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FEER: Spot the Strongman



Signs of a power struggle within the ruling junta
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By Bertil Lintner in Bangkok

March 20, 1997
This is not divide and rule, it's decimate and rule," Burmese opposition 
leader Aung San Suu Kyi recently told an acquaintance. Arrests of 
members of her party, the National League for Democracy, have risen 
markedly nationwide over the past few weeks. But this time, an increased 
army presence in many towns indicates that it's more than yet another 
crackdown on the NLD: "We see much more of the army now than before, 
when military intelligence officials came and knocked on your door in 
the middle of the night," says a source in Rangoon. 
The stronger army showing, Rangoon-based diplomats say, may be a 
reflection of a power struggle between the country's army chief, Gen. 
Maung Aye, and the intelligence boss, Lt.-Gen. Khin Nyunt, who for years 
was considered Burma's strongman. Opinions vary as to when their rivalry 
escalated into a more serious personality clash, though there's a 
consensus that the ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council is 
divided not over whether to crush the opposition but how best to do so. 

An Asian diplomat suggests that the rift between the two men became 
evident after a highly publicized visit to Burma by American Congressman 
Bill Richardson in February 1994. Richardson was the first nonfamily 
member allowed to see Suu Kyi, then under house arrest in Rangoon. 

In September the same year, Khin Nyunt met Suu Kyi, taking the first 
step towards what could have become a dialogue. "All that was Khin 
Nyunt's idea," the diplomat says. "He basked in publicity, but achieved 
nothing for Slorc. The other generals were quite annoyed with the whole 
thing." 

A Western diplomat argues that the conflict between Khin Nyunt's policy 
of neutralizing opponents through negotiation rather than force was even 
more apparent in dealings with ethnic-Karen rebels in late 1994: "Khin 
Nyunt favoured a more tactful approach, and several rounds of talks were 
held with the rebels near the Thai border. But the military wanted to 
use force." 

The talks led nowhere, so the military launched an offensive. Karen 
headquarters at Manerplaw fell in January 1995, and the rebels have been 
on the defensive ever since. 

Khin Nyunt, meanwhile, has been pushed into the background, and it is 
uncertain how much power he wields today. Significantly, he was not in a 
high-powered delegation that went to Beijing in October to negotiate the 
terms of future cooperation with China. Until then, Khin Nyunt had been 
seen as the architect of Burma's close relationship with China. This 
time, the delegation was headed by Maung Aye and his army chief of 
staff, Lt.-Gen. Tin Oo. 

With Slorc's chairman, Gen. Than Shwe, getting older and more removed 
from day-to-day decision making, Maung Aye is clearly consolidating his 
grip on power. Burmese sources say he is behind the current crackdown on 
the NLD. Adds a Western NGO worker who recently visited Rangoon: "Maung 
Aye is sending his boys out to finish off the opposition. They're 
everywhere now." 

Since December, 28 members of the NLD's youth wing have been rounded up, 
along with 42 older members and 56 others, according to a list compiled 
by the League. Sweeps against the NLD have been reported from places as 
diverse as Mandalay, Pegu, the Irrawaddy delta, Yawnghwe in Shan state 
and the Kachin state capital of Myitkyina. 

Among those targeted in Rangoon is Than Nyein, a doctor and prominent 
NLD organizer. He also happens to be the brother of Khin Nyunt's wife, 
Khin Win Shwe. Than Nyein has had his medical licence revoked for 
"operating an unlicensed clinic." Although his relationship to Khin 
Nyunt may be coincidental, the move has nevertheless embarrassed the 
intelligence chief. 

Cautious observers stress that the government has so far maintained a 
remarkable unity, overriding serious internal disagreements. Despised by 
the majority of Burmese, its unity is precious to its survival. So is 
its military muscle. 

The strength of the armed forces has increased from about 185,000 before 
the 1988 pro-democracy uprising to more than 300,000 today. At the same 
time, Burma's military-intelligence apparatus has grown from 17 
battalions in 1988 to at least 21 today, supported by a network of 
thousands of neighbourhood informants. "But their duty is also to spy on 
the military, and to detect dissent within the ranks," says a Western 
military analyst. "Khin Nyunt's military intelligence has become a state 
within the state, and that's not tolerated in Burma." 

That, combined with his general muscle-flexing and publicity-seeking, 
hasn't made Khin Nyunt popular with Maung Aye's professional military. 
Or, as a Western military analyst put it: "Slorc is no longer the 
monolith it used to be." For the first time, Burma watchers are 
witnessing a serious power struggle within the regime. And judging from 
recent developments, Khin Nyunt is on the losing side.