The BurmaNet News February 15, 1997

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"Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies"
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The BurmaNet News: February 15, 1997
Issue #639

HEADLINES:
==========
BURMA RELIEF: BORDER UPDATE
BKK POST: RETREATING KARENS BURN HEADQUARTERS
THE NATION: KAREN ON RUN AS RANGOON UPS OFFENSIVE
THE NATION: AN 'EXCHANGE OF VIEWS' ON BURMA
KNU: PRESS RELEASE- DIALOGUE BROKEN DOWN BY SLORC
ABSDF: CALL FOR IMMEDIATE CONDEMNATION OF SLORC
THE NATION: ASEAN AS A FORCE OF 10 IN FOCUS
THE NATION: BURMA AND CAMBODIA GET MORE NEIGHBOURLY
AFP: SINGAPORE-OPPOSITION PARTIES DEMAND END TO MILITARY
RANGOON RADIO MYANMAR: NLD MP U MAW NI RESIGNS
THE NATION: RANGOON FED UP WITH TALKING PEACE
BKK POST:EU UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT BURMESE ROLE IN ASEM
NATION: NARONGCHAI CANCELS BURMA TRIP 
DVB: PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT
------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

BURMA RELIEF: BORDER UPDATE
February 14, 1997
brelief@xxxxxxx

Last night, Feb. 14, SLORC shelled Nawbotawa camp (all spellings phonetic),
located on the Burma side.  Normal population is said to be around 3,000
refugees, but they had been joined by another 2,000 new arrivals fleeing the
SLORC offensive.  Thai border police would not allow these approximately
5,000 refugees to enter the Thai village of Talathaw, so that the people
have scattered in a panic from the shelling and are sheltering in the
forest.  There are
hundreds of SLORC and DKBO troops in the area. The border check point is closed.

***********************************

BKK POST: RETREATING KARENS BURN HEADQUARTERS
February 14, 1997 
Supamart Kasem, Gifford Palgrave and AP, Tak

Burmese troops were poised yesterday to seize the Karen National Union's
jungle headquarters after the Karen rebels burned down and retreated from
their camp in the face of overwhelming government forces.Burmese gunners
also shelled a Karen refugee camp in Ban Klaa Thaw, Tambon
Mae Chan of Umphang district - which is about six kilometres from the border.

Several 82mm mortar rounds fell in and around the Noh Ka Thaw Wah camp,
forcing over 3,000 Karen civilians and about 200 Thai villagers to evacuate
deeper inland.

The Karen refugees fled to the Thai village just a few days ago, shortly
ahead of Burmese attacks on KNU headquarters in Htee Ka Pler, and two other
camps, Htee Soki and Sakhantit.

Field military and police reports said Burmese gunners heavily shelled the
KNU jungle headquarters at Htee Ka Pler with artillery and mortar shells
yesterday while the defending rebels also responded with mortar fire.

The bombardment of Htee Ka Pler came one day after Burmese troops seized the
Ban Mai black market and a forward operational base of the KNU's 6th
Division at Htee Soki.

The reports said the Karen defenders were ordered to retreat from Htee Ka
Pler headquarters under intense bombardment. But before the retreat,
therebels burned down all shelters and building structures to prevent them from
falling into Burmese hands.

The reports said Burmese troops laid siege to Htee Ka Pler and were expected
to overrun the deserted camp in about six hours.

Col Isaac, a Karen officer, said by telephone that about 500 Karen rebels
had been struggling to hold their main base against about 1,500 Burmese troops.

The Karens fell back rather than lose men in a vain defence and torched the
base, said the colonel.

"We didn't want to leave the Burmese anything," he said.

"We have completely changed our tactics. We are fighting a hit-and-run
guerrilla war now."

Col Isaac said the Karen fighters would not retreat into Thailand.

"We are determined to stay in Burma," he said, adding "troop morale is high,
but losing territory is not a concern because we are fighting a guerrilla
war."Karen sources claimed 10 government soldiers had been killed in the
past few days, while there have been no Karen casualties.

Burmese military officials said the number of their casualties and troops
involved in the operation would not be available until it was over.

The jungle clearing served as the headquarters of Gen Bo Mya, KNU president
and military commander, and was the site of a January 31 celebration marking
the 48th anniversary of the Karen revolt against Burma's central government.

The loss of the headquarters could amount to a serious military setback for
the Karens.

