capsized on Saturday night while sailing from Katha, about 800 miles
(1,290 km) north of Rangoon, to Burma's second city of Mandalay.
    State-run newspapers said on Monday that 502 passengers had been rescued
and the bodies of 28 men and seven women had been recovered.
    An IWT official told Reuters that rescue workers were still searching
for bodies, adding that it was not known how many passengers were on the
boat when it capsized.

*****************************

OSLO DEMOCRATIC VOICE OF BURMA: SLORC TURNING MANERPLAW INTO MILITARY AIR
BASE WITH PRC AID
(translated from Burmese)
March 12, 1997

According to a Burmese border source a new influx of Karen refugees onto
Thai soil is likely after the completion of an airport at the SLORC's [State
Law and Order Restoration Council] Manerplaw military base being constructed
in an attempt to eradicate the ethnic minority rebel
group.
The SLORC has stationed three army divisions at Manerplaw, the former
headquarters of the KNU [Karen National Union] which fell to the SLORC-DKBA
[Democratic Karen Buddhist Army] combined forces in January 1995, in an
attempt to transform it into a central military base.
The flat terrain around Manerplaw and the Thai-Burma border area makes
it an ideal site for a military air base.  The SLORC is trying to complete
construction of the airport with Chinese financial assistance within the
next three months.
In this initial stage, four small patrolling aircraft and six helicopters
already use Manerplaw as a base.  Larger military aircraft are expected
after construction is completed and Manerplaw base will help the Burmese
junta send military reinforcements directly into the border area.
The SLORC is urgently constructing the Manerplaw air base to send
ammunition and supplies to the SLORC forces engaged in operations near the
border in the rugged terrains of the Karen and Karenni regions.
The Manerplaw air base will also serve as a launching pad for
operations against the anti-Rangoon KNU, Karen National Union, and the
KNPP, Karenni National Progressive Party, armed guerrillas, reports Assawin
Pinitwong in today's Thailand Times.

**********************************

BEIJING XINHUA: LUO GAN TO VISIT SRV, CAMBODIA, BURMA, INDONESIA
March 13, 1997

Beijing, March 13 (XINHUA) -- Luo Gan, Chinese State Councillor and
Secretary-General of the State Council, will pay a good-will visit to
Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar [Burma], Bangladesh and Indonesia from March 17
to April 6.
This was announced by Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Cui Tiankai
at a routine press conference here today.
Luo will pay the visit at the invitation of the government of the
Socialist Republic of Vietnam, the government of the Kingdom of Cambodia,
Secretary-General of the State Law and Order Restoration Council of the
Union of Myanmar Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt, Minister of Foreign Affairs
of the People's Republic of Bangladesh Abdus Samad Azad and Secretary of
State of Indonesia Moerdiono.

*************************************

VIENTIANE KPL: DRAFT OF BORDER AGREEMENT DISCUSSED WITH BURMA
March 10, 1997

Vientiane, March 10 (KPl) -- From March 3-7, a draft agreement for
border demarcation between Laos and Myanmar was discussed by
representatives of the two countries.
The discussion focused on drafting an agreement between the government
of the Lao People's Democratic Republic and the government of the Union of
Myanmar for management of the border area.
Leading the Myanmar delegation at the talks was Mr Nyunt Maung Shein,
deputy director general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Union of
Myanmar. The Lao side was led by Mr Oane Phommachak, director of Department
of Treaties and International Law of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
On March 6, the delegation also called on Mr Phongsavat Boupha, deputy
minister of foreign affairs.

*************************************

BKK POST: POLICE 'TO CRACK DOWN ON ILLEGAL WORKERS'
March 17, 1997
Yuwadee Tunyasiri

Immigration authorities and the police will begin cracking down on the
illegal employment of foreign labourers now that the deadline for the
registration of immigrant workers has passed.

National Security Council deputy chief Kachadpai Buruspat said the
authorities concerned have been instructed to strictly enforce the law
governing the employment of illegal immigrants.

The government had agreed to allow the employment of illegal immigrants in
43 provinces provided that the employers registered them between September 1
and November 29, 1996. The deadline was extended to March 15 this year to
allow the officials to complete registration cards for the workers.

Mr Kachadpai said only half of the estimated 700,000 illegal immigrants
registered with the Labour and Social Welfare Department despite the
extended deadline.

