SLORC downfall... ???

[tun@siggy]

I posted a following teaser, though may be flawed, to the Net a while back.
Gott is an theorist in Astromony. I think it is called Super Capunican (sp)
theory. They way things are going lately, Gott's theory might be right after
all.

ct
   -------------------------------------------------------
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 1996 22:33:11 -0700 (PDT)
To: tun@siggy
Subject: SLORC downfall (brain teaser)

/* Written  6:55 PM  Aug 20, 1996 by tun@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx in igc:reg.burma */
/* ---------- "SLORC downfall (brain teaser)" ---------- */


Using Gott's ( I will get correct spelling next time) hypothesis , if 
a causal observer is witnessing SLORC's existance during their
begining of the middle 50% of their left time, ie: (assumption
of 8 years 25% mark), with 50% certainty that SLORC could last another
2.3 years to 24 years. yikes!!

If you are witnessing SLORC's existance at 25% mark,

	 0%      25%      50%      75%        100%
         |        |        |        |          |
         +--------+--------+--------+----------+
                 8 yrs    16       24        32 yrs
                  ^                 ^
                  |                 |
                  +-- middle 50% ---+

However,  if you assume that you are witnessing SLORC's existance at 75% mark,
There is up to 25% chance that they will last another 2.6 years

	 0%      25%      50%      75%        100%
         |        |        |        |          |
         +--------+--------+--------+----------+
                 2.6      5.2       8        10.6 yrs
                  ^                 ^
                  |                 |
                  +-- middle 50% ---+

Gott uses his model on Broadway shows and he was correct with 
the result on much higher confident level of 95%.
One can say with 95% confident that SLORC will last another .2 years to
320 years!! ouch...


Ct