Rebel sources said the unexpected offensive came less than two weeks after
Rangoon despatched a 12-man delegation to Htee Ka Pler on January 31 for a
new round of truce talks with the KNU.

"This clearly shows that Slorc is not sincere in settling problems
peacefully," said a rebel officer.

The KNU is the last major ethnic group that has not signed a ceasefire
agreement with the Slorc, despite four rounds of negotiations.At the last
round of talks it was agreed that the negotiations should continue.

The Noh Ka Thaw Wah refugee camp was totally deserted yesterday. But despite
assurances from Thai officials that it was safe for the Karen refugees to
return, they were reluctant to do so.

The small village of Ban Klaw Thaw in Tambon Mae Chan has suddenly become an
impromptu refugee camp with piles of belongings surrounding houses in the
village and scores of people sleeping on floors. (BP)

*************************************

THE NATION: KAREN ON RUN AS RANGOON UPS OFFENSIVE
February 14, 1997
Yindee Lertcharoenchok 

KEEPING its pledge to crush Karen rebels, the Burmese Army yesterday pressed
on with its full scale offensive forcing the guerrillas to gradually abandon
their strongholds and driving another 15,000 Karen refugees into northern
Thailand. 

The Burmese operation against the Karen National Union's (KNU) 6th Brigade,
which began on Tuesday ­ the very same day the Burmese junta informed
Thailand of its decision to use force against the rebel group ­ is the
largest since a successful offensive in Jan 1996 which captured the former
KNU headquarters at Manerplaw. 

Already close to 20,000 Karen civilians have fled over the past three days
into Tak province's Umphang district, which houses about 8,000 refugees of
earlier Burmese attacks and harassment. 

Karen and Thai officials have estimated that about 4,500 Burmese troops from
the 33rd, 44th, 65th, 66th, 77th, 88th and 101st divisions, fully equipped
with powerful weapons, are being mobilised for assaults from the North and
West. 

On Tuesday, Burmese forces from another two divisions left Mergui and Tavoy
in southern Burma by boat, disembarked opposite Thailand's Kanchanaburi
province and are now marching northwards to launch an attack from the South. 

According to the officials, Burmese troops had swept through several
civilian villages in their attack from the West against the Sakanthit
outpost, forcing villagers to flee to Thailand for safety. KNU forces active
in the area gradually withdrew and the Burmese forces took full control of
the stronghold, which also operates as a market place, around noon yesterday. 

At about 1 pm yesterday, the Burmese troops began attacking from the North,
using heavy mortar and artillery fire to shell Tee Kla Pler, the supposed
KNU headquarters opposite the Thai village of Nong Luang, and Baan Mai Ta
Waw Saw in Burma, opposite Baan Noh Pah Taw Wah. 

While Thai officials said two of the mortars fell close to Noh Pah Taw Wah
refugee camp, Karen refugee officials said about 10 fell in the vicinity of
the camp. 

Karen and Thai officials said KNU troops, who have turned to mobile
guerrilla tactics since the loss of Manerplaw, did not try to defend the two
camps and gradually retreated after burning them down. Assaults by ground
troops were sporadic as KNU forces tried to avoid direct confrontation. 

In Bangkok, Thai Army chief Gen Chettha Thanajaro said the situation on the
Thai side, as a result of the fighting in Burma, was not as tense as reported. 

He said Thailand will only allow fleeing women, children and elderly people
into the country and will use force to expel any foreign armed troops. 

The Burmese junta told Thai authorities on Tuesday that it decided to use
force against the KNU because the armed ethnic group had rejected its peace
overtures. (TN)

************************************************

THE NATION: AN 'EXCHANGE OF VIEWS' ON BURMA
February 14, 1997

Singapore - Ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (Asean)
and the European Union (EU) managed yesterday to narrow their differences on
the controversial Burma issue, including an agreement to allow one sentence
in the joint declaration on the 12th Asean-EU Ministerial Meeting today.

The document contains only one sentence stating the two groupings "had an
exchange of views on Myanmar [Burma]". This followed extensive discussions
earlier in a two-day meeting of senior officials and yesterday's ministerial
meeting. One senior official said the EU had wanted to use the name "Burma
rather and "Myanmar".

Singapore' Foreign Minister S Jayakumar said that Asean and the EU had one
of their most frank discussions on Burma.