As a result, strict legal action will now be taken against the employers and
the workers who have refused to register.

Apart from the employers and their foreign workers, the crackdown will also
be directed at rackets smuggling foreign labourers into the country.

Mr Kachadpai said a large number of foreign labourers had been brought into
the country by these racketeers and drastic action would be taken to prevent
the problem developing into a threat to national security.

"The prime minister considers this problem an urgent matter and officials
concerned will have to come up with effective measures to arrest these
people and send them home," he said. (BP)

*******************************************************

BKK POST: US-ASEAN GROUP BLASTED
March 17, 1997
AP

Burma's government-in-exile criticised a group of United States business
representatives yesterday for lobbying the Clinton administration against
possible economic sanctions against Burma's military government.

In a statement received in Bangkok, the National Coalition Government of the
Union of Burma, a Washington-based group, blasted the US-Asean Business
Council for "trying to sanitise the brutal image of the [Burmese] regime" in
a "desperate" attempt to block sanctions.

The NCGUB is comprised of members of parliament from a 1990 election the
regime ignored.

Fifty American corporate executives, including former Secretary of State
Alexander Haig and Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen, attended a recent meeting in
Singapore of the Business council.

At the meeting, Mr Haig urged the administration not to impose sanctions,
calling those who supported them "arrogant, wrong-headed and short-sighted".(BP)

******************************************************

BKK POST: US MOGULS CREATE IMPRESSION OF GREED
March 17, 1997
Editorial

The US-Asean Business Council went firmly on the record to back trade with
Burma and entry of the Rangoon to Asean. A Singapore meeting of the
influential group also enlisted high-level US politicians to support them.
The Council strongly supported the official Asean policy of constructive
engagement.

The purpose of last week's meeting of the US-Asean Business Council was to
make it clear that America's top business leaders are insensitive,
profit-driven capitalists, willing to trample on human rights and to abandon
any principle if there is a dollar to be made. Or so it seemed, anyhow. The
outpouring of rage against democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi at the group's
Singapore conference was matched only by its intense support for the
military junta which rules Burma.

The volume of support for the Rangoon regime was so great as to be
startling. The head of the council, George David, thought it would be
"terrific" if Burma joined Asean this year. Mr David, who is chairman of
United Technologies Corp, has lobbied the US Congress against imposing
sanctions on Rangoon. Sanctions would "be adverse to the interests of all of
us", he said in Singapore.

Former Republican secretary of state Alexander Haig and former Democratic
treasury secretary Lloyd Bentsen strongly backed the business group. Mr
Haig, who personally imposed and backed sanctions on South Africa, Cuba,
Libya, Iran, Vietnam, North Korea and other countries for republican
presidents, told the businessmen what they wanted to hear: sanctions on
Burma would be "knee-jerk populism". Mr Bentsen, who personally enforced
sanctions on these countries plus Burma for President Clinton, said this of
Mrs Suu Kyi: "We can't govern by the ideas and the recommendations of one
person."

It is usual for such US business groups to pay appearance fees to outsiders.
While the US-Asean Business Council did not announce whether it paid for the
speeches by Mr Haig and Mr Bentsen, the motive for their bipartisan change
of heart since their government service is interesting. neither man said why
he has changed his opinion about economic sanctions.

Their public statements were clearly what the US business leaders wanted to
hear. Reports from the Singapore meeting indicated 100 percent of the
Council members agreed. Participants represented 400 of America's elite
corporations.

Some were merely offensive. Mr Bentsen may not agree with Mrs Suu Kyi, but
in fact she is the elected leader of Burma. Unlike Mr Bentsen, the failed
vice-presidential candidate, she prevailed by a wide margin in a secret,
honest election.

Mr Haig, a failed presidential candidate, shows his contempt for the voters,
with his crack about "knee-jerk populism". Mrs Suu Kyi's election campaign
in Burma was certainly popular; she won. If these two former, appointed
officials have no respect for democratic elections, they should begin at
home to overthrow that system.

Equally offensive was Unocal vice-president William Ichord, who told
colleagues that 'when we started in Thailand 25 governments ago, it wasn't a
nice place either". Equating the brutal Slorc regime of today to the very
worst Thai dictators is absurd. All governments have faults and should
improve. This is far different from saying all governments are equally
brutal to their own citizens.

