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Burma: Article by Beril Lintner FEE



Subject: Burma: Article by Beril Lintner FEER

Subject: Article by Beril Lintner

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JUNTA STEPS UP PR BATTLE
Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest

Thailand Times
Sun., Feb. 20, 1994

by Bertil Lintner

When on February 14 US Congressman Bill Richardson became the first
non-family member to visit Burma's detained opposition leader, Aung
San Suu Kyi, the ruling military may have had the prospect of
international propaganda gains in mind.  The UN's Commission on
Human Rights is meeting in Geneva next week to discuss, among other
things, the human-rights situation in Burma.

Last year, the commission's special rapporteur submitted a report
which was extremely critical of the regime in power in Rangoon.  As
long as they're being condemned like this, billions of dollars
worth of aid money and loans from the IMF and other international
monetary institutions will remain blocked.  The Burmese government
has realized that its costing them quite a lot to keep Aung San Suu
Kyi under house arrest.  "They must give the illusion that
something is happening" a Rangoon-based observer said.

That the ruling junta actually has no intention to release her
became obvious the day after Richardson's visit to Aung San Suu
Kyi's lakeside villa on University Avenue in Rangoon, where she has
been incarcerated since 20 July 1989.  Under existing laws, she can
be held for a maximum of five years without trial, and that period
expires on 20 July this year.  But, perhaps not surprisingly--and
lending credence to the caution observed by the skeptics--the
deputy head of Burma's powerful secret police, the Directorate of
the Defense Services Intelligence, LTC Kyaw Win, stated on Feb. 1
5 that she will remain under house arrest "until at least next
year."  His argument was that the first year of her detention was
an initial "arrest period" and therefore did not count.

But whatever the military's intentions may or may not be, Aung San
Suu Kyi, for the first time since 1989, has been able to speak out
and have her message conveyed to world leaders, the international
community--and to her own followers inside Burma, who will be
hearing her statements over the Burmese service of the Voice of
America.

In an interview with a New York Times correspondent who accompanied
Richardson she said that "whatever they [the military government]
do to me, that's between them and me; I can take it.  What's more
important is what they're doing to the country--it must be
exhausting for them to go on lying.  Elections were promised,
elections were held, and yet the military held onto power despite
its defeat at the polls.  The people feel cheated..[but] they
should not be scared."  Richardson himself hopes that his visit may
help pave the way for a process of possible tasks between what he
termed "the two most important persons in the country": opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi and military strong-man LTG Khin Nyunt, the
head of the DDSI.  "This is the message I conveyed to both of them. 
You must  talk to each other.  Aung San Suu Kyi readily agreed. 
Khin Nyunt said he did not want to engage in any "political
dialogue", although he said "talks" would be possible.  But even so
I think this is the beginning of something that could lead to
national reconciliation."

Other observers argue that the entire exercise may  be
counterproductive: "By allowing visits like this one, the Burmese
military can create the impression that Aung San Suu Kyi's
detention is a bit more humane--so it could give the military a
pretext to extend the detention order instead of releasing her,"
one source said.

But despite such warnings by many skeptics, the inadvertent and
inescapable outcome of the meeting in Rangoon earlier this week is
that Aung San Suu Kyi is back in the limelight after years of
silence.  Speaking at a press conference in Bangkok on Wednesday,
Richardson was noticeably impressed by the lady he had met, the
winner of the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize: "She's the most popular
person in Burma.  She said the people must be united if they want
democracy.  She told her followers not to be scared of the ruling
military.  She's a woman who stands for the best ideals of
democracy."  He added that Burma's problems cannot be settled
unless Aung San Suu Kyi is part of that solution.

Given Aung San Suu Kyi's domestic popularity and international
respectability, Richardson's recognition of her role in any future
political development in Burma is hardly surprising.  But he may
have misjudged the situation by focusing solely on Khin Nyunt.  The
official head of the ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council
is Gen. Than Shwe, not Khin Nyunt and formal hierarchy is very
important in a Burmese context: Than Shwe may not be pleased to
hear that he has been side-lined in this way," a Burmese observer
noted.

It is also widely believed that Khin Nyunt may have used the
occasion to strengthen his own rather shaky position within the
ruling elite.  Real power in Burma today may lie in the hands of a
small, inner circle of military intelligence officers, led by Khin
Nyunt on the military side.  But all of them have been hand-picked
by the ailing strongman Gen Ne Win, who seized power in 1962 and
first introduced military rule in Burma.

These relatively junior-and comparatively well educated-officers
are not popular with the mainstream military which is made up of
battle hardened field commanders who have risen through the ranks. 
A diplomat in Rangoon says that Burma today is run by a tripartite
alliance of convenience: "there's the intelligence apparatus led by
Khin Nyunt on the one had and the field commanders led by [army
commander-in-chief] LTG Maung Aye on the other.  SLORC chairman
Than Shwe sits on top of this, balancing the two forces.  And Ne
Win is the overall godfather who guarantees stability and
continuity.

But Ne Win will turn 83 in May this year, and he is suffering from
serious disorders, including most probably prostate cancer.  With
Ne Win removed from the equation, the delicate balance which Than
Shwe is maintaining may change.  "Many consider Khin Nyunt an
inexperience upstart" a Rangoon-based diplomate says.  "He lacks
combat experience and his is in power mainly because he enjoys the
protection of Ne Win."

Many more experienced officers, although they have always been
loyal to the state, are also reported to feel uncomfortable about
being kept under surveillance by khin Nyunt and his powerful secret
police.  "Khin Nyunt keeps files on everybody," the diplomat says. 
But perhaps not for much longer, if Ne Win dies this year.

Many Burmese argued that the two most important figures in the
country are not Khin Nyunt and Aung San Suu Kyi--but Ne Win and
Aung San Suu Kyi.  With Ne Win out of the picture--and with him
perhaps also his protege Khin Nyunt--the Burmese political scene
may be ready for meaningful change.  This obviously is why Aung San
Suu Kyi now has chosen to speak out at this time.  Seen in
perspective, Richardson's visit to Rangoon may have a much greater
impact on Burma's future than even he anticipated.  And, clearly,
Aung San Suu Kyi is bound to play an important rule in that future.