"The discussions went on for some two hours. At the end both sides
unanimously agreed that this was one of the most productive and substantial
discussions held and everyone was very satisfied," he said.

The ministers gave their respective views on Burma, how they see the country
and when it should join Asean, Jayakumar said.

Jayakumar had earlier said that for Burma to join Asean would depend on its
readiness and ability to participate in the Asean Free Trade Area (Afta). He
said the timing could be "two months, four months ... two years or three years".

The Singaporean host defended Asean's stance on human rights, saying the
body has succeeded for more than 30 years and the region has become one of
the world's most successful areas of development. He said although Asean
does not have a homogeneous legal system, it instead has a system of
governments which are very diverse but has still evolved into a single
united group.

Regarding the human rights issue, he said the most important thing is not to
say one side is right and the other is wrong. "We are discussing this with a
greater understanding of each others' position," he said.

In September 1994, a joint declaration after the 11th ministerial meeting in
Karlsruhe, Germany, reflected that there had been some positive developments
as far as Burma was concerned.

The two sides then hoped that Asean's policy of constructive engagement in
critical dialogue would eventually contribute to more sustainable
improvements in all fields.

It was a positive statement coming soon after the release of Burmese
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. But EU members have said that since then
the situation in Burma has not improved.

The final document reflected determination by both sides to take action to
deepen and diversify relationships in a dynamic fashion covering various fields.

The joint declaration reiterated the two side's position to support existing
mechanisms, such as ministerial meetings to continue to help improve
relevant situations between them. It reflected cooperation in politics and
security, as well as people-to-people contact. (TN)

*******************************

KNU: PRESS RELEASE- DIALOGUE BROKEN DOWN BY SLORC OFFENSIVE
February 12, 1997

OFFICE OF THE SUPREME HEADQUATERS KAREN NATIONAL UNION
                                     KAWTHOOLEI

Dialogue broken down by SLORC's new offensive against KNU.

To solve the country's political problem by political means, the Karen
National Union (KNU) has held official talks with the State Law and Order
Restoration Council (SLORC) three times, from December 1995 to November
1996. Therefore, within one years we, the KNU, have already held talks with
the SLORC seven times to create genuine peace.

During talks in November 1996, we demanded SLORC not to use military force
to solve the problems between us, and to make a cease-fire and discuss
ethnic affairs, union affairs and peace, to draw democratic lines and
respective principle for both groups after a cease-fire. The SLORC demanded
that KNU had to announce to give up their armed struggle, sign a cease-fire
agreement, draw democratic lines  for both sides, achieve the development of
the Karen State together with the SLORC, attend and observe the National
Convention, and promise to lay down KNU's arms after the new constitution is
completed.

The chairman of the KNU replied to the SLORC's chairman on 31 December, 1996
saying that it was impossible for the KNU to lay down their arms to the
SLORC and return to the legal fold after the new constitution. This was
because this would mean the Karen would surrender to the SLORC. The KNU
would also not attend and participate in the National Convention because the
Karen recognise it as  a  shame like other ethnic groups do.  The KNU is
unable to know if all the Karen people in the country will accept the new
constitution or not. That is why the KNU has urged the SLORC to consider on
three main points proposed by the KNU. 

The SLORC sent a peace delegation to the KNU HQ on 31 January, 1997 and they
informed us that if the KNU doesn't give up its armed struggle and returned
to the legal fold, the SLORC military intelligence department will stop the
talks. Consequently, if the talks stop it was very hard to know how the
SLORC will respond to the KNU. If the SLORC does make a new offensive
against KNU, unavoidable, we the KNU will have to defend ourselves. However,
the KNU urged the delegation to reconsider what the KNU proposed in its
three main points. The KNU told the delegation  that the KNU would like to
continue the dialogue for the peace of the country.

Under these circumstance, the SLORC has broken down the dialogue process at
the beginning of February, 1997 in different KNU areas. The SLORC is now
using division No.88, Division No. 44, Division No. 22 and Division No.11 in
Karen area (One Division consisting of 10 Regiments). They are using local
people and prisoners as porters. When the SLORC started to launch a new
offensive against the KNU,  local Karen people abandoned their villages
because they were down by SLORC troops and the Karen were forced to become
porters for the SLORC. On 11 February, 1997, Chukali and Quee Hata Hoe
villages were burnt to the ground by the SLORC's troops and tens of thousand
of Karen people are now fleeing into Thailand for refuge.