The corporations which make up the US-Asean Business Council will be judged
by consumers. Fellow members like Pepsi have decided the price of making a
fast buck is too high. Others, like Mr Ichord's Unocal, are plodding ahead
with Burma projects. Such companies needn't fear government sanctions on
Rangoon. Council members should only fear leaving the impression they are so
hungry for profits they will abandon all principles to achieve them. (BP)

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BKK POST: MILITARY RESHUFFLE IMMINENT
March 17, 1997
Wasana Nanuam

Blunder prompts personnel changes

	Fourth Infantry Division Commander Maj-Gen Prayuth Tapcharoen is expected
to be transferred to the Army headquarters during the mid-year military
reshuffle in connection with the cross-border raids by renegade Karen troops.
	Highly placed army sources said Maj-Gen Prayuth would be held responsible
for the attacks carried out last month in Tak by the pro-Rangoon Democratic
Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA).
	Maj-Gen Prayuth is likely to feel the heat after Army Commander-in-Chief
Chettha Thanajaro was reportedly disappointed the Third Army's intelligence
network had failed to provide advance early warning the renegade DKBA would
attack Karen refugee camps in Tak province.
	However, the sources said the Third Army Region Commanding General Thanom
Waraputh will be spared the wrath of the army chief.
	The Defence Ministry's order for the establishment of a joint intelligence
unit to monitor the Thai-Burmese border instead of leaving it to the Third
Army alone had prompted widespread speculation that Lt-Gen Thanom would be
replaced in the mid-year reshuffle.
	But the army sources said Gen Chettha had decided to retain Lt-Gen Thanom
in his present position because he did not want to hurt a former classmate.
Both Gen Chettha and Lt-Gen Thanom are members of the Chulachomklao
Academy's Class 9.
	Gen Chettha announced at a meeting of his subordinates last month that
commanders in direct charge of border areas would be held responsible for
border violations by foreign forces.
	The army sources said in sparing Lt-Gen Thanom, Maj-Gen Prayuth who is
directly in charge of the border force, has to take the blame. The officer
is expected to be replaced by his deputy, Col Chalor Thongsala.
	Except for the likely transfer of Maj-Gen Prayuth, the mid-year reshuffle
which involves 300 military officers features no significant changes. The
reshuffle list, which has already been sent to Prime Minister Chavalit
Yongchaiyudh, is to be announced in the last week of this month.
	The sources said the "Top Five" army generals are expected to stay put
although there was speculation earlier that Second Army Region Commander
General Surayuth Chullanond might be promoted to take one of the posts.
	It was the policy of Gen Chettha not to effect any change at the top level
at present, the sources said, while not ruling out the promotion of Lt-Gen
Surayuth at the annual military reshuffle in October.
	It was also speculated that Armed Forces National Security Centre chief
Thammarak Issarangkura na Ayutthaya will be promoted to full general as a
show of Gen Chavalit's appreciation before his retirement next year.
	The sources said Lt-Gen Thammarat is expected to stay put for the time
being because Gen Chavalit cannot find a trusted man to succeed the officer.
	Armed Forces' Deputy Chief of Staff Chainarong Noonpakdee is likely to be
promoted Armed Forces chief of staff, replacing Orapan Wattanaviboon who is
due to retire at the end of this year. Although highly respected by his
subordinates at the Supreme Command, Gen Chainarong's career has been in
limbo since his role in the "Black May" incident in 1991. (BP)

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RANGOON MYANMAR ALIN: "BELIEVING IN OMENS"
(translated from Burmese, abridged)
March 12, 1997
Article by "a scholar"

