Burma's Military Grips Nation Tight

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Subject: Burma's Military Grips Nation Tightly

                             Reuters World Service

                        March  10, 1997, Monday, BC cycle

HEADLINE: FEATURE -  Burma  military government grips nation tightly

BYLINE: By Deborah Charles

DATELINE: MANDALAY,  Burma,  March 11

   The soldiers chant loudly as they conduct pre-dawn marches and drills around 
Mandalay Fort in the centre of the city.

   They are a visible reminder that despite the commercial bustle of  Burma's 
second city, the military is still in complete control -- in Mandalay, in the
capital Rangoon and throughout  Burma

   "The situation here is very bad," said a well-known Burmese writer who asked 
not to be identified. "This is worse than a fascist regime."

   "They shut our mouths, they shut our eyes and make people hear everything
they want them to hear," the writer said. "They are watching everything we do.
They know you have come to see me and may ask me why, and what I said to you."
 
GOVERNMENT TIGHTENS GRIP WHILE APPEARING TO OPEN UP

   Many complain that the ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC)
is tightening control over citizens and, at the same time, making it appear as
if it is opening up to the rest of the world.

   This is "Visit  Myanmar  Year," with the government seeking to open its
once-isolated nation up to foreign visitors and their hard currency.

   Yet since the tourism year began in November, the government has continued to
move against the opposition movement led by Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu
Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) party.

   "There is severe repression of the NLD and the forces working for democracy,"
Suu Kyi told a news conference last week. "The situation is getting worse
all

the time. This is persecution of the NLD," she said, after outlining arrests and
intimidation tactics used by the SLORC against NLD members.

   The SLORC regularly accuses Suu Kyi and members of her NLD party of trying to
incite unrest and destabilise the country, and says the actions it has taken are
meant to maintain control.

   The SLORC also closed all the major universities across the country in
December after suppressing a series of rare student street demonstrations. It is
not known when they will reopen.
 
TERRORIST ATTACKS WORRY GOVERNMENT

   The military presence in Rangoon has been stepped up recently as the
government fears possible terrorist attacks by ethnic guerrilla groups it
accused of setting off two bombs at a Buddhist shrine on Christmas Day.

   In the capital, cars navigate around barricades set up in the middle of the
streets.

   Drivers cast sideways glances at tanks parked in the streets and at soldiers 
armed with machine-guns who stand guard every few metres on the capital's
main

roads.

   "They (the ethnic rebels) can plant bombs at any time," a senior military
official said when asked about the heightened security. "We have to be aware of 
the threat to our security."

   Diplomats said the government is worried about threats posed by rebel groups 
such as the Karen National Union (KNU) -- the only major ethnic group yet to
sign a ceasefire agreement with the SLORC and still fighting for autonomy.

   An adviser to KNU hardline leader Bo Mya told Reuters last week that the
guerrillas planned to step up attacks in key cities such as Rangoon and Mandalay
after the SLORC vowed to keep troops at the Thai-Burmese border after recent
fighting.

   "For the SLORC now, the most important thing is to keep security because they
need foreign investment. I think the SLORC will try to keep security by using
any means they have to," one Asian diplomat said.

    Burma  is not only opening up to tourism, it is also trying to encourage
foreign investment. 
   Despite pleas from Suu Kyi to foreigners not to bring money to  Burma  until 
the regime improves its human rights record and begins talks with the
opposition, foreign investment is rising.

   Some $6.03 billion worth of foreign projects have been approved by the
government since it opened up the economy after seizing power in 1988.

   But economists estimate only about half of that has actually been invested as
some investors, uneasy over threats of U.S. economic sanctions and other
international pressure on the SLORC, await more political and economic stability
before starting operations.
 
FUTURE STILL UNCERTAIN

   Right now the situation is still uncertain, analysts say, with several
different elements bubbling at the same time.

   "It's like many different piles of gunpowder spread out," the writer said.
"If one explodes it could ignite the rest."

   Others agree, noting there are some signs of unrest, that students, peasants 
and even Buddhist monks -- a key element to the national pro-democracy

uprisings in 1988 -- may decide to get involved in protests against the
military.

   "It could just take one thing," a diplomat said. "If the SLORC can keep all
the different elements happy there is no problem, but if it explodes you don't
know what could happen."

   "We're definitely not going to see dialogue (between Suu Kyi and the SLORC)
any time soon," an Asian diplomat said. "I don't think anything else is going to
happen right away but we are all waiting to see."