The SLORC has created a shame dialogue and a shame peace process and now
launches an unjust war against the Karen people. It is clear that the SLORC
does not want genuine dialogue and peace in the country. We the KNU firmly
believe that future consequences are the responsibility of the SLORC.

The current brutal military offensive against the KNU launched by the SLORC
will have an effect on the cease-fire agreements between SLORC and other
ethnic armed groups, in which the SLORC will lose the trust of the various
ethnic nationalities.

The KNU appeal to all of our alliance, democratic forces and revolutionary
organizations and political parties to oppose the SLORC hand in hand with us.

We appeal to the international community and Governments to strongly oppose
the SLORC brutal military regime and  to support the Karen people who are
fleeing into Thailand.
 
CENTRAL COMMITTEE
KAREN NATIONAL UNION
		
*************************************************

ABSDF: CALL FOR IMMEDIATE CONDEMNATION OF SLORC
lurie@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
February 14, 1997

8.8.88 Camp, Tenesserim Division, Burma - February 14, 1997
Thousands of refugees are pouring into Thailand as Burma's military junta
-State Law and Order Restoration Council (Slorc) intensifies its attacks on
refugee camps and bases of the democratic forces and ethnic nationalities at
the Thai-Burma border.

While the attack on the areas under the control of the 6th Brigade of the
Karen National Union is in full swing, a new front has been opened by the
Slorc Army against the KNU's 4th Brigade opposite Kanchanaburi in Thailand.

The KNU 4th Brigade controls areas around the controversial gas pipeline
being constructed by Slorc, UNOCAL and Total and their partners.

The attack on the 4th Brigade areas began on February to but largely went
unreported because of simultaneous raids on other areas closer to the Thai
border. The latest round of offensive against ethnic nationalities has
already seen an influx of new refugees into Thailand.

The Slorc Army is also preparing to launch attacks in other southern border
areas. People are abandoning their villages and fleeing into areas near Thap
Sakae in Thailand. The 8.8.88 Camp run by the All Burma Students' Democratic
Front ( ABSDF) and the camps controlled by the Mon and Muslim freedom
fighters are already feeding newly arrived refugees.

In a statement today, ABSDF Chairman Dr. Naing Aung lashed out against the
brutal offensive launched by the Burmese army against democracy and ethnic
groups on the Thai-Burma border.

"The offensive by the Slorc Army is directed at crushing Democracy
organizations and ethnic groups along the Thai border. As it stands now,
Slorc troops have forced tens of thousands of refugees across the border
into Thailand and are fighting soldiers of the Karen National Union.

"The KNU has been seeking a peaceful, political settlement with Slorc when
the surprise offensive began," stated Naing Aung "I am calling on the
international community to condemn this barbaric behavior."

Dr. Naing Aung also stated that despite the Slorc offensive, the democracy
movement is stronger than ever. "This is an act of desperation by Slorc. The
ongoing political upheaval by thousands of people in Rangoon and throughout
Burma is proof that despite the violent force of Slorc's heavy hand, they
will never be able to crush the desire of millions of Burmese and ethnics to
live
free in democracy," he stated.

Dr.Naing Aung called on students, civil servants, monks and soldiers in the
Burma army loyal to the democracy movement to oppose Slorc through the use
of non-violent political defiance activities  "Despite Slorc's weapons, the
people have given Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and National for Democracy their
hearts and souls . There is no regime that can last without the support of
the people, that is why Slorc's days are numbered. The time to step up our
defiance of the regime is now upon us. We must now, using non-violent
tactics, face down the cowards terrorizing to subdue the millions of Burmese
and ethnics yearning to be free."

ALL BURMA STUDENTS' DEMOCRATIC FRONT [ABSDF]

*****************************************************************

THE NATION: ASEAN AS A FORCE OF 10 IN FOCUS
February 14, 1997

A WORKING group of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) will
meet next week in Pattaya, Chon Buri to map out a strategy that will allow
Burma, Cambodia and Laos to join the regional organisation. 

The Feb 21 to 22 meeting, the sixth since the creation of the working group,
is likely to recommend that the three observer countries be integrated into
Asean some time this year. 

But an informed source said that the working group, headed by a senior
official from the Asean Secretariat in Jakarta, will also take into
consideration the outcome of ongoing talks between Asean and European Union
foreign ministers in Singapore. 