"During the reign of King Bagyidaw or Sagaing Min of Konbaung Dynasty, a
sarong belonging to a female commoner, Mae Nu, blown by a whirlwind ended up
on top of a decorative roof of the king's palace. Court Brahmins [advisers
to the king] interpreted the event saying that the country would be in ruins
because of destruction by a woman.  This interpretation was not accepted by
King Bagyidaw who was deceived by sycophantic Brahmins into looking for the
owner of the sarong and honored her by marrying her and making her a queen.
What was the result of this?  Mae Nu, who became the chief queen from a
humble background, brought about so many disasters that the country was
almost in ruins.  Had not King Tharawaddy Min come to the rescue, the
destiny of the country would have been unthinkable. Mae Nu's sarong which
was carried by a whirlwind to the top of the palace and the events that
actually took place may have been a coincidence."
"Before the ascension to the throne in Yadanabon Era by King Thibaw,
the last king of Myanmar [Burma], there was a prophesy:
Earthworm under the log chirps Rice cake cracks in the middle
Distinguished son of a distinguished mother
Shall lead the country to ruin
I need not state whether or not this prophesy came true.  Not only did
the country lay in ruin during his reign, but the entire country was
enslaved."
"While I was pondering these historical events in relation to omens
and prophesies, and wondering why the Myanmar people in the old days
interpret the sayings of children, mad persons, expressions in the market
place and in the theater, a rather unusual event took place in 1986.  As I
do not keep a diary of daily events I cannot recall the exact date, but
there were many eyewitnesses who were present with me when the event took
place.  I recall quite clearly that among those present was a famous woman
writer who won a literary award for writing a book on Myanmar horoscope and
personnel at the National Museum."  [passage omitted]
"I was looking at the royal regalia on display on the ground floor
when I was disturbed by a commotion.  When I went to where the people were
gathering I saw a deranged woman standing at the base of Thihathana Throne
[royal throne of kings of Mandalay] trying to climb up the throne.  She was
heard murmuring plaintive pieces of poem.  The people inside the museum were
first taken by surprise but later realized what was really happening. 
The museum personnel, the security officers, and the people spoke nicely to
the woman and tried to persuade her.  As she was mentally deranged no one
tried to drag her out at first.  However, that woman did not listen and
continued to utter her plaintive piece of poem.  She got worse and tried to
sit on top of the throne.  By that time the people in the museum could no
longer tolerate her and dragged her out of the museum, saying a mad woman
does not deserve the throne.  That woman did not stay still when she got
outside.  She rolled herself on the sidewalk and continued to sing her
plaintive poem.  She said she was the daughter of the king of Yadanabon
[Mandalay] and asked why she was not allowed to sit on the golden throne. 
She then started swearing and finally left when she got tired.
When I got home from the museum I tried to think whether what I had
witnessed could be an omen because a throne is a symbol of sovereign power.
 I wondered what it could mean -- a deranged woman trying to sit on top of
the throne.
Well, after the 1988 events came the Western Madonna or returnee from
Britain [referring to Aung San Suu Kyi] who is mumbling pointlessly about
democracy, attempting to sit on the country's sovereign throne, and
uttering her plaintive poem calling on the world to isolate the country and
impose economic sanctions if her wish is not fulfilled."
"After analyzing these events, I feel the 1986 occurrence involving
the deranged woman attempting to sit on the throne at the National Museum is
a premonition of the present Western Madonna problem.  If my assumption is
correct, the Western Madonna's future looks very worrisome.  Well, back in
1986 museum officials and the people had to drag the deranged woman out of
the museum; now too if the premonition is true the Western Madonna will
definitely have a very grim finale."
"How grim will the finale be?" I curiously asked.
"If the Western Madonna continues her plaintive poem -- calls to
impose economic sanctions against Myanmar, urging tourists to boycott
Myanmar for gross human rights abuses, discouraging investments, and urging
severe actions against the country -- and attempts to gain sovereign power
which resembles a throne by means of a shortcut -- responsible personnel and
the people will definitely drag the Western Madonna out of our mother
country Myanmar in the near future."
A very practical and scientific man who did not believe in omens and
prophesies before made the above prophesy.

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NLM:MINISTER FOR NPED RECEIVES ASIAN CHEMICAL INDUSTRY STUDY TEAM 
March 15, 1997

     YANGON, 14 March - Minister for National Planning and Economic
Development Brig-Gen Abel received Asian Chemical Industry Study
Team led by Senior Managing Director Mr Yasushi Kajiwara of Tosoh
Corporation at his office at 10 am today. Leader of the mission and members
said that they came, here to study establishment of chemical industries in
three countries- Philippines, Vietnam arrd Myanmar-for economic cooperation.
They went on to say that; Japanese entrepreneurs wish to cooperate in
chemical industry in Myanmar, adding that they wanted to know' about the
situation in Myanmar and economic prospects.    Minister Brig-Gen Abel
poin,ted out that priorities should be given to some sectors according to
Fiveyear Economic Plan and explained what sectors they could cooperate in He
also replied to the questions of the guests. 
     _____________________________________
     http://www.myanmar.com/nlm/     

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