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Burma's ethnic rebels may renege on
Subject: Burma's ethnic rebels may renege on ceasefires (fwd)
BANGKOK, March 16 (Reuter) - Recent skirmishes between a
major rebel group and Burmese troops may start to unravel
ceasefire deals between Rangoon and more than a dozen ethnic
rebel armies, diplomatic, Thai and rebel sources said on Sunday.
At least 100 ethnic Wa and Burmese fighters have been killed
over the past few months in skirmishes between the guerrillas of
the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and government troops in
northeastern Burma, Thai and Wa sources said on Sunday.
The UWSA was one of the first and regarded as the strongest
among the 15 ethnic rebel groups that reached loosely-formed
ceasefire accords with Burma's State Law and Order Restoration
Council (SLORC) after the junta seized power in 1988.
Rangoon-based diplomats said if the Wa and other rebel
groups decided to resume fighting it could spark wider unrest in
the country among democracy supporters, peasants and students.
The Wa, former headhunters who were the rank and file of the
Communist Party of Burma's military wing, mutinied against their
communist leaders in 1989 and agreed to a ceasefire with SLORC
in exchange for autonomy in their Shan state strongholds.
But recently the UWSA has clashed with Burmese troops in the
eastern region of the country, sources on the border said.
``The UWSA defied the Burmese demand to withdraw from Doi
Lang and other jungle bases that used to belong to Khun Sa and
fighting has resumed,'' a Thai security source who monitors the
border situation told Reuters.
Doi Lang was a stronghold of Khun Sa, the opium warlord who
surrendered to Burmese troops last year.
The source cited field reports that at least 100 people from
both sides had been killed during skirmishes in Burma's Mong
Yon, Mong Kok and Doi Lang areas over the past few months.
The UWSA, which used to support Burma in its military
operations against the Wa's arch rival, Khun Sa's Mong Tai Army
(MTA), sent guerrillas to occupy former MTA bases after Khun Sa
surrendered.
Thai and Western anti-narcotics agents say the Wa were the
strongest rival to the MTA for heroin production in Burma -- the
world's largest source of opium and heroin.
Veteran UWSA commander Maha Hsang said although there had
been no serious fighting, minor altercations continued and
full-blown attacks could resume.
``The fighting was halted after the SLORC stopped talking
about our withdrawing from Doi Lang,'' Maha Hsang told Reuters
in a telephone interview from the border.
``Despite the fact that all parties have halted major
military operations I think fighting will resume sooner or
later. Everyone is sitting on a time bomb,'' Haha Hsang said.
He said mistrust between the rebels and the SLORC still
prevailed, so he doubted the UWSA members would fulfill the
SLORC's demand to hand over their weapons by 1999.
Diplomats and analysts in Rangoon have said a major problem
for the SLORC in the coming months is how to deal with ethnic
insurgency -- a problem that has plagued Burma for decades.
The SLORC's main headache in recent years has been the
democracy movement of Nobel peace prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi,
whose National League for Democracy was barred from taking power
after winning a general election in 1990.
The 15 ethnic groups that have signed ceasefire deals with
SLORC still have weapons and control their respective areas.
The Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), another major
rebel faction that signed a deal with the SLORC, is said to be
ready to resume fighting against the SLORC, rebel sources said.
The KIO sent a representative to a gathering of the National
Democratic Front (NDF) -- a newly revived rebel organisation
which fought Burma's military rulers in the 1970s and 1980s.
KIO officials were not available but participants at last
month's NDF meeting said the KIO had common views with UWSA.
``The KIO also predicted that fighting will resume. Nobody
trusts the Burmese so they have decided to hold on to their
weapons,'' Khun Kyaw Oo, who represented the Shan United
Revolution Army (SURA) at the seminar, told Reuters.
The Karen National Union (KNU) -- the only major rebel group
yet to sign a ceasefire deal with the SLORC -- is still waging a
war against Rangoon and has headed up the NDF efforts for a
coordinated attack against the rebels.