Although Asean members have adhered to a policy of non-interference in
Burma's internal affairs, international concern over the political situation
in Burma has led to Asean's reluctance to publicly announce when Burma will
be welcomed. The West has repeatedly expressed strong opposition to Burma
joining the association. 

The source said that while Asean is also concerned with the ongoing
political turmoil in Burma, it is unlikely that its seven members will turn
down the ruling junta's membership request. 

Asean countries agree that Burma is, in terms of preparation, more ready
than Cambodia and Laos to meet many of the qualifications of membership,
including fluent ability in English, which is the language of Asean
communication, said the source. (TN)

************************************

THE NATION: BURMA AND CAMBODIA GET MORE NEIGHBOURLY
February 14, 1997

The two Asean hopefuls have much in common, squeezed as they are and hounded
by bad press.

Cambodia, keen to balance the power of its influential neighbours Vietnam
and Thailand, is casting its eye towards Burma as a new and possibly more
sympathetic regional ally.

Govenrment officials point to lingering border and immigration problems
with Vietnam and to unresolved "complications" with Thailand, which for
years turned a blind eye as its businessmen did gem and logging business
with Khmer Rouge guerrillas.

"We need Burma to balance our relations with our larger more dominant
neighbours," commented one high ranking foreign affairs officials.

Second Prime Minister Hun Sen, playing a front role in the latest round of
diplomatic and political talks between Cambodia and Burma, visited Rangoon
for four days of official visit between Jan 28-31.

Hun Sen's delegation of defence, agriculture and tourism officials for his
Cambodia People's Party (CPP), met the chairman of Burma's Slorc Gen Than
Shwe and other officials.

Hun Sen said the three recent official exchange visits between Burma and
Cambodia in recent months were a "good sign at a time when the two countries
are moving towards becoming (Asean) members".

Hun Sen said his visit came in response to an initiation from Than Shwe who
he described as "head of state, head of govnerment, defence minister and
head of general staff... an important man." The second prime minister said
before his departure that cultural exchange agreements would be signed and
that talks would be held on the implementation of tourism agreements, signed
by Prince Norodom Ranariddh during an earlier visit.

Diplomats said Cambodia and Burma, who re-established diplomat relations 18
months ago after a 20-year break, have similar histories which draw them
together.

"They are able to discuss problems they have both shared, and in some cases
still share, with Thailand's involvement with insurgent groups along their
borders," said one ambassador.

Also likely top have been on the agenda in Burma was Asean's recent decision
to group Cambodia, Burma and Laos together for simultaneous entry into the
Asean family at an unspecified time in the future, govenrment officials said.

Originally scheduled to join the important regional grouping in July,
Cambodia was disappointed by what some official claim is an attempt by Asean
members to hide Burma's controversial Asean entry behind the cloak of
Cambodia and Laos.

"Simultaneous entry for the there countries into Asean will make it more
difficult for Western countries to protest the entry of Burma into Asean,"
one Asian diplomat pointed out.

Cambodia's opposition leader and prominent Hun Sen critic, Sam Rainsy,
condemned the second prime minister's visit to Burma, labelling it s "an
insult against democracy movements not only in Burma but in the whole of Asia."

Rainsy, who led street protests against the visit of Than Shwe to Cambodia
in October, said Cambodia had a lot to lose and little to gain from closer
ties with Burma.

"The only ties which can be  developed are drugs and arms sales and
laundering of dirty Burmese money through Cambodia," said Rainsy.

The opposition leader claims at least one "false" bank in Cambodia is
involved in phoney "development" projects in Burma, as part of a money
laundering operation.

CPP cabinet chief, Sok An, who accompanied Hun Sen to Burma, claims however
the Burma's international image however the Burma's international image
problems are unlikely to tarnish Cambodia's own image abroad.

"It is normal regional neighbour to neighbour relations.. human rights in
Burma are a Western fad.

