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NEED FOR NEW TIES
Need for new ties
Dipankar Banerjee on Indo-Myanmar relations
The Hidustan Times, 15/10/96
The low Patkai range covers the eastern flank of India. It has
never been a major obstacle. Through it have passed
numerous people in both directions. Many communities of
eastern India trace their origin to migration from Southeast
Asia. Even before the Christian era the Southern Silk route
from Chengdu, the capital of Sichun province in China, came
to eastern India through Myanmar. As New Delhi develops a
deliberate "Look East" foreign policy and attempts to
integrate with the dynamic economies of Southeast Asia, it is
time to take a fresh look at the country immediately across
these hills.
Myanmar was a part of the British Indian empire till 1937. On
its independence India was the first to accord it recognition.
An immediate assistance of tanks, artillery and motors helped
save Yangon from the rebels who had almost reached its
suburbs. More than any others country in East Asia, it was
Myanmar which was the candidate for an economic miracle.
Its enormous natural resources, educated people and an
efficient judicial system were its major assets. But a turbulent
decade of democracy was followed by General Ne Win's rule
from 1962. His Burmese road to Socialism' and deliberate
isolation from the world utterly impoverished the country. A
new group of general took over after the students movement
in September 1988, and called themselves the Standing Law
and Order Restoration Committee (SLORC).
The SLORC has provided a stable government, not a
democratic one. Its one attempt at democracy in 1990 proved
a disaster. Aung San Suu Kyi's movements today remain
restricted though she is no longer under house arrest. She is
probably immensely popular, but I did not notice in Myanmar
even a trace of disturbance in Yangon during the late
September incident. The SLORC is by no means a repressive
government like many martial law regimes of West Asia and
Africa. Its general build Pagodas and take part religious
processions than crack heads. Buddhism is deeply ingrained in
its people and tolerance and compassion characterise the
country. A convention of selected representatives to form a
constitution has been meeting on and off since 1993. A senior
official claims that the process is a about two-thirds complete.
He feels that it should evolve slowly through consensus.
Many positive developments have taken place in the last few
years and the country is slowly but surely on the road
progress.
Almost all insurgencies have ended. This happened not so
much through state violence as by persuasion, adjustment and
accommodation. Even the Communist Party of Burma
dissolved suddenly in 1989 through mutiny. Khun Sa, the
fearsome drug lord, was probably bought over. Only a faction
of the Karens are entire nation in under central control,
though admittedly somewhat tenuous.
Myanmar is looking outwards and integrating steadily with
the world. It was accepted as an 'observer' in the ASEAN in
1996. Full membership will follow sooner than later. The
Malaysian Premier Mahathir Mohamad has said it might
happen as early as the 30th anniversary of the organisation in
1997. Meanwhile it has opened up its economy. The results
were slow in coming, but the last three years have been a near
ten per cent growth in its GDP. Bu August 31, 1996
investments worth US $4.3 billion were approved. The bulk
of it is in oil and gas, hotel and tourism, real estate and
mining. Much more needs to be done in infrastructure. The
potential is clearly there.
The SLORC is building bridges, developing inland water
transport along the Erawaddy and expanding ports. Four
Light Infantry Divisions of the Tatmadaw are undertaking a
major railway construction project south of Mandalay.
Yangon is slowly attempting to regain its lost glory. The year
1996 has been declared a "Visit Myanmar Year". Clearly
Myanmar today is not what some time ago and definitely not
what is often portrayed by the media in the west.
Before examining the possibilities of Indo-Myanmar relations,
it may be pertinent to briefly assess the state and significance
of Beijing's interactions with Yangon. The incidents of 1988
(Myanmar) and 1989 (Tiananmen in China) brought both
countries close. A military assistance package of US $1.4
billion from Beijing boosted the Tatmadaw's capability. A
steady stream of high level visit in both directions has
strengthened political relations. Trade, both official and non-
official, is booming and extends up to Mandalay.
But this relationship has also to be seen in perspective. The
arms sales is more an instrument of influence designed to
enhance dependency rather than a strategic threat to
Myanmar's neighbours. It has strengthened the Tatmadaw's
capability to tackle its insurgencies but not attempt a major
war. There is great disenchantment in the Army with the
vintage and quality of Chinese equipment. The assistance too
is petering out. The SLORC would like to get out of a
dependency syndrome as quickly as possible. In a market
economy as in China today, state subsidy for political gains is
not easy to develop or sustain. AS a result China has
withdrawn from many construction and other infrastructure
projects in the last two years. There is hardly any Chinese
assistance east of Erawaddy. China's economic presence at
Mandalay though significant is much exaggerated. My visit
there in end-September clearly showed no outwards signs of
such a presence.
How should India approach Myanmar? there are two ways in
which to took at a border. One as a barrier, to block hostile
forces, influences and ideas. In recent years India has often
followed this approach. The other is as a gateway- an
opening, for interaction in all its forms, especially for
commerce. Increasingly around the world and especially in
east Asia the latter perception dominates. Trade triangles and
quadrilaterals are opening up linking up natural economic
territories (NETs) astride artificial borders. China and
southeast Asia are actively involved in creating such an
economic space. There are enormous possibilities of opening
up once again the southern silk route.
More important, it is with Myanmar that we need to redefine
our relations. A return to the principles of Panchasheela,
where strict noninterference in internal affairs is the credo,
should be our objective. Just as we would brook no foreign
interference in our domestic conditions, let us not impose our
ideas on others. Our cause and national interests would be
served better by a more pragmatic approach. A relation of
partnership with our neighbour east surely a better policy and
provide a constructive way of influencing developments.
It is not anybody's case that mutual cooperation is essential to
deal with insurgencies in India or Myanmar. These are
essentially domestic problems and can be resolved only
within. India is much too strong a nation to need anyone's
assistance in this, only if it would get its action in order. But
the larger question of stability and development, which are the
fundamental issues today, needs joint effort. Interactions
across the border will take place. Geo-economic condition s
point irrevocably in that direction. It is best to do this in a
planned and coordinated manner through effective border
management and state encouragement. Much work needs to
be done. Roads and railways have to be opened, bridges
constructed and infrastructure put in place. It will take time,
but a beginning needs to be made now.
Even more than a 'gateway', it is a bridge that we need to
develop. A bridge that links people based on partnership for
mutual benefit.