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Burma's ethnic rebels may renege on



Subject: Burma's ethnic rebels may renege on ceasefires (fwd)


  	  				 
	 BANGKOK, March 16 (Reuter) - Recent skirmishes between a  
major rebel group and Burmese troops may start to unravel 
ceasefire deals between Rangoon and more than a dozen ethnic 
rebel armies, diplomatic, Thai and rebel sources said on Sunday. 
	 At least 100 ethnic Wa and Burmese fighters have been killed  
over the past few months in skirmishes between the guerrillas of 
the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and government troops in 
northeastern Burma, Thai and Wa sources said on Sunday. 
	 The UWSA was one of the first and regarded as the strongest  
among the 15 ethnic rebel groups that reached loosely-formed 
ceasefire accords with Burma's State Law and Order Restoration 
Council (SLORC) after the junta seized power in 1988. 
	 Rangoon-based diplomats said if the Wa and other rebel  
groups decided to resume fighting it could spark wider unrest in 
the country among democracy supporters, peasants and students. 
	 The Wa, former headhunters who were the rank and file of the  
Communist Party of Burma's military wing, mutinied against their 
communist leaders in 1989 and agreed to a ceasefire with SLORC 
in exchange for autonomy in their Shan state strongholds. 
	 But recently the UWSA has clashed with Burmese troops in the  
eastern region of the country, sources on the border said. 
	 ``The UWSA defied the Burmese demand to withdraw from Doi  
Lang and other jungle bases that used to belong to Khun Sa and 
fighting has resumed,'' a Thai security source who monitors the 
border situation told Reuters. 
	 Doi Lang was a stronghold of Khun Sa, the opium warlord who  
surrendered to Burmese troops last year. 
	 The source cited field reports that at least 100 people from  
both sides had been killed during skirmishes in Burma's Mong 
Yon, Mong Kok and Doi Lang areas over the past few months. 
	 The UWSA, which used to support Burma in its military  
operations against the Wa's arch rival, Khun Sa's Mong Tai Army 
(MTA), sent guerrillas to occupy former MTA bases after Khun Sa 
surrendered. 
	 Thai and Western anti-narcotics agents say the Wa were the  
strongest rival to the MTA for heroin production in Burma -- the 
world's largest source of opium and heroin. 
	 Veteran UWSA commander Maha Hsang said although there had  
been no serious fighting, minor altercations continued and 
full-blown attacks could resume. 
	 ``The fighting was halted after the SLORC stopped talking  
about our withdrawing from Doi Lang,'' Maha Hsang told Reuters 
in a telephone interview from the border. 
	 ``Despite the fact that all parties have halted major  
military operations I think fighting will resume sooner or 
later. Everyone is sitting on a time bomb,'' Haha Hsang said. 
	 He said mistrust between the rebels and the SLORC still  
prevailed, so he doubted the UWSA members would fulfill the 
SLORC's demand to hand over their weapons by 1999. 
	 Diplomats and analysts in Rangoon have said a major problem  
for the SLORC in the coming months is how to deal with ethnic 
insurgency -- a problem that has plagued Burma for decades. 
	 The SLORC's main headache in recent years has been the  
democracy movement of Nobel peace prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, 
whose National League for Democracy was barred from taking power 
after winning a general election in 1990. 
	 The 15 ethnic groups that have signed ceasefire deals with  
SLORC still have weapons and control their respective areas. 
	 The Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), another major  
rebel faction that signed a deal with the SLORC, is said to be 
ready to resume fighting against the SLORC, rebel sources said. 
	 The KIO sent a representative to a gathering of the National  
Democratic Front (NDF) -- a newly revived rebel organisation 
which fought Burma's military rulers in the 1970s and 1980s. 
	 KIO officials were not available but participants at last  
month's NDF meeting said the KIO had common views with UWSA. 
	 ``The KIO also predicted that fighting will resume. Nobody  
trusts the Burmese so they have decided to hold on to their 
weapons,'' Khun Kyaw Oo, who represented the Shan United 
Revolution Army (SURA) at the seminar, told Reuters. 
	 The Karen National Union (KNU) -- the only major rebel group  
yet to sign a ceasefire deal with the SLORC -- is still waging a 
war against Rangoon and has headed up the NDF efforts for a 
coordinated attack against the rebels.