We have our own problems without look into conditions inside other
countries," another official added. (TN)

************************************

AFP: SINGAPORE-OPPOSITION PARTIES DEMAND END TO MILITARY RULE IN BURMA  
February 12, 1997

Singapore opposition parties urged the European Union and the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Wednesday  to persuade Burma's military
junta to restore civilian rule.
The Workers' Party and the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) said ASEAN
should not admit Burma until the junta  promises to restore democracy
"within a stated time."
The call came in a joint statement on the 50th anniversary of the Burmese
union and ahead of a meeting here  this week of foreign ministers from the
EU and ASEAN.
The two parties said the EU and ASEAN should prevail on Burma's rulers to
restore civilian rule, establish the rule of law and the freedom of its
people to elect a government of their choice and take immediate steps to hold
free elections.
"We particularly urge the ASEAN member states to require the military
government to give an assurance to implement the above within a stated time
before consideration can be given to admitting Burma into ASEAN,"
they said. 
Similar statements are expected to be issued by political parties in Kuala
Lumpur, Manila, Bangkok, Phnom Penh, Tokyo, Sydney and New Delhi.
Burma is a potential future member of ASEAN, which groups Brunei, Malaysia,
the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
ASEAN leaders have rejected Western calls to isolate Burma, and maintain a
policy of "constructive engagement" with its military junta, which has
refused to honor the victory of pro-democracy forces in 1990 elections and
has been accused of rampant human rights violations. Burma is expected to be
a contentious issue at the two-day ASEAN-EU meeting starting Thursday.

*************************************

RANGOON RADIO MYANMAR: NLD MP U MAW NI RESIGNS
February 11, 1997 (translated from Burmese)

U Maw Ni of the National League for Democracy [NLD], an elected member of
the People's Assembly in Yesagyo Township Constituency-1, Magwe Division,
during the Multiparty Democratic General Elections, has of his own volition
submitted his resignation, citing health and social reasons for withdrawing
as elected representative. In accordance with Section 11, Subsection E of the
People's Assembly Election Law, the Multiparty Democratic General Election
Commission has accepted U Maw Ni's resignation, effective today. 

***************************************

THE NATION: RANGOON, FED UP WITH TALKING PEACE, RETURNS TO WARRING
February 14, 1997 (abridged)
Aung Zaw

Army leaders are certain that the Karen are dragging their feet on peace
negotiations and have turned to military action. Aung Zaw reports.

Throughout January, Burma's military regime, the State Law and Order
Restoration Council [Slorc]ordered pro-government Karen rebels and its own
troops to raid Karen refugee camps along the border and inside Thailand.

Then, just before Burma celebrated Union Day on Feb 12, the junta, which has
been engaged in "peace talks" with the Karen insurgents, made it?s move. 

Thousands of Burmese soldiers arrived at Karen-controlled areas though not
to commemorate the Union Day with their Karen brothers. 

A few days ago, hundreds of army trucks arrived at Htee That Le area, south
of Myawaddy border town. The fully-equipped Burmese soldiers, supported by
more than 2,000 porters carrying mortars, machineguns, and heavy artillery
pieces with the KNU. They are preparing to launch a new offensive. Moreover,
approximately 150 pro-Slorc Karen rebels accompanied the troops.

"They have been heading toward the Karen-controlled area and headquarters,"
said a source in Mae Sod. The ground troops also had air support, he added.

According to a well-informed source in Umpang area, on Feb 13 Burmese troops
entered inner circle of the KNU headquarters. "But they are moving slowly
because our defence - ambushes and mines", said a Karen source.

Another Karen source reported  that the Burmese troops took over Mae Tha
Raw Hta area where only a month ago an ethnic nationalities seminar was held.

That meeting was attended by Chin, Karenni, Karen, Kachin, Pa-O, Shan and Wa
minorities. Kachin, Mon and the Wa representatives, who have ceasefire
agreements with the Slorc, also attended. It was believed that the Slorc was
quite upset with the seminar. 

"For them (Slorc), it is time to put down the Karens because they made so
much noise", said a trader in Mae Sod.

Since 1995, the Karens have been plagued with problems. The KNU has been
split by a mutiny with the slinter group, the Democratic Karen Buddhist
Association, turning to the Slorc for financial and military support.
Subsequently, KNU's well-fortified hill-top outposts, Manerplaw and Kawmoora
were captured by the govnerment troops. 

Talks between Slorc and KNU have gone nowhere. As a result, the offensive is
"is a win-win situation" for Rangoon, said a border-based  analysts. The KNU
is believed to still have at least 2,000 men under arms. 

"If they attack us we have to defend ourselves, but we can no longer be
traditional warfare but guerrilla warfare", said a senior Karen leader. 

Just before the offensive, Burma's powerful military intelligence chief and
secretary one of Slorc, Lt Gen Khin Nyunt, said his government was still
patiently waiting in good faith for the remaining armed groups in the jungle
to talk peace. 

So why the offensive? Has Lt Gen Khin Nyunt run out of his patience?
"It seems Slorc is going to get peace in Karen state through military
means," joked a Burmese in Mae Sod. 

Four months ago, representatives of KNU and Slorc met in Moulmein for
ceasefire talks. It was a fourth and last meeting between the two sides.

The outcome of that meeting was not very good. A reliable source said that
Lt Gen Khin Nyunt, who initiated a dozen of ceasefire talks with armed ethnic
rebels, seemed disappointed with the Karen. He reportedly said: "The KNU was
closer to the peace before - but now they are far from it." 

The main stumbling block was the Karen's demand to discuss political issues.

"To date, no discussion has taken place to address the existing political
problems in Burma," Padoe Mahn Sha, KNU's joint secretary, said. So far 15
armed ethnic groups have reached ceasefire agreements with Slorc but the
senior Karen leader said he doesn't see Slorc allowing discussion on
political issues.

Later the regime presented a six-point demands: That the KNU make an
official announcement that it has abandoned it armed struggle and returned
to the legal fold; that it  cease fighting, join with Slorc to work for
development projects; observe the ongoing Slorc-sponsored National
Convention; and promise to surrender its arms after the new constitution is
completed.

For the KNU, these were impossible demands. 

Said Padoe Mahn Sha, "It is impossible to agree - we cannot abandon armed
struggle and return to the "legal fold", if we do it means we are surrendering.

Further, the national convention itself is not legitimate the Karen leader
said. "It is just a sham, we cannot attend as an observer," he said. 

"Also, how can we promise in advance to surrender our weapons because we
still don't know whether the new constitution will be accepted by the people
of Burma". 

Shortly after, the junta sent its peace-brokers to meet the KNU leaders. 

They brought with them an ultimatum. The main point in the letter was that
if the KNU did not abandon its armed struggle the military intelligence
would no longer continue its ongoing talks with the KNU. It also stated that
it did not know what the army would do next.

Padoe Mahn Sha said, "We thought we were talking to the Slorc government but
finally we realised that we were dealing with the intelligence service."

In Burma, all ceasefire talks have been initiated by Lt Gen Khin Nyunt's
intelligence faction. There is a speculation that the army can no longer
wait for an outcome from the talks - army leaders are certain that the
Karens are dragging their feet, so the former have decided to take military
actions.

The generals proved that they don't believe in talking but shooting.

Certainly, Padoe Mahn Sha is displeased with the offensive. 
"They [Slorc] say they are ready to talk with us but they are sending out
troops." Padoe Mahn Sha said that was the Slorc's old manner of working. But
using force will not make any difference for the KNU as it will to stick to its
demands, said the soft-spoken secretary.

Padoe Mahn Sha said the KNU doesn't want to go back to fighting but wants to
resume the talks. "We have met four times, we don't want to go back
fighting. That's why we should continue to talk", he stated. 

But it seems generals in Rangoon are not listening. Padoe Mahn Sha insisted
that the KNU won't surrender because of the attacks or battlefield defeat.
"We were prepared [for possible battle] but the country and people will
suffer a lot", he said.

The KNU remains committed to the dialogue but the current offensive does not
weaken KNU's determination to continue the struggle for genuine peace with
the emphasis on political means, he said. (TN)

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BKK POST:EU UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT BURMESE ROLE IN ASEM
February 14, 1997
Saritdet Marukatat and Nussara Sawatsawang, Singapore

ANALYSIS / ASEAN-EUROPE

Europeans might accept Rangoon's membership of Asean as a fait accompli, but
Burma will remain a pariah state.

The European Union, which has failed to dissuade Asean from including Burma
in an expanded grouping, has signalled a reluctance to admit the Burmese
into the inter-regional dialogue.

As a ceremony taking place here today will show, the EU agreed to allow
Vietnam, as Asean's latest member, to accede to the 1980 Asean-EU agreement
that provides for regular ministerial consultations and co-operation between
the two groupings.

"[But] I do not think EU ministers will be willing to ratify the treaty to
include Burma... when they are requested by Asean," said an EU delegate.

Existing members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations - Brunei,
Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam -
announced last November they would admit Burma, Cambodia and Laos
"simultaneously" as part of the founding fathers' plan to bring all 10
Southeast Asian nations under the one roof.

The move is widely expected to take place in Kuala Lumpur, this year's
standing committee chairman, in July to coincide with Asean's 30th anniversary.

Asean and EU capital cities take turns hosting annual ministerial
discussions under the agreement sealed 17 years ago.

At the same time, Asean and EU delegates have made clear Burma would not be
admitted into a broader forum they launched in Bangkok in March last year.
China, Japan and South Korea join Asean and EU member states in the
Asia-Europe Meeting (Asem), which is due to hold its second summit of heads
of government in London in early 1998.

A new member could only be admitted with the consensus of all 25 existing
members of the Asem forum, the delegates pointed out.

But Singapore-based analysts expressed confidence that the EU would not be
confrontational over the Burma issue as Europeans also need Burma's natural
resources, see market prospects in Burma's 46-million strong population, and
want to boost trade with increasingly prosperous Asean member states.

European companies rank among the top 10 direct foreign investors in Burma,
according to the Burmese Ministry of National Development and Planning.

Withdrawing their businesses from Burma would leave Asean firms there
uncontested, noted analysts.

"EU has a lot of economic problems. I don't think it will discount Asean in
this kind of confrontation," said one analyst. Ultimately, national interest
will override other considerations, he added.

"There will be a lot of light and sounds, but this is how the world operates."

According to EU statistics, the union is Asean's second largest export
market and the third largest trading partner after Japan and the United
States. EU exports to Asean last year rose 19.6 percent, taking the trade
balance from a 2.5 billion Ecu deficit in 1994 to a 0.85 billion EU surplus
- the first time the scale had tipped in the EU's favour.

Europe accounts for 14.1 percent of overall investment in Asean, ahead of
the United States, but behind Japan, with an average of US$2,666 million
(66,650 million baht) per year between 1990 and 1993.

Although Denmark advocated economic pressure on Burma following the death in
custody of Anglo-Burmese honorary consul James Leander Nichols last June,
Britain after the elections in May might concentrate more on economic rather
than political issues. This certainly is the priority of the Labour Party,
said the Singapore-based analyst.

Moreover, the EU is expected to be preoccupied with political tensions among
member states rather than external affairs beyond Europe, the analyst added.
The question of expanding the North-Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato),
Russia's role in the region, and the protracted war in Bosnia are key concerns.

For Asean, there is no question that Burma will be integrated. But Permanent
Secretary for Foreign Affairs Saroj Chavanaviraj, who would like the EU to
give development aid to Asean's prospective members, recently noted that
Rangoon might find limited help because of its political problems.

However the Asean-EU relationship develops with Burma somewhere in between,
interdependence is a fact we all have to live with.(BP)

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NATION: NARONGCHAI CANCELS BURMA TRIP IN WAKE OF SPENDING CUTS 
February 12, 1997 (abridged)

Commerce Minister Narongchai Akrasenee abruptly postponed his trip to Burma
to defend his government's budget cuts before the House Committee on
Economic Affairs, said officials. Narongchai originally planned to visit
Burma on Feb 19 in line with the Commerce Ministry policy of promoting trade
with neighbouring countries. However, he decided to postpone the trip until
April. According to Sriwat Suwan, an official from the commercial office
based in Rangoon, Narongchai planned to negotiate the possibility of opening
more border check points with the Burmese. In addition, the minister was
planning to discuss how the two countries should cooperate under the Western
seaboard scheme. Indonesian President Suharto and Malaysian Prime Minister
Dr Mahathir Mohamud also plan to visit Burma shortly.  Burma is Thailand's
most active trading partner with two-way trade totalling Bt12 billion each
year. However, investments between the two countries have yet to become
active, largely because of complicated domestic regulations, said the source. 

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DVB: PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT
February 14, 1997

Due to bad reception in Burma, The Democratic Voice of Burma is changing its
transmission frequencies as of Saturday 15 February 1997. 
First Transmission: 
5:30-5:55 p.m. BST (11:00 - 11:25 UTC) on 19 Metre Band at 15175 MHz
Second Transmission:
9:00-9:25 p.m. BST (14:30 - 14:55 UTC) on 25 Metre Band at 11850 MHz

DEMOCRATIC VOICE OF BURMA-OSLO, NORWAY
Fax: 47 2236-2525     E-mail: dvb@xxxxx

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